It really is necessary to make a great effort to try to understand
the strategy
of Kirchnerism for 2023, of its leader Cristina Kirchner, or of President Alberto Fernández.
Rarely has the political path of a Peronist government been marked by so many contradictions, uncertainties, missteps and a lack of leadership.
Cristina's affirmation that she will not be a "candidate for anything", beyond the fact that behind closed doors some believe her and others do not, revealed an absence of replacement and leadership in the Frente de Todos that shows that the only genuine political resource with What Kirchnerism counts is its vice president.
But she also denotes the limitations, because the leader of Kirchnerism
is far from her peak
.
Everyone privately encourages Sergio Massa as the only one who can build a worthy candidacy.
But he must fight not only with the fall in purchasing power at the hands of inflation, a product of the inaction of three years of government, but also with Cristina Kirchner, who
is only interested
in intimidating the Judiciary and attacking the Supreme Court .
Which also ends up wearing Massa down.
Alberto Fernández launched a voracious campaign in which he even exposed himself to inaugurate a hockey field in Miramar, in a communication strategy that, once again, crashes with reality.
The Catalan advisor Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí
has made a strong comeback in this role
.
It is clear that the objective is to confront Mauricio Macri -whom he alludes to in each act- and try to make a difference in his favour, although sometimes some definitions do not sound credible.
Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí, Catalan consultant
It happened in two successive acts, on Wednesday in Exaltación de la Cruz and on Friday in the City.
"From 2019 to date we are the second fastest growing country in the world
," she said the first time.
On the second opportunity, she expanded on it:
“
After China, we are the economy that grew the most in the world
.
I do not lie, I do, because the Peronists know that better than saying is doing and better than promising is doing, Macri ".
Nor does it seem easy, at least on the surface, to make eloquent differences with Macri's management.
In mid-2019, one of the many candidates for national deputy in Buenos Aires territory for Cambiemos, tried to convince a taxi driver that if Macri continued in the Presidency, he could deepen the changes, but if Cristina Kirchner returned to power, someone who had been denounced for corruption.
.- Look, I am 55 years old and I want to live now. I don't care what will happen in a few years. And with Cristina it was better.
Macri accumulated inflation of 300% in his four years
;
Taking as a reference the 60% inflation estimated by the Government in the Budget, which no economist supports,
Alberto Fernández would end his four years in office with at least 550% inflation
.
Almost double.
That, in addition to having tripled the social plans from 500,000 to a million and a half.
Or to increase the number of black workers.
Paradoxically, any citizen who makes a simple, reasonable and linear reflection could say that he is worse off than with Macri.
Surely, he will not notice the arguments put forward by the ruling party -many times excessively-, when it blames inheritance, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine for all the economic ills even though the values of commodities have risen - soybeans - at historical prices and therefore has received more dollars for withholdings.
In terms of political communication
, the video
of the camper and director of PAMI, Luana Volnovich, defending the purchase of $14 million in World Cup cotillion and trying to capitalize from the triumph in Qatar 2022 to the popular occurrence of the chants Grandma, is not understood either.
La la la la la la!!!!
And much less the response of the presidential spokesperson Gabriela Cerruti, after knowing the 2022 inflation of 94.8%, arguing that the objective was met because
the three figures were not reached
, that is, 100%.
Or when she said that one day "the Argentine people will recognize the true epic of this government."
Who will you talk to?
What do you want society to believe?
Press conference by the spokesperson for the Presidency, Gabriela Cerruti
“The first objective that we had in these months marked by Sergio Massa and the president of the Nation was to stop inflationary inertia. Start having reference prices again. We are on our way to that.
It is not achieved, there is nothing to celebrate
.
You have to roll up your sleeves every day and push”
, was the most logical response that, on the contrary, was offered by the Minister of Public Works, Gabriel Katopodis.
Katopodis seems to be
one of the few ministers who fight alone behind the idea of unity
of the Front of All.
He says that the candidate will be the one that must emerge from consensus, but that this is not the time to define it;
that Sergio Massa is "one of the great leaders that Peronism has";
that the best way to start the year is to focus on management and that is why he supports Alberto Fernández and says that Axel Kicillof must be “propped up”.
Most of the other members of the cabinet carry water for their own mill.
The opposition also neglects serious internal problems, while its main swords launch into the national campaign with tours and high-sounding statements.
Together for Change is experiencing
a breakdown in several provinces
, particularly in those that do not have PASO to order disputes.
In
Neuquén
, there is a PRO sector close to Mauricio Macri that supports the gubernatorial candidacy of Rolando Figueroa, a former leader of the ruling Neuquén Popular Movement (MPN), who will compete for his Comunidad party.
But there Together for Change, with the main support of the UCR and the Civic Coalition, they bet on the candidacy of Pablo Servi, a leader of Martín Lousteau's Radical Evolution.
In
Río Negro
the radicals broke JxC, closed an agreement with the Kirchnerist edge Alberto Weretilneck, and will go for the Juntos Somos Río Negro party.
Meanwhile, what remains of the opposition coalition would go with the PRO leader Juan Carlos Tortoriello.
In
Salta
there is a sector of the PRO headed by Alberto Castillo that would accompany Governor Gustavo Saenz and radicalism would play with the nomination of Miguel Nanni.
Meanwhile in
Chubut
, where the candidate for governor is Ignacio Torres from PRO, the mayor of Rawson and president of the provincial UCR, Damián Biss, wants to run for governor.
In reality, he has an unwritten alliance with the Peronist president Mariano Arcioni, and the objective is to divide Juntos por el Cambio in that province.
As if that were not enough, two potential problems arise in
Tucumán and Córdoba
, in the latter, due to the unresolved dispute between the radical Rodrigo di Loredo and Luis Juez for the gubernatorial candidacy.
This breakdown of the opposition coalition that threatens anti-Kirchner unity throughout the country is the product of the
absence of a national political table and a leadership that orders
the different confrontations.
Meanwhile, the presidential candidates seem to be more concerned with personal positions than with the consolidation of space.
look too
The circus that allows Cristina to be saved
look too
Massa candidate and a shock force of Truckers in the super
