In 2022, real estate prices have fallen again after years of boom.
However, according to a recent study, the market could soon turn around again.
Berlin – In 2022, the price explosion on the real estate market reached a turning point after many years.
After more than a decade of rising prices, houses and apartments are a little cheaper again, even in coveted cities.
The position of prospective buyers has improved somewhat – but not everywhere.
And the downward trend in prices could come to an end just as soon, a study suggests.
Residential Barometer: Some prices are still above the 2021 level
The housing barometer of the real estate portal ImmoScout24 shows that asking prices have fallen in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Despite the noticeable price correction of up to ten percent, the asking prices are for the most part still well above the 2021 level.
Accordingly, condominiums lose an average of minus 4.3 percent in the area of existing properties.
However, at EUR 2,714 per square meter, the asking price has risen by 3.5 percent compared to the previous year.
At 6.4 percent, the price per square meter for new buildings fell more sharply and ended up at the level of the fourth quarter of 2021. The development is reversed for single-family houses.
Here, the fall in prices for existing properties is 4.5 percent higher than for new buildings, where prices are down 2.7 percent compared to the previous quarter.
Nevertheless, the asking prices here were higher than in the same period of the previous year.
By 2.7 percent in existing buildings and by 7.3 percent in new buildings.
Real estate: A sustained decline in prices is not expected
“The last few months have been characterized by a wait and see phase and speculation on falling prices.
In the current situation of oversupply, prospective buyers have the momentum on their side.
The fact that prices are now falling shows that the market is working,” explains Dr.
Gesa Crockford, Managing Director of ImmoScout24.
“Compared to the price increase of the last five years, the price correction can be classified as moderate.
A lasting drop in prices is not to be expected, since the federal government's new construction targets are a long way off.
We expect a shortage of supply in the medium term, which could turn the market around again.”
Because in 2023 it is becoming apparent that residential construction will lag behind demand.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, Germany's population rose to over 84 million for the first time in the first half of 2022.
That is 843,000 more people than at the end of 2021. At the same time, housing construction has stalled.
The General Association of the German Housing Industry expects 250,000 newly built apartments for Germany in 2022, around 200,000 apartments for 2023 and then even less for “2024”.
According to a study by the Hanoverian Pestel Institute and the Schleswig-Holstein Institute Working Group for Contemporary Building in Kiel (Arge), the housing deficit at the end of 2022 was around 700,000 apartments nationwide.
Demand is increasing in four of the five largest cities
In the German metropolises, the wind already seems to be turning: According to ImmoScout24, demand in four of the five largest German cities rose again slightly in the fourth quarter.
Overall, however, demand remains below the pre-Corona level of the fourth quarter of 2019. In Berlin, the demand for real estate for sale is still significantly higher than in the other metropolises and is almost at the starting level of 2019. The only exception among the top 5 is Cologne , here the demand for real estate to buy continues to decline slightly.
(lma/dpa)
