According to Putin, "everything is going according to plan" - experts still see an act of desperation

Created: 01/16/2023 11:51 am

By: Franziska Schwarz

Picture taken on January 13: Vladimir Putin © Sergei Bobylev/Imago

Kremlin chief Putin confirms on Russian TV that the current situation in the Ukraine war is "encouraging" for Russia.

According to Western observers, there are some arguments against it.

Moscow – On Russian state television, Vladimir Putin is still confident of victory.

"The development is gratifying," he told the Rossiya-1 broadcaster, as the Russian news agency Tass reported: "Everything is going according to the plan of our defense ministry and the military," assured the Kremlin chief on Sunday (January 15) with a view to Ukraine -War.

Western observers have their doubts about this.

The reason for this is, among other things, Moscow's most recent personnel decision: Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov is now supreme commander of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine - his predecessor Sergei Surovikin only held the post for three months.

Observers assume that Gerasimov was instrumental in the secret planning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Putin Changes Military Command Structure: Act of Desperation?

But entrusting a chief of staff with leading an offensive?

"Nowhere in the world does the chief of staff command armies," the AFP news agency quoted a Moscow defense expert as saying, who wished to remain anonymous.

"That's a different function: he coordinates, prepares, plans."

The move was "unprecedented" and seen as a desperate attempt to turn things around after a series of defeats in the Ukraine war.

In its regular briefing for the public, the British secret service also spoke of Moscow's "clear commitment" that it has so far failed to meet its goals.

Even Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is said to have admitted at a meeting with top generals just a day before Gerasimov's appointment that the military was "disappointing in several areas," the US news magazine

out on the matter.

Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures

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Putin has 'unrealistic expectations', US military experts say

The political scientist Tatjana Stanowaja from the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow also commented on the personnel in an interview with the dpa news agency.

With her, Putin shows once again that he understands nothing about the military.

The president was torn between the Wagner mercenary group of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Gerasimov.

Gerasimov must have convinced him during a debate that the military could win the war, she guessed.

The Ukrainian military leadership said that the various troops - the military, Wagner and the units of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - were lost in a power struggle.

However, the US Institute for the Study of War did not expect that Gerasimov would be able to meet Putin's "unrealistic expectations".

Rather, the Kremlin chief's appointment confirms the leading role of the Russian military.

His powerful leadership could easily have posed a threat to Putin himself.

After Gerasimov's strengthening, however, she would hardly resist him, the think tank analyzed.