When the alliances have not even been formed yet, thinking about a second ballot may sound out of time.
But since the next presidential election will most likely be decided by heads-up, because the polarization has diminished, the consultants are measuring this type of scenario.
and a
new poll
to which Clarín
agreed ,
raised
nine possibilities for the second round
.
With results of all kinds,
an official candidate who did very badly stands out: he did not reach 20 points
.
It is the Minister of the Interior,
Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro
, who has been trying to establish himself, especially given the possibility that his political chief, Vice Cristina Kirchner, will not show up.
The studio is by
Zuban Córdoba
.
It is the union of two consultancies:
Zuban
, specialized more in consumer issues;
and
Córdoba
, focused on politics.
Its director, Gustavo Córdoba, is a well-known analyst with contacts on both sides of the gap.
His works usually circulate in Casa Rosada, for example;
and in his homonymous province, he linked up with the Peronism of Juan Schiaretti and the radicals of Mario Negri.
Its latest survey was made based on
1,300 national interviews
, with +/- 2.72% margin of error.
It included telephone and face-to-face contacts.
The leaders evaluated in ballots were the
oficialistas De Pedro, Sergio Massa and Axel Kicillof
, and the
opponents Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Patricia Bullrich and Javier Milei
.
Opposition Preeminence: 8 to 1
In all cases, the opposition candidates prevail, except in a one-on-one in which Massa appears above Milei.
The libertarian economist ends up defeated in the three ballots
in which he was evaluated.
In
scenarios 1 and 2
,
Milei
confronts the representatives of the PRO.
First with Larreta and then with Bullrich
.
With the head of Government, she loses
34.5% to 24.4%
, with more than 41% undecided;
and with the former minister, she falls
from 28.4% to 25.3%
, with 46.3% "does not know / does not answer."
In
scenario 9
, meanwhile, the
representative of La Libertad Avanza faces Massa
, and the Minister of Economy prevails
36.9% to 32.3%
, with 30.8% undecided.
The biggest difference, however, is made by the
Macrista candidates
when they
face De Pedro
.
The minister has a basic weakness compared to his rivals: the lower level of knowledge of him.
Regarding the votes, against
Larreta
it falls
from 41.9% to 17%
(
scenario 3
, with 41.1% undecided) and against
Bullrich
,
from 37.2% to 18.8%
(
scenario 4
, 44% "ns / nc").
The
other Kirchnerist evaluated
is Governor
Kicillof
.
Although
he also loses
against the leaders of Juntos por el Cambio,
he clearly fares better than De Pedro
.
In
scenario 5
,
Larreta
beat him
42.1% to 28%
, with 29.9% undecided.
And in
scenario 6
he faces
Bullrich
, who defeats him
37.2% to 29.8%
(33% "dk / nc").
Finally, there are the clashes between the head of government and the former Minister of Security against Massa.
Both beat the head of Economy, but with different gaps.
Larreta surpasses him 39.8% to 34.2% (
scenario 7
, with 25.9% undecided) and Bullrich, only by tenths, 36.3% to 35.4% (
scenario 8
, 28.3% "ns /nc").
Zuban Córdoba
's study
does not evaluate the two greatest exponents of the crack, Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri.
Nor to President Alberto Fernández, who maintains some hope of being able to try an encore.