Laurent Chalard: "Is the demographic decline of France necessarily synonymous with economic decline?"

Laurent Chalard is a geographer and works at the European Center for International Affairs.

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While INSEE announced on Tuesday January 17 a drop in births in France in 2022, the “demographic anguish” that Europe is going through, whether through falling birth rates, illegal immigration or the rise of multiculturalism, leads to a form of fatalism.

Among the population, it constitutes, with global warming, the great fear of the 21st century, as evidenced by the spread of the conspiracy theory of the “great replacement”.

At the same time, at the level of the ruling elites of the European Union, the demographic decline is seen as an inevitable factor in the decline of its geopolitical, economic and commercial weight internationally.

But is there a systematic causality between the two processes, on the one hand a demographic decline, and on the other a decline in power?

Indeed, if this demographic anxiety is based on indisputable data, there are possibilities of adaptation allowing to limit, even to counteract, this loss of power which seems registered in the pyramid of the ages.

Read alsoWhy the French demographic crisis is becoming a national emergency

Let us therefore focus first on the analysis of the facts.

The demographic decline of Europe in the world has been structural since the last century, appearing considerable in relative value.

In this context, two indicators make it possible to measure its extent: the total population and births.

Concerning the first, if the European Union of 27 represented approximately 15.9% of the population of the planet in 1900, it now only accounts for 5.7% of the total in 2020, i.e. a reduction in its share of almost two-thirds!

The use of the second indicator reinforces this observation: births in the European Union represent only 3.0% of the world total in 2020 compared to 6.5% in 1960. It follows that the extent of the upheaval is major and will be even more so in the future,

In political demography, there is a "law of numbers" which means that, in theory, fewer inhabitants within a State leads to a decline in power.

Laurent Chalard

Consequently, it is legitimate to wonder about the negative impact of what should be called “demographic shrinkage” on the geopolitical weight of the EU in the future.

Indeed, in political demography, there is a "law of numbers" which means that, in theory, fewer inhabitants within a State leads to a decline in power at an approximately equivalent level of development.

For example, in the 19th century, the differences in demographic dynamics between France and Germany were significant: when the former, historically very populated, saw its population increase slightly, due to an earlier drop in fertility than anywhere else in the world, the second was, on the contrary, in full swing.

These demographic differences had economic repercussions, German industry overtaking French industry during the second half of the century, but also in the military field, Prussia winning alone in 1870 when it had been necessary to All of Europe united to achieve the same result in 1814-15.

The birth rate was therefore seen very early as a problem in France, highlighted by the demographers Arsène Dumont, who published

in 1890, and Jacques Bertillon, author of a book

in 1897, or even by the senator of the Democratic Left, Edme Piot, who published

in 1900.

The temptation of a syllogism then arises: since history has shown that the demographic decline of a State leads to the decline of its power;

and since the first is now a proven fact for the EU;

therefore, the ebb of European power is inevitable.

And yet, there are reasons to hope apart from this law of nature, especially since current examples show us precisely that it is not flawless.

Switzerland and Israel, small States with less than 10 million inhabitants, or Saudi Arabia, certainly populated by nearly 35 million people but much less than France or Germany, show us that power does not reside always and only in number.

These three countries play a major global role (economic, commercial,

No single state has all of these characteristics of power.

Laurent Chalard

So what are the criteria of power?

Many remarkable theses and books have been written on this subject.

We will only mention a few of them here: the richness of the territory (the existence of raw materials, fertile agricultural land, the geographical proximity of the main commercial axes, in particular maritime, etc.);

the importance of the industrial and entrepreneurial fabric;

an advantageous and attractive commercial policy;

a positive ratio between active and non-active in society;

investment in one or more major economic sectors;

or the extent of military and technological capabilities.

No single state has all of these characteristics of power, even if some have more than others, such as the United States or China.

It is therefore common to speak of regional poles.

And the European Union is one, and not the least, being the first trading power in the world.

The Euro gives it a certain economic and monetary power, and puts it in a position to compete with other strong currencies (Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yuan).

Even if American standards flood international institutions, the European Union is also a normative power.

"The Brussels effect", as it is called, corresponds to the capacity of the EU to regulate world markets through its production of standards, its competition policy, its environmental policy too, as evidenced by the recent establishment from the carbon tax at the borders or even the mirror clauses in trade agreements, without forgetting the regulations in terms of data protection which are now imposed on digital giants, even American ones.

In this context, intensifying European solidarity in all areas where it is possible constitutes the only remedy for the loss of power that awaits the Europeans.

Laurent Chalard

But the power of the Europeans is limited by several factors: internal differences which persist;

increasingly strong competition from its trading partners who no longer respect the rules of free competition and openly practice protectionist policies (United States, China);

industries and technological innovations held back by lack of investment;

and an accentuated aging of the population, the major consequences of which are the increase in social expenditure (high proportion of elderly people), coupled with the drop in direct contributions (fewer working people).

So how to compensate, in a relatively short time, for this demographic decline?

Europe must rely on its strengths: strengthen its economic and commercial power, with the establishment of a principle of European preference in trade, and rely on an ultra-qualified workforce and cutting-edge technologies, particularly in the field of ecological transition, which the EU has made its battle horse for the next thirty years.

In this context, intensifying European solidarity in all areas where it is possible constitutes the only remedy for the loss of power that awaits the Europeans.

No single state, not even Germany, can claim to compete with the other great powers.

The famous adage "unity is strength" has never been so relevant.