Depending on how it is evaluated,
Roberto Lavagna
's performance in the
2019 presidential election
was
acceptable or very poor
.
Why acceptable?
Because
he got half of the extra crack votes
.
Why very bad?
Because
he didn't even reach double digits
.
What happened?
In a context of extreme polarization, between the Fernández and Macri-Pichetto they took 88%.
What was left to fight outside was little or nothing.
Consolation for a leader with full self-esteem like Lavagna.
The polls anticipate a
very different scenario
for this year .
No poll gives Juntos por el Cambio and the Frente de Todos added more than 70 points.
In some cases with a high level of undecided, there are not even 50. Surely
last week the Cordovan governor Juan Schiaretti and former Salteño Juan Manuel Urtubey
jumped into that apparently empty pool.
They announced that they will be candidates for president in the PASO in an assembly "outside the crack."
Schiaretti
, without re-election in his province, hits (or tries to hit) the jump that he
had been threatening for a while
.
He hoped to do it in September of last year, after a victory in the local town of Marcos Juárez.
A detail frustrated the program: he had
bad information
from the polls and his candidate lost.
In the case of
Urtubey
,
repeat
(or try to repeat) the 2019 route. That time he finished on the slope in Lavagna's 6-point formula.
It is difficult, today, to imagine a happier ending than that for this new commitment to good-mannered Peronism.
In principle, because
the space they dream of occupying already has a consolidated tenant: Javier Milei.
A consultant,
Opinaia
, has been measuring the PJ not K for an eventual STEP: with Lavagna and Schiaretti, they appear closer to the margin of error than to double digits.
The background of 2015
If in 2015 Sergio Massa sought to be crowned by the "broad avenue in the middle", with the K and Cambiemos at the ends,
now the third way runs to the right
.
Thus, the non-K PCs might rather fall into a "dead end."
Analysts and politicians from the two main coalitions agree with the current diagnosis:
Milei measures well not only in the AMBA
but also in the rest of the country, with an interesting although limited flow.
Taken to numbers:
between 15 and 20 points
of voting intention.
Is she touching her ceiling?
His rivals think so, the libertarian economist hopes not.
Another problem for moderate Peronism is that on both sides of the rift
proposals that are supposedly from the center are also being cooked up
, with casting calls for similar leaders who will seek a similar vote.
Sergio Massa
, from the ruling party, and
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
, from Together for Change, try to differentiate themselves from what the two political leaders of their spaces represent in the imaginary: Cristina and Macri.
The minister has an uphill challenge: not only because of the 2022 inflation record, but also because his move to break away from Kirchnerism is dubious in fact and imperceptible to public opinion.
The head of government is not easy either.
Every time he steps into the middle, he risks losing support at the yellow end.
With
a latent and competitive threat
: Patricia Bullrich.
look too
Red hot internal: the survey that circulates in the Government and hits Juan Grabois for social plans
New survey and surprise: Cristina Kirchner is not the official with the worst image among voters of Together for Change
