Russia's plans for Belarus are causing concern: the NATO secret paper probably gives the all-clear

Created: 01/14/2023 07:56

By: Bona Hyun

Is a Russian offensive from Belarus to be feared?

NATO refutes the concern.

© Konstantin Zavrazhin/dpa

Foreign Minister Lavrov is expected in Minsk at the end of January.

Is a Russian offensive from Belarus to be feared?

NATO refutes the concern.

MOSCOW - Russia's growing military presence in Belarus has fueled speculation of a Russian attack from Belarus.

An air force maneuver has been announced - and also a visit by Vladimir Putin's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Minsk.

But according to insiders, NATO has given the all-clear regarding a possible offensive on Ukraine from Belarus.

Concerns about new Russia plans: Foreign Minister Lavrov expected in Minsk on January 19

Lavrov will attend a meeting with the Belarusian Foreign Ministry on Thursday (January 19) in Minsk, according to his spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

The Ukrainian

also reported on this, citing the Belarusian news agency Belta.

The focus of the negotiations will be a common foreign policy in the "Confederation of States of Russian-Belarusian Union", it said.

The "foreign policy strategies" could also affect NATO and the EU.

Cooperation on arms control and action against the West were also topics to be dealt with, it was said - and cooperation through the OSCE.

Zakharova expected an "agreement".

Unsurprisingly, there was no talk of an attack plan.

On Thursday (January 12), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed Belarus' cooperation with Russia.

The two states are about equal conditions for people and companies, he said.

This includes, among other things, integration in the economic sector, emphasized Lukashenko.

The state agency Belta also reported on Friday about artillery exercises of the "joint" troops.

NATO and Ukrainian general consider Russian attack from Belarus unlikely

Nevertheless, one is apparently not worried in NATO intelligence circles.

Despite the relocation of Russian troops, NATO still considers an invasion of Belarus "still unlikely," according to a confidential briefing by the NATO military committee on Monday.

reported .

The British secret service also took a similar position in the daily short report from the London Ministry of Defense on Wednesday.

The transfer of troops to Belarus is training and not preparation for an offensive on Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian state agency Ukrinform, the Ukrainian Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, commander of the Ukrainian army, does not see any danger for Kyiv.

"Currently, the situation on the Belarusian border does not pose a direct threat to us," the agency quoted the lieutenant general as saying.

However, Ukrainian secret services kept an eye on the situation.

Belarus and Russia are planning joint air force maneuvers – nervousness about the offensive is growing

According to official information, Belarus is planning a two-week air force maneuver with the Russian armed forces starting in mid-January.

9,000 soldiers are said to be stationed in Belraus.

Both countries had already formed a joint task force in the autumn.

At the time, it was said that the troops were used, among other things, to protect the external borders of the Russian-Belarusian Union.

Lukashenko had also emphasized that.

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So can it be ruled out that Belraus will not allow himself to be dragged into the Ukraine war by Russia?

Already at the beginning of the war, the troops of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin had used Belarus as a deployment area for the invasion of Ukraine.

Lukashenko has so far avoided direct involvement of Belarusian soldiers in the Ukraine war.

However, he is heavily dependent on Moscow politically, economically and militarily.

At the most recent meeting with Putin at the end of December, Lukashenko and Putin officially discussed their economic cooperation.

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