That the new president of Brazil, Lula da Silva, and his government have emerged strengthened in their response to the coup attempt by Bolsonaro's hosts is undeniable, since the rapid and forceful response has served not only to frighten them but also to unite society in favor of democracy.
Now the question being asked in political circles is whether or not the defense of democracy and the new government are interested in the ex-president of the ultra-right, on vacation in the United States, where he took refuge after his defeat at the polls, return or not to the country
One fact is true.
Just after the failure of the attempt by his followers to attack the headquarters of the three state powers in Brasilia, Bolsonaro has just announced to CNN Brazil: "I came to the United States to stay until the end of January but I intend to anticipate my return" .
One of the excuses given is that he had to be hospitalized due to his already known intestinal problems and he believes that in Brazil his doctors know his clinical picture better.
Knowing Bolsonaro's way of distorting reality and acting rather in the shadows and sheltered by lies, there is a question as to why, just after the failed fascist coup, he has decided to return from exile.
It is true that in the United States some Democratic deputies have begun to request the expulsion of the former Brazilian president, but it is also true that in Brazil a series of serious accusations await him that could lead to his being prosecuted and imprisoned, something that now with the new government would be easier.
It is still difficult, despite Lula's victory supported worldwide, to know the real political strength enjoyed by the loser and who are the businessmen who finance his most radical followers who do not resign themselves to his defeat.
Not counting the extent to which Lula enjoys the calm support of the Armed Forces that until yesterday supported the encampments in front of his headquarters of the Bolsonaristas who were calling for a military coup.
Lula has appeared firm and confident in the face of the first serious test of his government caused by the losers of Bolsonaro with his attack on State institutions that have impacted the world, but now he has the power to confront them in his hand.
Will it be better with Bolsonaro outside or inside the country?
It is true that not all the millions of Brazilians who voted for Bolsonaro can be considered coup leaders.
But it is also true that this has been the time that Lula has won the elections with the smallest margin, barely 2% of the votes, and that in a Datafolha study last week only 51% positively considered his government against 49% of Bolsonaro.
Lula knows that Bolsonaro will not give up so easily since he considers the millions who voted for him to be his faithful followers, something that has turned out to be false given the rejection of the vast majority of the country to the frustrated coup.
If Bolsonaro has decided to return to the country, it is very possible that it is with the hope of not losing the leadership of those who continue to support him and with the hope that his great friend Trump can win the elections.
At the same time, if the loser returns, Lula has all the necessary cards to annul any attempted uprising.
And this because before fleeing to the United States there were a series of serious accusations against Bolsonaro in the Supreme Court, which could not only make him ineligible but also land him in jail.
The hope that, in any case, Bolsonaro, even when he returns, will no longer have the strength that he believes to keep his army of followers standing is the strong international support that the great powers have offered Lula and his democratic government.
And a first positive piece of information is that precisely after the failed coup last Sunday, Bolsonaro's presence on social networks, until then always very strong, has plummeted, while his most fanatical followers who don't want to lose feel frustrated. and even betrayed.
The truth is that Bolsonaro finds himself between a rock and a hard place today, since it is bad for him to either stay in his golden exile in the United States, where he begins to become not a pleasant tourist, or to return to face a string of serious accusations and having to deal with a president and a government willing to defend democratic values at the cost, if necessary, of prosecuting and imprisoning him.
It has been relevant, for example, that governors who were elected supported by Bolsonaro, such as that of Sao Paolo, in the face of the difficult test to which the failed fascist coup subjected them, have wanted to publicly support Lula and his government.
The long list of invitations from heads of state to visit their countries and the fact that up to now they have won the battle with the military leadership, reveals more than anything else that Bolsonaro, if he decided to return, would not have an easy life.
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