United States: mess in Congress, Republicans unable to elect their new "speaker"

The American parliament, the Congress, finds itself in a rare and delicate situation.

While the Republican party, which represents the opposition to President Joe Biden, won the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the equivalent of the National Assembly, it failed on Tuesday to put itself agreement on the name of a president, the "speaker".

This hadn't happened in 100 years.

Strong tensions in the Republican ranks are the cause of this situation.

Big favorite to replace Nancy Pelosi, the 50-year-old Kevin McCarthy failed, after three successive votes, to calm the revolt.

It comes from a group of supporters of Donald Trump (president from January 2017 to January 2021) who consider him too moderate.

The elected officials agreed to suspend their votes until Wednesday morning, the time to negotiate behind the scenes.

Donald Trump criticized at the end of the day a "superfluous agitation" within a party whose nomination he wants to win back the White House, the seat of the presidency, in 2024.

The Republicans, who seized the majority in the lower house in the November elections, have promised to use their new counter-power by opening a series of investigations into Joe Biden.

But the launch of such hostilities is paralyzed by these internal quarrels: the elected members of the House of Representatives cannot officially take the oath, and therefore open the slightest investigation, as long as a president has not been appointed.

In 1856, it took two months and 133 ballots to unblock the situation

The election of the "speaker", the third most important figure in American politics after the president and the vice-president, requires a majority of 218 votes.

Kevin McCarthy fails to reach this threshold because of the attitude of twenty elected Trumpists.

“We should not take it personally, but the future of our country depends on it,” assured Chip Roy, a turbulent elected representative from Texas.

McCarthy's candidacy is however widely supported within his party: the announcement of his nomination Tuesday in the hemicycle was received by a great standing ovation in the Republican ranks.

At the start of the third round, some annoyance began to set in, with the more moderate Republicans urging their colleagues to line up around Kevin McCarthy.

“We came here to accomplish things,”

Faced with this situation, the Democrats opposed laughter.

Throughout this procedure, Joe Biden's party has since united around the candidacy of Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, regularly applauding the New York elected official to the sounds of "Hakeem, Hakeem, Hakeem!"

".

But the chosen one does not have enough votes to access the perch either.

The election of a President of the House of Representatives could be a matter of a few hours... or several weeks: in 1856, the elected members of Congress only agreed after two months and 133 turns .

A situation that could benefit Joe Biden

Kevin McCarthy seems to want to give pledges to this conservative fringe to prevent history from stuttering: in 2015, he had already narrowly failed to become Speaker of the House of Representatives in the face of a revolt from the right wing of the party.

But he can't afford to go overboard and alienate moderate Republicans.

Although its room for maneuver is reduced, it currently has no credible competitor.

Only the name of Ohio elected official Jim Jordan circulates as a possible alternative, without his chances seeming serious.

With Republicans in the majority in the House, Joe Biden and the Democrats won't be able to push through big new projects.

But with a Senate in the hands of the Democrats, neither will their rivals.

Will they entrench themselves in a systematic opposition?

This would require them to come together, while some of their elected officials, as during the vote on the budget before Christmas, voted with the Democrats.

The election of the “speaker” therefore also serves to measure their capacity to cause harm to the president.

Facing a hostile House could be a political boon for Joe Biden, if he confirms his intention to run again in 2024, a decision he is due to announce soon.

The president was also careful not to comment on the republican dissensions, his spokesperson, Karine Jean-Pierre, assuring that the Democratic leader would not “meddle in this process”.

In the event of legislative paralysis, he will undoubtedly blame the blocking on weakened Republicans, hoping to turn the situation to his advantage.