From next Sunday (8th), Hong Kong and the Mainland will carry out the first phase of customs clearance, with 60,000 people going north and 60,000 going south each day.
The implementation of customs clearance between the two places is regarded as injecting new impetus into the retail industry.
According to the latest government data, the total retail sales in the first 11 months of 2022 will still be nearly 20% behind the value of 2019 before the epidemic, when tourists are lacking for most of the time and only rely on "domestic demand". .
Some scholars believe that under the changing structure of the retail industry, domestic demand may not be greatly reduced. On the contrary, the return of tourists to the Hong Kong market may revive the retail industry.
The retail industry is also optimistic about the market conditions after customs clearance. It is estimated that the second half of the year will rebound, and the business is expected to return to about 90% of the level in 2019. However, I believe that the good times from 2010 to 2014 will no longer be seen!
Before the Hong Kong government officially announced the news of customs clearance, the stock market had taken the lead in "profit happiness", and the Hang Seng Index regained 21,000 points; some stocks related to retail consumption and catering have taken the lead in rebounding.
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In fact, as early as the end of September last year, Hong Kong had already implemented the "0+3" entry measure. By the end of the year, the entry restrictions were more comprehensively relaxed. The number of tourists has rebounded sharply. The number of visitors in the first 11 months was nearly 444,000, an increase of 4.4 times year-on-year. There were more than 300,000 mainland tourists, accounting for nearly 70% of the total, a year-on-year increase of more than 4 times, but there is still a long way from the 55.91 million in 2019.
The overall data of the retail industry has also shown improvement. In the first 11 months of last year, under the lack of tourists for most of the time, the total retail sales value exceeded 316.2 billion yuan, a 19.9% drop from the social movement in 2019; The monthly difference is about 28%.
However, the sales data of jewelry and watches, which were favored by mainland tourists in the past, has not rebounded. According to the statistics of the Census and Statistics Department, compared with 2018, the value of related sales still fell by about 50%, and the retail industry is still supported by "domestic demand". .
Deng Juming bluntly said that in the past two or three years, "it was very hard".
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Prince Deng: Relying on the money he earned in the past
Deng Juming, Chairman and CEO of Prince Jewelery & Watch, known as "Prince Deng", said bluntly in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" that the past two or three years have been "hard work", especially in Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui. "Everyone is living on the money they collected in the past."
Liu Kebin, the Kowloon Jewelry, Jade, Gold, Silver and Jewelry Chamber of Commerce also pointed out that before the epidemic, the proportions of local tourists and tourists were 45% and 55% respectively. There were no tourists, and only the local market supported it. Due to social distancing measures and the prohibition of dine-in at the dinner market, only 20% of the customers in the industry remained. Moreover, many wedding banquets were canceled or postponed during the epidemic, which reduced the business with high unit prices by half.
Liu Kebin believes that the business in the first half of the year is expected to return to about 70% of the level in 2019.
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Liu Kebin: Hope to recover 70% of business in the first half of the year
Mainland tourists who have waited and waited are coming back soon. Deng Juming bluntly said that it will help local retail because "the flow of people will naturally bring money." However, it is not expected that there will be many tourists in the first two months. They will mainly be business travelers and visiting relatives. Lord, "Because the explosion is so strong in mainland China, people will not travel rashly. It is expected to see a significant improvement in the second half of the year."
Regarding the views of mainland tourists, he believes that mainland tourists are more mature in terms of shopping than before, and the consumption power of mainland tourists may be weakened due to external factors. Just live in a purse", and even sighed that the good times from 2010 to 2014 could no longer be seen.
Liu Kebin also pointed out that the Lunar New Year is approaching, and the business mainly comes from the sale of gold jewelry related to the zodiac. It is estimated that the business will not improve until March at the earliest, mainly because the peak season for marriages and weddings is expected to continue to increase. He hopes that , business is expected to return to about 70% of the level in 2019, and it is hoped to further increase to 90% in the second half of the year.
In recent years, "medical tourists" have also emerged. Union Health (2138) stated that before the customs closure, medical tourists accounted for about 30 to 40% of the group's revenue. There is an extra push.
During the period of customs closure, the Group was still able to maintain a good relationship with mainland customers who were temporarily unable to make cross-border consumption through the service points in the mainland, and maintained their continuous consumption in the company's ecosystem.
After the switch is further clarified, it is believed that the Group can guide customers to cross-border consumption through effective sales and marketing strategies.
Union Health said that it has noticed the strong demand for vaccines and has started preparations to seize the opportunities brought by the switch.
Yuan Weiji: Domestic demand may not weaken after customs clearance
However, Yuen Wai-ki, an assistant professor at the Department of Economics and Finance at Shue Yan University, is more cautious.
He pointed out that it will take at least a year for the retail industry in Hong Kong to return to normal.
On the contrary, in the past two to three years, the retail industry has relied more on domestic demand. It is believed that domestic demand may not weaken after customs clearance. At the same time, tourists will come to Hong Kong to spend. At that time, the retail sales data "has a chance to hit a new high. Even if it doesn't, the growth rate is fine."
Yuan Weiji estimated that retail sales data will usher in a big rebound.
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Hang Seng: Only saw the stimulus effect of customs clearance on the economy in the second quarter
Xue Junsheng, head of economic research department and chief economist of Hang Seng Bank (0011), also believes that with the customs clearance between the mainland and Hong Kong, the gradual resumption of normal exchanges will have a stimulating effect on Hong Kong's trade, service industry and tourism, but it will not happen all at once. "V-shaped" rebound, returning to pre-epidemic levels.
He explained that after the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures in Hong Kong and the Mainland, it will still take time to observe the impact on society, and the people in the Mainland will also need time to adapt, such as daily life and work, which may disrupt the pace due to the increase in the number of confirmed cases. Therefore, it is estimated that the fastest It will still be in the second quarter of this year or later, when the stimulus effect of customs clearance on the economy will become more obvious.
He pointed out that Hong Kong is still facing difficulties such as economic recession in Europe and the United States, high inflation and continuous interest rate hikes by the central banks of various countries, but the positive impact of customs clearance may help offset the negative factors. It is estimated that Hong Kong’s economy can return to a positive growth rate of 2.5% this year. The customs clearance process is smooth, and further upward adjustments are expected.
Xue Junsheng estimates that Hong Kong's economy can resume growth to at least 2.5% this year driven by news such as customs clearance.
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