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Sergio Massa looks for rabbits to get dollars out of the galley


The 5G tender, the renewed swap with China and the possibility of Brazilian financing for other sections of the gas pipeline are some rabbits. How is the give and take of the minister with the companies.

The concept of "taking rabbits out of the galley" by the Minister of Economy, 

Sergio Massa, 

arose in the heat of

the soybean dollar

when in August he decided to raise the price from $140 to $200 to favor the liquidation of grain exports.

Massa got the second rabbit with the soybean 2 dollar, when in November he realized that he needed more foreign currency and putting

$230 to the official dollar

he got the agro-exporters to liquidate US$3,000 million.

But among the worrying forecasts for the effects of the drought on agricultural production and the rise in free dollars for the week, the economic team

is rapidly studying an alternative to obtain dollars without devaluing

, or at least without devaluing in a general way.

The possibility of Massa taking new rabbits out of the hat (a concept coined for the occasion by the economist Marina dal Poggetto) in the midst of a rise in the "cash with liquidation" dollar ($359) and

blue ($378)

gains strength.

The minister has already announced that this year he intends to have some US$1.3 billion from the 5G tender, with the equivalent of US$5 billion from the China swap, and the Secretary of Industry and Productive Development,

 José De Mendiguren, 

also spoke that Dollars could enter from Brazilian financing for the reversal of the northern gas pipeline.

With this base and the commitment to the completion in July of the first section of

the Vaca Muerta gas pipeline

that would lower energy imports compared to the previous year, the Government is trying to sketch an exchange rate path that will allow it to reach the end of the year without major exchange rate shocks, although In recent days, the government's own policy has contributed little to the calm.

The beginning of a path to prosecute the Court when there is evidence that it will be difficult to achieve it due to not having enough votes in the Chamber of Deputies, or the image of leaders and militants of the Truckers union controlling prices in supermarket warehouses are

not the

better allies to reassure a clearly unbalanced

exchange market .

Members of the Truckers union control the warehouse of a supermarket.

That is why since Sunday there has been speculation about another "rabbit" from Massa to try to lower the

exchange gap

somewhat (difference between the wholesale dollar and the free ones) which, at its 100% level, once again indicates that something stinks in Denmark.

For the economist Rodolfo Santángelo, a characteristic of this relationship is that it is not based on the fact that the blue dollar ($378) is expensive, but on the fact that the wholesale price of $182.30

is cheap

and it is a problem for managing the situation because Massa To a large extent

, it bases its tactics on the width of the exchange rate gap


In his report with Horacio Verbitsky, the minister affirmed that Paula Español and Roberto Feletti

failed to contain prices

because "the most serious problem that the Secretary of Internal Commerce had was that it was not empowered in the administration of internal commerce and Exterior".

The affirmation arose from the validity of the

"give and take"

scheme that characterizes the moment: Massa asks the businessmen to contain the increases at around 4% per month,

in exchange for promising him dollars at the official price

so that they can pay their imports.

The 100% exchange gap, therefore, constitutes such a powerful prize that company managers find arguments to navigate within the official scheme despite the lack of certainty.

The "agreed planning"


with the dollar relatively late and with the prospect of further delay in a context in which there would be the equivalent of US$8 billion in delayed import payments,

would enter a zone of tension if the exchange market strengthens.

Corn crop affected in Santa Fe by extreme drought, a phenomenon that will have a strong impact on the economy.

Photo Engineer Diego Pérez, CREA

Meanwhile, the shares of Argentine companies on the Stock Market continue to give the good news of January.

Shares such as energy shares from YPF, rising 30% in the month, or that of

banks reaching 40%, 

reveal not only how cheap they were in the middle of last year (the rise since July exceeds 150%) , but

a part of the private sector began to look more at what it believes to come than at present.

Although with less intensity, the rise also affects global bonds in dollars, which were worth US$19 in the time of Martín Guzmán and today are around US$30.

Will the bullish raid of Argentina's financial assets continue?

Nobody knows for sure and even less because politics will unleash very diverse pre-election readings.

What has no brake is an inflation that last year was 94.8% (unusually the government celebrated) and that

this January aims to be above 5% again,

despite the fact that the drought is determining that a key factor of the cost of living index, such as meat, play in favor of stability.

A concept that circulates among business leaders defines the economic moment by saying: "There is too much time left for the government to do nothing, but there is little time to resolve the underlying issues."

How many rabbits in the galley will there be to keep pulling out?

look too

The Buenos Aires stock market, unstoppable: how can "la Mervaleta" continue after rising 29% this month

A family needed $152,515 in December to avoid being poor and homelessness rose 103.8% in one year

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-01-17

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