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United States: five minutes to understand the mess for the election of the “speaker” among the Republicans

2023-01-04T15:58:59.779Z


By failing to be elected to lead the House of Representatives in the first round of voting, Republican Kevin McCarthy ended a


The situation has not been seen for a century.

For the first time since 1923, the House of Representatives failed on Tuesday to elect a "speaker" in the first round, the equivalent of the President of the National Assembly in France.

The process will continue this Wednesday, but could last several more days.

Le Parisien explains this mess to you.

Three rounds of voting and still no winner

The Republicans won in November the absolute majority of seats in the lower house of Congress, that of representatives.

They therefore had to seize the head of the Chamber, the prized post of “speaker”.

With 222 seats out of 435, however, they only have a very small lead over the Democrats.

In the event of internal dissension, which has been legion since the beginning of the 2010s, it does not take many disgruntled people for the balance to tip against them.

This is exactly what is happening with Kevin McCarthy, the Republican nominee and decried by several members of his own camp.

In the first round of voting, he won 203 votes, 19 less than his group as a whole and was even beaten by the Democratic candidate, Hakeem Jeffries, who obtained 212 votes.

But none of them reached an absolute majority of 218 votes.

A new vote then took place, with the same result.

And on the third ballot, Kevin McCarthy even lost a vote within his camp.

Results of the races: the Americans went to bed without an elected "speaker", with 212 Democratic votes for Jeffries, 202 for McCarthy and 20 for Jim Jordan, his main Republican rival within the dissident group.

PIZZA on its way to MCCARTHY office….

Never a good sign pic.twitter.com/ie9jLj9mtc

— Haley Talbot (@haleytalbotnbc) January 3, 2023

Trump versus the Trumpists

But who are these dissidents who deviate from the Republican voting instructions?

“These are ultraconservatives, former members of the Tea Party, Trumpists”, summarizes Jean-Éric Branaa, specialist in the United States, lecturer at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas and author of “Geopolitics of the United States (PUF).

Gathered under the name “Freedom Caucus”, they hold radical ideas and are very determined not to let McCarthy take the lead in the House: “They consider him not conservative enough.

Five of them said they would never vote for him.

»

However, Kevin McCarthy received the support of Donald Trump, renewed this Wednesday noon.

So why would a group of Trumpists block the election of a Trump-backed candidate?

“Because they no longer support the former president, explains Jean-Éric Branaa.

They campaign for Trump's ideas, but no longer want him politically.

»

"We're embarrassed. Pop, pop, pop, get in line, quickly..." pic.twitter.com/gqM4O2xr5W

— jean-eric branaa (@BranaaJean) January 4, 2023

Lauric Henneton, lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, evokes for his part a "playground with gangs and a kind of reign of the strongest" and a Kevin McCarthy "without any authority ".

"This group has an extraordinary opportunity to be heard: the majority is so short that it will rain or shine," argues Jean-Éric Branaa.

For each decision of the House, it will be enough for only four or five elected officials to want to oppose to force their camp to negotiate.

"It will be unmanageable for the next two years," says the teacher.

“Traditional” Republicans do not hesitate to denounce the obstacle posed by this group, renaming it “the 20 Taliban” or “the chaos caucus”, according to CNN.

And the longer it lasts, the more the party fractures.

Proof of this is the additional vote acquired by Jim Jordan in the third round of voting.

A party meeting is due to be held this Wednesday afternoon (midday local time) before a new vote takes place.

Two possibilities then: "Either they return to a form of reason and resign themselves to voting for McCarthy, hoping for concessions, this is the most rational solution, or they feel encouraged on social networks and try to raise the auction", summarizes Lauric Henneton.

In 1856, it took two months and 133 ballots for the House of Representatives to appoint an elected leader…

The threat of a shutdown

The main concern now remains that this conflict does not find a solution.

Because while the chamber is occupied with these operational issues, "its work cannot begin", recalls Lauric Henneton, who underlines that for lack of a "speaker", the deputies have not even taken the oath yet.

And since every public dollar spent in the United States must have been voted by Congress, that means that as long as the House of Representatives is monopolized by this election, it votes nothing else.

No financing for the American economy or society, no financing for Ukraine… The economic system could find itself de facto paralyzed while waiting for an unblocking, which would cause a phenomenon similar to the shutdown, when the administrations of the country are closing, for lack of a budget vote.

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2023-01-04

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