Energy crisis, pension reform, rising inflation... Towards an explosion of social anger?

Luc Mary is a writer and historian by training.

He has notably published

These unsung heroes of history

La France enrage

FIGAROVOX.

- Will the future pension reform, the rise in inflation and the cost of energy risk causing social anger to explode in France?

Luke Mary.

-

A priori, all the ingredients are there to blow up the social pot.

A vertiginous rise in prices, a failing health system, traders strangled by the energy crisis, combined with an upcoming announced and already disputed pension reform, everything seems to be combining to lead to a major social crisis.

At least in theory.

Read alsoPoliticians wonder about an explosion of social anger

Because in terms of social history, nothing is written in advance.

The same causes never engender the same effects.

When we autopsy the current social malaise, namely a sectoral crisis coupled with the rise of corporatist movements, both among bakers and among doctors, it does not present all the symptoms of an announced revolution.

Indeed, within this great apparent chaos, each profession defends its cause, but there is no general slogan and even less possibility of national revolution.

Indeed, the combination of demonstrations of opinion by sectors does not necessarily lead to a general and massive social explosion.

In other words, anger collectives are not necessarily synonymous with collective anger.

Moreover,

the media keep announcing a black January.

And history teaches us that it suffices to announce chaos so that it does not occur.

Conversely, one of the greatest social movements in history, namely the Russian Revolution of February 1917, was triggered in the absence of the Bolsheviks and political leadership.

A refugee in Switzerland, Lenin did not even think he knew the revolution during his lifetime...

The biggest stumbling block is the future pension reform.

A ticking time bomb, this may well be necessary given our demographic pressure, but it is nonetheless misunderstood.

And therein lies the danger for the sustainability of social anger.

Luke Mary

In what circles can this anger be expressed?

For the moment, the social movement is disparate and has not generated any strike movement.

Demonstrations remain non-violent, transport is not paralyzed and gasoline is not rationed.

Be that as it may, galloping inflation could generate other problems, such as the cessation of state aid for local authorities;

as a result, SMEs would risk no longer being subcontracted by town halls, causing a cascade of layoffs and a new outbreak of discontent.

There are therefore risks of contagion, if only those linked to the expansion of unemployment, which always generates precariousness and social instability.

All it takes is a spark, like a government misstep, a clumsy statement, or a protest gone wrong.

In February 1848, Sergeant Giacomini's shot on the crowd thus triggered the irreparable.

For the moment, the government is considering the worst (it is to its credit to show prevention), and is releasing a few measures to defuse the social bomb.

Proof of this is the recent announcement made by the Minister for the Economy of a guaranteed electricity rate set at 280 euros per megawatt hour for all VSEs with less than 10 employees, ie around 600,000 companies.

A necessary measure, of course,

Obviously, the biggest stumbling block is the future pension reform.

A ticking time bomb, this may well be necessary given our demographic pressure, but it is nonetheless misunderstood.

And therein lies the danger for the sustainability of social anger.

As for the risks of tipping towards revolution or civil war, we are still far from it.

Generally speaking, any overthrow of power is impossible as long as the forces of order remain loyal.

In January 1919, the German police and army thus defeated the putsch of the Spartacists in Berlin, who wanted to repeat the episode of the Bolsheviks in Petrograd.

Read alsoEnergy crisis: why purchasing power is globally preserved

The energy crisis is particularly affecting bakers, who sometimes see their electricity bills multiply by ten in one year, which has resulted in a rise in the price of bread for consumers.

Are there examples in our history that show that bread is a major player in French revolts?

Surprisingly, the greatest revolutions in France were not born from the rationing of bread, but from a conjunction of factors, especially noticeable in times of conflict.

In 1871, the terrible ordeal of "the Paris Commune" is directly linked to the defeat of France before Prussia.

If we go back to the Old Regime, which was very rich in revolts (more than 8,000 were counted between the reigns of Louis XIII and Louis XVI), society was regularly shaken by popular uprisings against the tax authorities, in particular against the Gabelle, the famous salt tax.

Without questioning the royal power, the Croquants, the Pitauds and other Nu-Pieds revolted against his servants deemed corrupt.

Be that as it may, certain revolts are really born of poverty and the excessive price of bread.

In the heart of the war of the league of Augsburg, under Louis XIV, the famine is thus such that people come to plunder the bakeries and to attack the convoys of grain.

We can also mention the flour war in 1775 and, to a lesser extent, the uprising of the Canuts in Lyon in 1831. “

".

From the middle of the 19th century, under the influence of Marxist ideas, the revolt took on a more ideological dimension.

"Working classes, dangerous classes" is repeated in the opulent salons of the Third Republic.

Today, revolts are no longer carried out by highly politicized unions, as in the blessed days of communism, but by grassroots collectives.

The social future becomes all the more unpredictable.

Even more than inflation and the social consequences of the war in Ukraine, it is this climate of permanent mistrust with regard to the political world and the media in general that is the most worrying.

Luke Mary

Like the Yellow Vests, will future revolts crystallize around class opposition, in your opinion?

Contrary to what one might think, most revolts are conservative and not progressive.

In other words, social advances are considered by the base or those who represent them as definitive achievements.

So there is no question of reconsidering retirement at age 60 or the week at 35 hours.

On the other hand, the hatred of the rich is a constant in our long history.

Rightly or wrongly, the bosses of Big Business are systematically the obvious scapegoats of the Crisis for the supporters of the extremist Left.

Read alsoYellow Vests: "Inflation will not be enough to revive a large-scale spontaneous movement"

Today, despite the failure of Leninist communism, the dimension of “class struggle” has not disappeared from social struggles but has taken another form, that of anti-elitism.

Even more than inflation and the social consequences of the war in Ukraine, it is this climate of permanent mistrust with regard to the political world and the media in general that is the most worrying.

Considered rightly or wrongly as collaborators of power deemed corrupt, journalists are the target of all criticism.

"

Can we read recently on a website of yellow vests.

This discrepancy between reality strictly speaking and people's perception of it is a real Gordian knot that is difficult to cut.

The only certainty that we can have is this: the challenge of power is in the DNA of the French.

Sooner or later, a great popular uprising will break out, but no one knows the day yet...

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