Favors for Wagner mercenaries?
Putin exchanges commander – “Now the general descends from the sky”
Created: 01/13/2023 17:51
By: Lucas Maier
For the fourth time, Putin has changed leadership in the Ukraine war.
Does Russia want to get closer to the Wagner Group or put them in their place?
Moscow – In a few days, Russia wanted to overrun Ukraine and take Kyiv.
The Ukraine war has now lasted almost a year.
So far, the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has had to listen to criticism primarily from the financier of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The mistakes in the Ukraine war have long had an impact on the Kremlin chief.
Again and again Putin draws personnel consequences.
His latest coup: he put Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov in command of the war against Ukraine.
Experts see the 70-year-old's move as a step towards the mercenary force.
Can Putin be "Wagnerized"?
Power struggle in the Ukraine war: does Putin want to please the Wagner group or put them in their place?
It is now the fourth change of power at the head of the Russian campaign towards Kyiv.
With Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov, Putin seems to have put his strongest horse in this position.
Experts see this as a structural approximation to the Wagner Group.
Their boss, together with Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechens, had repeatedly called for "tactical and personnel changes".
Ukraine war: Putin changes leadership of campaign, but why?
(Archive image) © Mikhail Kuravlev/dpa
Dara Massicot, a senior researcher at
Rand Corporation
, said the change at the top of the army could be a measure to show the two Putin critics their place.
The military expert Marina Miron from King's College London is also certain that personnel decisions for Putin are part of "a political game", as she told the US
magazine
Newsweek
.
However, not all experts share this assessment.
Wagner Group in the Ukraine War: Is Putin Wagnarizing the State Army?
"The appointment of Gerasimov as commander of the front-line forces was due to Wagner's success," says nationalist political scientist Sergey Markov.
This is reported by the
Bayrischer Rundfunk.
According to Markov, success is based on quick management decisions.
According to Markov, the appointment of Gerasimov will speed up the decision-making process “dramatically”.
The Russian military blogger Semjon Pegow (“Wargonzo”) takes a similar view.
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"Now the general staff is directly and uncompromisingly responsible for absolutely everything," Pegow formulates his assessment of the change in leadership.
Before Gerasimov, the commander Sergey Surovikin held the post at the head of the Ukraine campaign.
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From a military point of view, the commander, who has only been deployed since October, can look back on some successes in the Ukraine war, as the
German Press Agency
writes.
In the hierarchy of power, Surovikin has slipped into one of Gerasimov's three deputy posts.
He is one of the favorites of Kadyrov and Prigozhin, which in turn speaks for Dara Massicot's thesis.
War in Ukraine: Even supporters of the war seem pessimistic
"Now the general has to descend from heaven to earth, but he hasn't set foot on earth for a long time," Kremlin observer Roman Switan scoffed at the Russian exile broadcaster
Currenttime
.
He is alluding to the fact that Gerasimov had only once shown himself close to the front.
It remains to be seen whether the change of power will lead to changes in the Ukraine war.
However, optimism is not even spreading among Russian war advocates, as the British political
newspaper newstatesman
writes.
(
Lucas Maier
)
