General Winter: Russia's greatest strength could become its ultimate weakness
Created: 01/13/2023 15:26
By: Christian Stör
Ukrainian soldiers go to a position near Bakhmut.
© dpa
The winter months also influence the course of the Ukraine war.
The situation could become even more difficult for Russia.
Moscow - In times of war, the weather often plays a crucial role.
In past centuries, winter in particular was considered one of the great strengths of Russia's armed forces.
Just three cases can be mentioned as examples: the failure of Hitler's Nazi Germany in World War II, Napoleon's withdrawal of the Grande Armée from Moscow in 1812 and the unsuccessful campaign of the Swedish King Charles XII.
in the Great Northern War in the winter of 1708/1709.
But the signs seem to be reversed in the Ukraine war.
Military historian Anthony Beevor went in late December in an article for US magazine
Foreign Affairs
the question of whether a fate similar to that of Napoleon or Hitler awaits Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Beevor's verdict: The winter will probably hit Russia harder than Ukraine.
The historian referred primarily to the numerous reports of inadequate equipment and training of Russian soldiers.
Above all, the estimated 300,000 reservists specially recruited for the Ukraine war would have to suffer.
Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness
View photo gallery
Russia not properly prepared for winter in the Ukraine war
Other experts see it the same way.
William Courtley, for example, also referred to historical models in an interview with the US magazine
Newsweek
: "The curious thing about the invasions of Napoleon and Hitler is that they both thought they would achieve victory before winter set in, which is why they didn't properly deploy their troops prepared for the winter climate,” said the former US ambassador to Georgia and Kazakhstan.
"Under the current circumstances, it looks like Russia is making the same mistake."
Former elite Green Beret fighter Dale Buckner echoed the same sentiment: "We believe that in extremely cold weather, the Ukrainians have the advantage and not the Russians," said the head of the international security firm Global Guardian.
The company claims to have intelligence information from Ukraine.
“We believe Ukrainians have an advantage in extremely cold weather”
Dale Buckner, former Green Beret
Meanwhile, risk management firm Crisis 24 predicted that after integrating its mobilized troops in a late winter or early spring offensive, the Russian high command could attempt to break through Ukrainian lines, most likely in the Donetsk or Luhansk regions.
"However, such an operation will almost certainly not achieve its main goals," it said at the same time.
Reasons given include low troop morale and inefficient supply and logistics.
also read
Military expert Masala becomes clear in “Lanz” – on the subject of migration: “You spit in their face”
TO READ
Russia's parade tanks become a mass grave for its own troops
TO READ
Putin spokesman sees NATO "involved" in Ukraine war - Armenia gives Russia a low blow
TO READ
"Hot night in Soledar": Russia announces great victory of the Wagner troops
TO READ
Hardly any supplies of weapons: Putin rumbles against the Deputy Prime Minister – "Don't play stupid!"
TO READ
Fancy a voyage of discovery?
My space
Ukraine needs more help
Allan Orr sees things differently.
The specialist in military and strategic studies believes that the West overestimates the Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian troops are still vastly outnumbered by Russian forces, Orr told
Newsweek
.
"If the West doesn't bite the bullet and provide Ukraine with much more funding than it has so far, every winter will be risky for Kyiv."
What the future will bring cannot be predicted at the moment: "General Winter will do again in the war what happened to Napoleon," said Orr.
"But nobody can say whether Putin or Zelenskyj will be the Bonaparte of the 21st century." (cs)
