The political system is on alert and awaiting the decision of the High Court of Justice judges who yesterday heard the petition against the appointment of Aryeh Deri as minister. We do not know what the ruling will be, but senior jurists point to three main scenarios. The coalition and the Shas have already emphasized that they will use all the legal tools available to them in the Knesset To allow Derai to become a minister, so that whatever verdict there is - will have an immediate impact on the parliamentary political actions in the Knesset.
The first scenario -
the court will reject the amendment to the Basic Law, so that the law will be returned to its previous state where the chairman of the Central Election Commission will again be required to question Deri's scandal. If the law is rejected, Deri will be able to choose whether to approach the chairman of the election committee the hard way or for the coalition to rush to enact A superseding clause as she planned to do in any case - to avoid the invalidation of the law in the High Court.
The extended panel discussing the appointment of Deri, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
In light of the fact that both Attorney General Gali Beharve-Miara and Knesset Legal Adviser Sagit Afik told the High Court that in their opinion the court should not interfere in the legislation of the Basic Law, and because it would be a far-reaching step that has no source of authority, it is estimated that the judges will not turn in this direction.
The second scenario -
the judges will not interfere in the amendment of the Basic Law, but will determine that Deri's appointment is not reasonable due to the reason of reasonableness.
It is estimated that this scenario has the higher chances.
In that case, Netanyahu would be required to fire Deri from his position as minister.
According to this scenario - the coalition can cancel the reason for reasonableness in an expedited procedure by law and then re-appoint Deri as a minister, so that the High Court of Justice cannot again reject the appointment on the grounds of unreasonableness. The cancellation of the reason for reasonableness is included in the Levin reform anyway, so if this scenario were Hapoel, the move will rise to the top of the order of priorities.
Netanyahu and Deri, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
However, the cancellation of the reason of reasonableness is not the only one in the administrative law toolbox that the High Court can use to disqualify Deri's appointment. This is a complex legislative procedure that is not yet clear how it will be carried out soon.
Another question that arises, if they choose the route of an expedited cancellation of the reason for reasonableness - will Netanyahu fire Deri until the law is passed or will he remain in his position.
The prevailing assumption is that he will be fired and uphold the High Court ruling.
The third scenario -
the court will not interfere with the Basic Law nor will it reject Deri's appointment on the grounds of unreasonableness.
However, legal sources estimate that the judges will try to find a way to oblige Aryeh Deri to contact the Central Election Commission so that the chairman of the commission can decide on the question of defamation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu clarified in his answer to the petition that it will not be possible to create governmental stability without the appointment of Deri as Minister.
The clear meaning: if Deri's appointment is rejected, the coalition will enter chaos and suffer a heavy blow at the very beginning of its journey.
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