In October last year, Sergey Surovikin, who had just been promoted to the commander-in-chief of Russia's "special military operations" against Ukraine, was replaced after just three months in office. ) takes over.
Some analysts pointed out that many people in Russia who are familiar with the situation in Moscow were surprised by Vladimir Putin's decision, which shows that this personnel change may be a sudden decision due to the current situation.
The decision to replace Surovkin with Gerasimov came as a shock for two reasons.
The first is political and the second is military.
Fed up with "Wagner"?
The reason why Sulovkin was replaced as the commander-in-chief of the war against Ukraine in early October is that all circles believe that this is Putin's intention to incorporate two major forces other than the Ministry of Defense to act against Ukraine.
At that time, the propaganda statement that "Kharkov will always belong to Russia" was still in my ears, and Russia experienced the loss of thousands of square kilometers of land in Kharkiv, and its northern front against the Ukrainian-controlled area in Donetsk. It was completely disintegrated, and even Lugansk (Lagansk), which was already in the bag, became the target of the Ukrainian counterattack.
Whether it is the local leaders of the Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine, the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov who led the army to fight in Ukraine, or the leader of the "Wagner" mercenary group (Wagner Group) Puri who has tens of thousands of elite soldiers, Yevgeny Prigozhin, both openly fired at Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Gerasimov, among others.
The rhetoric was strong, and sometimes it even included asking them to "take their own lives and apologize".
Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov have been the object of criticism from Russia's internal military observers for the past few months.
(Reuters)
Surovkin is a figure supported by both Kadyrov and Prigozin.
Putin appointed Surovkin as the commander-in-chief against Ukraine, so it was considered a decision to unite all security forces in the country.
Afterwards, the Wagner Army, which concentrated on attacking Bakhmut, the only main Russian attack point in Donetsk, also received the support and cooperation of Sulovkin.
Surovkin is also seen as the man who finally persuaded Putin to withdraw from the undefendable city of Kherson.
In the past few months, news that Shoigu and Gerasimov may be dismissed has been heard from time to time.
Some commentators believe that the reason why they can keep their positions is all due to Putin's consideration of maintaining stability during wartime.
However, just three months after allowing Prigozin to play a more prominent role on the Ukrainian battlefield, Putin changed his decision again and re-enlisted figures supported by the Ministry of Defense to take charge of the Ukrainian war.
Does this mean that Putin has had enough of extra-establishment military forces like the Chechen armed forces and the Wagner Legion?
If so, why did Putin make two 180-degree turns in just three months?
On the other hand, from a military point of view, the performance of Surovkin and Prigozin and others is not outstanding.
Prigozin, founder of the Wagner Legion wanted by the FBI.
(Reuters)
New military deployment?
Surovkin, who used airstrike tactics in Syria to finally give the Bashar al-Assad regime a decisive advantage, launched missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure across Ukraine as soon as he took office, causing large areas of Ukraine to be shut down intermittently. Survive the cold winter without water, electricity and heating.
This tactical shift once made European and American countries worry that the Ukrainian anti-Russian sentiment would be difficult to support, but today, three months later, the lack of material conditions has still not dampened the will of the Ukrainians. At the same time, the frequency of Russian attacks seems to be increasing. The gradual decline may indicate that the outside world's assessment of its lack of precision weapons for months is not far from the reality.
As for Bachmut, which Russia has been trying to capture since last summer, both the Russian side and the Ukrainian side suffered heavy casualties under Prigozin's onslaught, but the unnecessary deaths on both sides did not bring clear results.
On January 10, Prigozin announced that he had captured Soledar, a small town less than 10 kilometers away from Bakhmut, but officials from Russia and Ukraine have not confirmed this news since then.
Indeed, after Surovkin, Prigozin and others took charge of the war, Russia has not lost the land it has won on a large scale, but this stalemate is far from the lower limit of Putin's war goal of "invading Russia in four places" It was far away, and it was difficult for people to know whether it was caused by the muddy and wild weather in autumn and winter, or the result of the effective leadership of Su, Pu and others.
In terms of military governance, Ukraine’s missile attack on a makeshift military camp in Makiivka, Donetsk region on New Year’s Day killed at least 89 people. Due to the successful positioning - this also shows that Surovkin's leadership has not yet been able to change the problems of military governance that existed at the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The rubble of the Makeyevka makeshift barracks (formerly a vocational training school) hit by Ukrainian missiles.
(Reuters)
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, putting Chief of General Staff Gerasimov in charge of the Ukrainian war is to upgrade the leadership and improve the quality and effectiveness of Russian military management.
The replacement of Sulovkin may really have something to do with the latter's battlefield performance.
In recent months, there have been rumors that Russia may launch another large-scale offensive in the new year. It may be launched from Luhansk, or it may go south from Belarus to take Kyiv.
It is also possible that Gerasimov's appointment was to take charge of this new wave of offense.
If this is the case, it is worth questioning that Gerasimov had participated in the Russo-Ukrainian war when it started. As the chief of the general staff of the armed forces, he is even more responsible for the unsatisfactory war at this moment.
If he had any insight on how to break the stalemate on the Ukrainian battlefield (or even reverse the relative disadvantage against Russia), it would have already been reflected on the battlefield.
Compared with Surovkin, who led the best-performing southern troops in Ukraine before taking office, Gerasimov's appointment seems to be more difficult to bring about positive changes in the current situation of the war.
As the saying goes, "changing generals before the battle is a taboo for military strategists." Regardless of whether Gerasimov's decision to take charge of the Ukrainian war is due to political factors, military reasons, or both, we can also infer from this that we dare to commit this taboo again Putin is indeed very worried about the performance of the Russian army in Ukraine.
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