Will France have enough electricity to survive the winter?
Unthinkable only a few months ago, this agonizing question has imposed itself in the public debate as the difficulties accumulated for the tricolor energy system.
War in Ukraine, corrosion affecting nuclear reactors, maintenance delays on power plants caused by the pandemic, sluggish installation of new production capacities... Many factors failed to create a "
perfect storm
", which would have disrupted supply energy of the Hexagon.
To discover
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If the fears of load shedding – these targeted, temporary and organized cuts over time – seem to be gradually receding, as the mercury rises in particular, the month of January remains closely scrutinized by the authorities.
The level of risk for the coming weeks is estimated at "
medium
" by the network manager, RTE.
An analysis also correlated with other elements that are difficult to predict: France will pass the winter without interruption if the efforts of households, businesses and administrations continue and if the weather proves to be lenient.
Read also“There was a form of denial”: 2022, the year when France came close to a catastrophic lack of electricity
Production, consumption, Ecowatt signal, gas reserves... At the start of a critical period for the French energy system,
Le Figaro
has therefore compiled the data shared by the main players such as EDF or RTE, in order to allow you to visualize the evolution of the indicators.
The various graphs will update automatically throughout the winter.
Energy: a tool to visualize the state of the network at a glance
Our first tool allows you to quickly find information on the main components of the French energy system.
In particular, you will find the Ecowatt signal, its counterpart for gas, Ecogaz, as well as the state of the gas reserves available in France.
The data transmitted by EDF also makes it possible to observe the state of the French nuclear fleet, by seeing how many reactors are operating each day.
Finally, the analysis of RTE data highlights how much of the electricity consumed in France was imported.
A way to measure France's increased dependence on its neighbours.
Ecowatt: an essential signal in the event of tension on the network
This is an indicator that the French now know well, as the authorities continue to emphasize its central role over the coming weeks.
A veritable "
electricity weather
forecast", Ecowatt makes it possible to observe the tensions planned - or not - on the network in the near future.
A way for consumers to monitor the state of the system, and for RTE to ask them to make efforts to be sober, under penalty of having to resort to emergency measures, including load shedding.
Read alsoEcowatt, the “electricity weather forecast” on which the government wants to rely to get through the winter
Easy to follow, the Ecowatt signal schematically summarizes the voltage level on the network, according to the expected consumption.
It is divided into three colors - green, orange and red - and offers forecasts over four days, where its counterpart for gas, Ecogaz, offers to see the situation for the next five days.
“
Orange, we have more room.
Red, it is not excluded that we make load shedding unless we all take charge
, “explained at the end of the year the chairman of the executive board of RTE, Xavier Piechaczyk.
In other words, a red signal indicates that efforts must be made on D-Day, otherwise backup means will have to be resorted to.
Production: France remains dependent on its nuclear power
Let us now come to the two key electricity indicators: production and consumption.
First, the production figures, communicated in real time by RTE, underline the overwhelming weight of nuclear power in the tricolor electricity mix.
In 2021, the atom thus weighed nearly 77% of the electricity marketed by EDF, far ahead of hydraulics - 8.6% -, gas - 7% - and renewables - 5.9%.
We then better understand the key issue of restarting the reactors to spend the winter.
The data reworked by us allows you to visualize the production by sector over several days, in order to observe the evolution, in particular for renewables and gas.
Production: sobriety and sacrifices are felt
Last essential part, the national electricity consumption figures are presented compared to previous years.
As the authorities regularly point out, France benefits, in these times of constrained supply, from an equally reduced demand.
The result of the sobriety efforts of the various actors, as well as the sacrifices of industrialists in the face of soaring energy prices.
The comparison with previous years must however be nuanced, the data not taking into account the average temperature, which was particularly mild at the end of 2022.
That being said, the drop in consumption, real and massive, is confirmed week after week, including by integrating this factor.
According to RTE, it reached 8.5% over the last four weeks compared to the average for the last few years, between 2014 and 2019. It "
concerns all sectors: industrial, tertiary and residential
", notes the manager, adding for example that "
aggregate consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors (after adjusting for weather effects) was thus around 6% lower than the 2021 level
".