Remember, it was January 11, 2020, China declared that a first patient had died from the mysterious atypical pneumonia reported in Wuhan a few weeks earlier.
From that day and very quickly, the disease will be detected all over the world, the number of deaths will explode while most countries will decree confinements.
The most rigid in this matter will be China, which will apply a strict “zero Covid strategy”, lifted only a month ago with the consequences that we know.
So now, three years later, what scenarios can we envisage for the year 2023 as Chinese hospitals are overwhelmed by the influx of patients?
Difficult to make predictions when mystery continues to reign over the origin of the virus which has brought the world to a halt.
Good reading,
Camille Lestienne, journalist at
Le Figaro
What future for the Covid in 2023?
Will Covid-19 become an endemic disease?
LOIC VENANCE / AFP
As the peak of the last epidemic wave of Covid ebbs like those of influenza and bronchiolitis, what are the scenarios envisaged for 2023?
They are four in number.
If the experts rule out any return to the restrictions, "
no one believes in the scenario of the eradication of the virus,
assures infectious disease specialist Anne-Claude Crémieux.
What is possible, however, is that the disease becomes endemic.
It can also persist in the form of several epidemic waves with a maintenance of mortality at a high plateau.
Unless the appearance of a new variant escaping acquired immunity upsets all forecasts.
However, this last worst-case scenario remains highly improbable.
The latest, the Omicron XBB.1.5 sub-variant which has already spread rapidly in the United States, has been spotted in South Africa without causing particular concern.
The figures in France
9878
daily positive cases on average (- 48.24% in 7 days
)
94
daily deaths on average in hospital (- 11.32% in 7 days)
20,776
people hospitalized (- 10.32% in 7 days)
1135
patients in critical care (- 11.09% in 7 days)
Source Public Health France as of January 8 and 11, 2023
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Submerged China
An elderly woman receives oxygen at a hospital in China's Zhejiang province.
STAFF / REUTERS
In China, the virus continues its rapid spread leading to unprecedented scenes of disorder in hospitals.
In some provinces, nearly 90% of the population would be contaminated.
And the more remote and unspoiled regions could be quickly affected thanks to the trips made for the Chinese New Year which begins on January 21.
However, it is difficult to know the exact extent of the epidemic.
While the authorities have only recognized around fifteen deaths since the end of the zero Covid strategy in early December, the deaths of several celebrities are worrying the population, who doubt the sincerity of the government.
Abroad, mistrust also reigns.
As China lifted the quarantine for international travelers on Sunday,
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Persistent mystery about the origin of the Covid
In Wuhan, the epicenter of Covid three years ago, New Year's Eve was duly celebrated on December 31.
TINGSHU WANG / REUTERS
Finally, three years after the announcement of the first death in China, the mystery remains about the origin of Sars-CoV-2.
Natural animal source in Wuhan market or leak from the lab implanted in the same place?
Impossible to shed light as the Chinese authorities have blocked access to their data and multiplied the obstructions to the investigation of international researchers.
Nothing in the analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 genome allows us to say that scientists would have tried to modify a coronavirus to make it more contagious.
“
The virus may very well come from the activity of collection by scientists, without having been modified within a laboratory”,
advances Marc Eloit, head of the pathogen discovery laboratory at the Institut Pasteur in Paris.
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The reflexes to keep
The virus is transmitted by droplets and aerosols.
The barrier gestures detailed by the Ministry of Health must be observed to protect themselves and others:
Wear the mask in closed and crowded places, especially for fragile people, with symptoms or contact cases.
Ventilate the rooms as often as possible, at least a few minutes every hour.
Wash your hands regularly or use hydroalcoholic gel.
Greet without shaking hands and stop hugging.
Cough or sneeze into the crease of your elbow.
Use single-use tissues.
What to do in case of symptoms?
The disease is most often manifested by cough, fever or feeling feverish, loss of smell and taste, fatigue.
If after a few days you have trouble breathing or are short of breath, you should contact 15. Symptoms are often milder with the Omicron variant, similar to those of a cold: sore throat, headache, runny nose.
In case of signs of the disease, the most important thing is to get tested.
The test, PCR or antigen, remains free for non-vaccinated people on medical prescription or after having been identified as a contact case by Health Insurance.
In the event of a positive result on a self-test, a confirmation PCR test is recommended.
While waiting for the result, you must isolate yourself and wear a mask.
In the event that the test is positive,
isolation must last 7 days
from the first symptoms for vaccinated persons,
10 days
for unvaccinated people.
It can be broken on D+5 or D+7 respectively, if you have a negative test and you have had no symptoms for 48 hours.
Good to know, since March 21, 2022, contact cases no longer need to isolate themselves, vaccinated or not, but wearing a mask is recommended and teleworking is preferred as far as possible.
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You have just learned that you are positive for Covid-19, what to do?
Goodbye.
