"Deliberate tactics": Western experts see two reasons for Putin's ceasefire - and one problem

Created: 01/06/2023 11:20 am

By: Florian Naumann

Photo from December 21: Gerasimov, Putin and Shoigu (from left) © Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin Pool/Imago

Was Vladimir Putin's ceasefire calculated?

Western experts see two to three possible reasons.

And a clear indication of a "trick".

Moscow/Washington, DC – Russia has announced a brief truce over Orthodox Christmas in the Ukraine war.

It formally came into force on Friday (January 6) at 10 a.m. Central European Time.

In the night of January 6th, there were apparently heavy artillery attacks – meanwhile, the political observers are concerned with another question: is there a calculation behind the step?

And if so: which one?

For Ukraine, the case quickly became clear.

Presidential adviser Michailo Podoliak warned of a "cynical trap".

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself suspected an excuse from Russia to buy time for regrouping.

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) see even more layers of meaning.

The theses of the West at a glance:

Why is Putin calling for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war?

Pause for realignment:

The ISW speculated that Putin could use the 36-hour ceasefire to give Russian troops time to rest, recover and reorient themselves for further offensives on “critical front sections”.

Such a pause would benefit the Russian military disproportionately and rob Ukraine of the initiative, the experts judged.

US President Joe Biden also saw the ceasefire ordered by Putin as an attempt to gain some breathing space.

On December 25 and the New Year, Putin was ready to “bomb hospitals and kindergartens and churches,” Biden said in Washington on Thursday.

"I think he's just trying to get some air," Biden said.

Ceasefire in Ukraine: "True Protector of Faith" - Putin's Calculation?

Publicity move:

The ISW also suspected a move aimed at the public.

It was a "deliberate information tactic" that Russia had previously resorted to, according to the situation report of January 5 (US time).

One indication is that the step was only announced at short notice - although the date of the Orthodox Christmas was of course known well in advance.

Implementing a ceasefire requires preparation, including from Ukraine.

As late as December 14, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov ruled out a ceasefire.

The aim is now probably to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate and thirsty for battle.

The ISW also saw another dimension: Putin could now present himself as a "true protector of the Christian faith" - in contrast to Ukraine, which according to the Kremlin's representation suppresses religious freedoms.

The Orthodox Church is one of Putin's most important domestic allies.

Shortly before the announcement, Patriarch Kirill had publicly called for a peace over Christmas.

Voices loyal to the Kremlin had already located “Satan” in the Ukraine in the fall.

Appropriately, Putin's confidante Dmitry Medvedev railed against the West and Ukraine on Friday: "You have no faith."

The German military expert Carlo Masala also saw a "trick".

It was "certainly a communication to Russia that the orthodox Christmas is respected," he explained in the ZDF "heute journal".

At the same time, the Kremlin is also providing new arguments for critics of Western arms deliveries.

“Given that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the combat zones, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire and give them the opportunity to pray on Christmas Eve, as well as on the day of the Nativity attend church services.”

The Kremlin's declaration of the 36-hour ceasefire over Orthodox Christmas

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Are problems threatening Putin?

At the same time, it might come as a surprise that Russian military bloggers heavily criticized the move.

According to the ISW, among other things, a blogger previously "embedded" with the Russian troops in the embattled Bakhmut launched an angry tirade.

The Russian soldiers did not want a break, it said: they wanted to "kill every person in the enemy's uniform, regardless of gender and the circumstances that forced these sub-humans into this uniform".

This is probably also a highlight of the fact that Putin is struggling with criticism from two sides - from opponents of the war and hardliners who are demanding more massive blows in the war.

It is also unclear whether the ceasefire will survive its short duration of 36 hours.

Politicians deployed by Moscow in the occupied territories of Ukraine made it clear that if in doubt they were ready to shoot.

Putin's order only applies to offensive actions by the Russian side.

"That doesn't mean we won't respond to enemy provocations!

Or even give the enemy any chance to improve their positions on the front line during these holiday hours," Moscow-appointed governor in Donetsk Denis Puschilin wrote on his Telegram channel on Thursday.

Ukraine's demands:

would Kiev be ready for a ceasefire in principle?

Probably not in the narrower sense.

The country sees only one (simple) way to silence the guns: Presidential adviser Podoliak demanded that Russia "leave the occupied territories - only then will there be a 'temporary ceasefire'."

The European Union sees it similarly.

EU Council President Charles Michel described Russia's ceasefire announcement as hypocritical.

"A withdrawal of Russian troops is the only serious option to restore peace and security," he wrote on Twitter on

Thursday