A large part of the victory in the first round of the Fernández in 2019 was explained by the overwhelming difference that they took from the Macri-Pichetto duo in the
province of Buenos Aires
.
For this reason, a
new survey that
Clarín
accessed
this Tuesday and that measured for the
presidential PASO
in Buenos Aires territory can trigger alerts in the Casa Rosada / Instituto Patria:
without Cristina Kirchner in the offer
, the Frente de Todos appears a few points below Together for Change.
It is one of the main surprises of the latest survey by
CB Consultora Public Opinion
.
It is a firm originating in Córdoba, which began to become better known since the beginning of 2020, when it started with an interesting ranking of governors.
Later, he was adding clients in politics and does work, among others, for the Government of the City and that of Córdoba.
Between January 10 and 16, the pollster led by analyst Cristian Buttié surveyed
1,533 cases in the province of Buenos Aires
.
And she presented the results with +/- 2.5% margin of error.
In electoral terms, she evaluated four scenarios: a presidential STEP with Cristina, another presidential STEP without Cristina;
a STEP for governor and a first round for governor.
He also analyzed other variables.
With these results:
- 57.8% rate the work of the Buenos Aires government as "negative" and 56.5% have a "negative" image of Governor Axel Kicillof.
- 61.8% rate the work of the national government as "negative" and 65.4% have a "negative" image of President Alberto Fernández.
- "Inflation" is clearly ahead as the "main problem of the country" with 36.2%, followed by "corruption" (11.1%) and "insecurity" (7.8%).
The fight for the presidency in the Province
The first two electoral charts are very interesting because they allow us to analyze the
impact of Cristina's presidential candidacy
in the main territory of the country.
And the eventual absence of it.
In both cases
, STEP is measured
, that is, with several candidates for each of the two large coalitions.
In the
first
, there are three from the Frente de Todos against three from Juntos por el Cambio.
The ruling party prevails in the total
30.7% to 27.2%
.
But the important thing is that of those 30.7%, the vice contributes 18.6%, against 9.2% of Sergio Massa and 2.9% of Alberto Fernández.
In Together for Change, the highest volume is shown by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, with 15.3%, followed by Patricia Bullrich with 9.2% and Gerardo Morales with 2.7%.
In
scenario 2
,
without Cristina
, the sum is
won by the opposition
, which grows just four tenths to
27.6%
(15.8% Larreta, 9.1% Bullrich and 2.7% Morales), but it is enough for exceed the
26.2%
of the Frente de Todos (19.3% Massa and 6.9% Fernández).
In both draws,
Javier Milei repeats a good number: 15%
.
On the other hand, the case of Juan Schiaretti
, the Cordovan governor who has just launched into the national fight , is
very weak :
2.3% and 2.9%
.
He falls below "a candidate from the left" (4.2% and 5.2%).
The fight for the governorship in the Province
In the case of the bid for the governorship, there are also two scenarios, but one evaluates PASO and the other, an eventual first round.
As for the primaries, with only two candidates, the
Frente de Todos surpasses Juntos por el Cambio in total
, which appears with seven applicants.
The ruling party reaches
31.1%
, thanks to
22.9%
from
Kicillof
and
8.2%
from his chief of staff,
Martín Insaurralde
.
In
JvC
, of the
28.3
points,
Diego Santilli
contributed
15.4%
,
Diego Valenzuela 4.2%
,
Cristian Ritondo 2.9%
,
Gustavo Posse 2.6%
,
Martín Tetaz 1.6%
,
Néstor Grindetti 1, 3%
and
Joaquín de la Torre 0.3%
.
Below are
"a candidate from Milei" (7.9%)
,
José Luis Espert (6.9%)
,
Nicolás del Caño (2.9%)
, plus
"another" (3.9%)
,
"blank " (5.5%)
and
"I don't know" (13.4%)
.
In a hypothetical
first round
, with one candidate for space,
Santilli surpasses Kicillof by 1.1 points: 33.1% to 32%
, statistically a
technical tie
.
Further away are "a candidate from Milei" with 10.2% and Del Caño with 3.9%.
The rest is shared between "blank" and "undecided."
look too
A new survey measured ballots for the presidential election and a candidate minister did very badly
Miguel Pichetto hurries Mauricio Macri, the weakness of Juan Schiaretti and another Milei moment