US expert makes gloomy forecast for Russia's future: "Will probably have to witness the drama"
Created: 01/10/2023 05:04
By: Franziska Schwarz
Is Russia on the brink of collapse in the Ukraine war?
In this case, political scientist Alexander Motyl warns the West not to repeat old mistakes.
Newark - As inappropriately clarified as it may sound: At some point the Ukraine war will also end and the world will then have to rearrange its power relations, depending on who was the loser.
The aggressor, Russia, spans eleven time zones.
If the country under the ruler Vladimir Putin is the loser, this will not be without repercussions simply because of its sheer size.
A political scientist is now warning the West: prepare yourselves mentally for this scenario.
Alexander Motyl, who teaches political science at Rutgers University-Newark in New Jersey, believes that a possible Russian defeat in the violent conflict is currently not being discussed enough.
In a guest post for
Foreign Policy
on Saturday (January 7), he writes: "It may then only take one trigger to bring about the
(note: Russian)
collapse."
Picture taken on January 7: Putin at an Orthodox Christmas party in Moscow © Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin Pool/Imago
The consequences would be devastating, he predicts.
As a comparison, he draws on the First World War and Napoleon's campaigns.
"The economic crises that followed and the social upheavals did the rest for the states involved."
Consequences of a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war?
Pessimists vs. Optimists
Motyl goes on to write: "Even if hardly anyone currently wants Russia to collapse, it is still conceivable that the country's political, economic and social weaknesses will induce its components to seek salvation in independence." But what would be in his opinion the concrete consequences?
Motyl assigns the contradictory assessments to the camp of "pessimists" and "optimists".
Pessimists: Russia starts new wars with all breakaway states
Optimists: After a defeat, the Russian military is too powerless for that.
Pessimists: Non-Russian minor states involved are attacking each other.
Optimists: These small states have enough resources to avoid neighborhood conflicts.
Pessimists: A nuclear escalation threatens after a defeat.
Optimists: The Russian genocide in Ukraine is already escalating.
According to Motyl, both situations agree on one thing: a Russian defeat would probably mean a civil war in the country.
"The bottom line is that we will probably have to witness the drama of Russia falling apart."
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Scenario: Russia loses the Ukraine war - expert sees insight in Putin
Motyl qualifies that “sparks are unpredictable” and that Russia could “survive the crisis triggered by the Ukraine conflict in its “current form”, whether under the current head of the Kremlin himself or one of Putin’s rumored successors.
Nevertheless, the country as a state would be "massively weakened" - the "structural tensions" would remain.
Motyl sees evidence in the Russian President's New Year's speech that even Putin himself is aware of this.
In it, Putin also spoke of the danger posed by the Russian military invasion to his country's independence.
This is "something he hasn't addressed before," says Motyl.
How should the West now prepare for the worst-case scenario?
Motyl recommends not putting the needs of Russia ahead of those of its neighbors in the event of defeat.
In a post-war scenario, they would in any case play a key role in stabilizing Russia as a “barrier belt”.
The "best guarantee" to cushion the effects of a Russian collapse is also to continue to support Ukraine.
All "worst-case" scenarios have to be treated with "extreme caution", the political scientist dismisses.
Because even if the collapse of states has mostly been chaotic so far, the “outcome was not always bad for neighboring states and the rest of the world”.
(frs)