Always fuller and older: This is what Bavaria will look like in around 20 years
Created: 01/14/2023 08:33
By: Cornelia Schramm
Bavaria is growing and growing.
Statisticians from Franconia have evaluated what the Free State will look like in around 20 years.
An overview of the results.
Fürth – It's not a look into a crystal ball.
The State Office for Statistics in Fürth evaluates data and probabilities every year - and thus forecasts how Bavaria will look in 20 years.
The statisticians from Franconia presented the current population projection yesterday.
Just a few days ago, the office presented statistics showing that half of all Bavarians are overweight.
Statistics from Fürth: Bavaria will continue to grow
By 2041, around 13.89 million people will be living in Bavaria.
In the next few years, the population will increase by 714,000 people.
Currently, the influx of Ukrainian refugees is driving the number up the most.
With an increase of 180,000 people by the end of 2022, the projection is therefore the highest in the first year.
The migration movements caused by the war could still affect the number of inhabitants in the Free State up until 2026.
Statisticians predict growth in the number of inhabitants and significantly older people in the Free State.
© Bavarian State Office for Statistics
Statistics evaluated: There are regional differences
According to the statisticians, all 96 rural districts and urban districts in Bavaria will have additional residents by 2041 as a result of migration.
Nevertheless, there are differences: Larger cities and neighboring districts can expect growth.
In some rural areas, however, there are stagnating or declining population figures.
There is likely to be further growth in the Munich metropolitan region.
This is not the case in districts like Kronach and Hof.
Bayern are getting older
By 2041, Bavaria's population will not only grow, but also get older.
The average age will increase by 1.3 percent over the next twenty years to 45.4 years (today: 44.1 years).
The number of people over 65 is likely to increase by 753,000 to 3.51 million people – by around 27 percent.
In return, the age group between 20 and 64 is to be reduced by 205,000 to 7.77 million people.
The number of under 20-year-olds increased only slightly by 166,000 people.
This means that in 2041 there would be 45 retirees for every 100 people of working age.
For comparison: in 2021 the ratio was still 35 to 100.
Upper Bavaria is growing the second strongest
Upper Bavaria is the administrative district in which the population is expected to increase the second fastest by 7.7 percent by 2041 (Swabia: 8.6 percent).
Growth in Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm (+12.4 percent), Dachau (+11.5 percent) and Ebersberg (+12.2 percent) is above average.
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With 3.6 percent growth, Garmisch-Partenkirchen will show the smallest increase in population.
As early as 2021, Upper Bavaria was the largest district in terms of population with over 4.73 million inhabitants.
According to forecasts, the number will increase by 364,000 to 5.09 million inhabitants by 2041.
1.60 million people (+7.3 percent) will then live in the state capital.
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Munich is below average age
While the average age in Upper Bavaria will increase by around one year to 44.3 years by 2041, the city of Munich will be significantly lower in 2021, despite a surplus of births – at the lowest average age in Bavaria of 42.1 years.
The highest average age in Upper Bavaria will be in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in 2041 at 47.2 years (+0.5 years).
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