Russian attack from Belarus?
Ukraine soldier on chances of success - Kremlin needs "150,000 soldiers"
Created: 01/04/2023, 16:00
Training Ukrainian soldiers in the Chernihiv region of northern Ukraine, near the Belarusian border (icon image, September 2022).
© IMAGO/Pavlo Bahmut/ NurPhoto
Experts consider a Russian offensive from Belarus to be unlikely, but not out of the question.
One Ukrainian soldier believes that the chances of success are slim anyway.
Chernihiv - Observers have been warning of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory for weeks.
Around 20,000 Russian soldiers are said to be stationed on Belarusian territory.
The Belarusian military caused a stir in December with a preparedness exercise by its armed forces.
In an interview with the
Kyiv Post
, a Ukrainian soldier has now assessed the chances of success of a Russian offensive from the neighboring country from his point of view.
Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarus: soldier sees little chance of success
A Ukrainian soldier stationed on the defensive line to Belarus does not see a great chance of success for a Russian attack from the neighboring country.
One argument he cited was the difficult terrain: the border area is bordered by the Dnipro River on one side and the Desna River on the other, the soldier, under the alias "Chik", told the
Kyiv Post
.
“Russians have been trapped here before.
In the spring, they built a pontoon across the Desna River to bypass Chernihiv, but they failed,” the Ukrainian army officer said.
In his view, the Russian soldiers would be defeated if they came to this area again.
The river is a better obstacle than barbed wire or a wall.
By April, Russian forces had withdrawn from the region.
Ukraine soldier sure: Russia needs “at least 150,000 soldiers”
The Ukrainian fighter also gave logistical reasons why, in his view, such a Russian attack was doomed to failure.
“Also [the Russians] need more forces to launch a frontal attack.
The Russian command would need at least 150,000 soldiers for this.” According to estimates, there are currently 20,000 Russian troops in Belarus.
According to the soldier "Chik", the training grounds in Belarus can accommodate a maximum of 90,000 fighters.
"Technically, they can't prepare for an offensive until February or March."
The only thing that Russia can achieve is to divert part of the Ukrainian armed forces and thus tie up forces, said the soldier who has been stationed in the border area for four months.
According to the think tank ISW, the former Russian military commander Igor Girkin recently spoke about the possibility of a diversionary maneuver on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
Moscow could do this "to withdraw Ukrainian forces from other parts of the theater of war."
However, the Russian military could not effectively carry out an "offensive operation to conquer territory" in the border area.
Ukrainian missile in Belarus: Concerns of Lukashenko entering the war were high
Russia and Belarus are allies, but so far the Belarusian ruler Lukashenko has not allowed himself to be pressured into entering the war.
A few weeks ago, however, Minsk and Moscow decided on joint maneuvers and units.
Russia is also sending more material and soldiers to the neighboring country, has apparently set up a field hospital near the border and also wants to expand an air force base in Belarus into a logistics hub.
The US war experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank consider it unlikely, but not impossible, that Putin's ally Alexander Lukashenko would enter the war.
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While Russia is currently facing increasing attacks on military targets on its own territory, Minsk also reported the impact of a Ukrainian missile on Belarusian territory last week.
Concerns on the part of Ukraine were high that this could serve as a pretext for the entry of ally Russia into the war.
"Either the unguided anti-aircraft missile was fired unintentionally because of the crew's poor training, or the missile was defective, or it was a deliberate provocation by the Ukrainian armed forces," Belarusian air defense chief Kirill Kazantsev commented on the incident.
The fears of a Belarusian entry into the war did not materialize at first.
Video: During maneuvers in Belarus - Putin paid a visit to Lukashenko
Rocket hit in Belarus: Kyiv blames Russia
On the Ukrainian side, however, Russia was held responsible for the rocket hit in Belarus.
Previously, Ukraine repelled a massive Russian missile attack, including in the western Ukrainian region of Lviv.
"Therefore, a provocation by the terrorist state of Russia cannot be ruled out, which has chosen a flight path of its cruise missiles in such a way as to provoke their launch in the airspace over Belarus," the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
A similar incident had already occurred in November, when a Ukrainian missile fell on Polish territory.