Weather phenomenon approaching: Expert fears "very strong El Niño phase with record temperatures worldwide"
Created: 01/16/2023 04:59
By: Johannes Nuss
New Year's Eve was the warmest since weather records began.
But now it could be really hot.
Weather phenomenon El Niño announces a hot summer 2023.
Geneva – Hot, hotter, 2023: Weather experts around the world are warning that 2023 will see unprecedented heat.
Temperatures of up to 50 degrees are warned in regions such as Southeast Asia, for example.
The reason is the weather phenomenon El Niño.
"Exceptionally warm deep waters in the tropical western Pacific portend the next El Niño event in 2023," said Kevin Trenberth, a climate researcher at the University of Auckland in Australia.
El Niño is approaching: According to experts, the weather phenomenon could result in a hot summer in 2023
"All models show a large El Niño phase for late spring and summer 2023. It will probably be a very strong El Niño phase with record temperatures worldwide," confirms the German climatologist Dr.
Karsten Brandt from
Donnerwetter.de
opposite the
picture
.
The 100-year calendar also predicts extreme heat in 2023.
The El Niño weather phenomenon could return in 2023.
Experts are now assuming this and are warning of extreme temperatures in Asia and drought in Europe.
© Sven Hoppe/dpa/Archive
Brandt urgently warns of extreme drought and heat - especially in South Africa.
For Brazil, Venezuela and the rest of South America, the heat records could mean increased fires in the rainforests.
And in Southeast Asia, Brandt warns of extreme temperatures between 45 and 50 degrees.
But also the northeast coast of the USA: "Too warm," says Brandt.
What are La Niña and El Niño?
The correct name is "El Niño Southern Oscillation" or "Enso" for short.
It describes a coupled circulation system of ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.
During the El Niño
warm phase
, the current brings sea heat to higher latitudes, some of which is released into the atmosphere through evaporation.
La Niña
is thought to be a cold phase, when currents carry solar heating to deep waters of the western Pacific, where it is stored.
Because fishermen in Peru noticed the warming at the end of the year, they called the phenomenon El Niño (the Christ Child).
Between the two extremes one speaks of a neutral phase.
(dpa)
Diplom meteorologist Dominik Jung from wetter.net blows the same horn.
“We currently have La Nina and still got the warmest year since 1881.
So it's not looking too good for this year.
Maybe 2023 will top 2022 directly," the
picture
quoted the weather expert as saying.
El Niño ensures hot summer 2023: 2022 was one of the warmest years since measurements began in 1850.
Because 2022 was already one of the warmest years since measurements began in 1850. This is also worrying because it coincided with the cooling effect of the La Niña weather phenomenon.
Now there are increasing signs that the three-year La Niña phase, which is unusually long, is coming to an end.
The counterpart El Niño could soon follow, which can also drive up the temperatures.
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After 20 degrees in December: weather experts expect "record winter"
In November, the World Weather Organization (WMO) in Geneva estimated the probability at 25 percent that an El Niño phase would begin in the summer.
The probability that the previous record of the hottest year by 2026 will be exceeded is 93 percent.
The record year was 2016, with a global average temperature of 1.3 degrees above the 1850-1900 level.
The picture is from the previous record summer of 2016 in South Africa.
At that time there had been a devastating series of fires in the Cape.
This could be repeated in 2023 – worldwide.
© Nic Bothma/dpa/Archive
Strong and moderate El Niño events contribute to warming and increase the average global surface temperature, according to the WMO.
"Although the strongest effects of El Niño are felt in the equatorial Pacific, they can affect weather around the world by affecting high and low pressure systems, winds and precipitation," explain Columbia University climate researchers.
"As warmer ocean water releases excess energy (heat) into the atmosphere, global temperatures are rising."
The El Niño weather phenomenon is approaching: in 2022, the average temperature was already 1.15 degrees too warm
WMO chief Petteri Taalas warned in August 2022: “To have La Niña events for three consecutive years is very extraordinary.
The cooling effect has temporarily slowed the increase in global temperatures, but that will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend.”
According to a preliminary forecast, 2022 was one of the warmest years since the beginning of industrialization, despite La Niña.
The WMO estimated the global average temperature in November to be about 1.15 degrees above the average for the years 1850 to 1900. In addition, the years 2015 to 2022 were the eight warmest years.
(with dpa material)