The ISW experts see the Russian army preparing for a new major offensive in Ukraine.
Two possible goals are mentioned.
Munich/Luhansk/Kyiv - It would be the first military success of the Russian army in the Ukraine war since spring 2022. According to information from Moscow, the small town of Soledar in the Donbass was recently taken and the Ukrainian armed forces at the front were allegedly pushed back.
Ukraine war: is Russia planning a new major offensive?
At least that is the Kremlin's version, which Kyiv vehemently denies.
Still, there are growing indications that Ukrainian defenders in Donbass are becoming increasingly defensive.
What could Russia soon use for a major offensive?
At least that's what the renowned Institute for the Study of War (ISW) expects.
From a Western perspective, the American think tank has developed into one of the leading expert assessments.
The ISW describes that Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin has commissioned a new major operation - and names Moscow's measures that indicate this.
In the video: Komapkt - The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war
Russian Army: Moscow builds up troops and sets up new military districts
1st measure by Moscow: focus on conventional warfare.
"The Kremlin is likely preparing to undertake decisive strategic action over the next six months aimed at regaining initiative and ending Ukraine's current string of operational successes," the ISW paper said.
Accordingly, the Kremlin is planning "measures to conduct the 'special military operation' like a major conventional war".
In early December 2022, Putin promised "that Russia would correct the mistakes of its previous military campaigns and create the conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine."
2nd measure taken by Moscow: increasing the number of troops and setting up new military districts.
According to ISW, Putin gave the
Formation of new divisions and the reintroduction of military districts in western Russia.
In addition, the compulsory military age is to be raised from the current 18 to 27 years to 21 to 30 years.
All of this, according to ISW, aims to "reform the Russian military so that it can conduct large-scale conventional warfare."
Means: possible major offensives.
Another indication: Shortly before New Year's Eve, Putin commissioned the Ministry of Defense to increase the number of Russian soldiers from 1.15 million to 1.5 million.
ISW points out that the Ukrainian secret service even expects an increase to two million soldiers.
There are "serious preparations for a possible second wave of mobilization".
Just this Tuesday (January 17), Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a reorganization of the Russian army.
Accordingly, two large territorial units are planned, according to
the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ)
"a Moscow and a Leningrad military district".
Shoigu also announced the formation of an army corps in the northern Russian republic of Karelia, which the
FAZ
as a reaction to the planned NATO accession of the Scandinavian countries Sweden and Finland.
War in Ukraine: concentrated Russian command power with chief of staff Valery Gerasimov
3rd measure by Moscow: command authority of Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov.
On January 11, Putin appointed chief of staff Valeri Gerasimov commander-in-chief of the troops in Ukraine.
In this way, the Kremlin is trying to "remedy deficiencies in the command structure," analyzes ISW.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also appointed three deputies who could “take over a large-scale operation in 2023” with Gerasimov.
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Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) and Chief of the General Staff Valeri Gerasimov (2nd from right) talk to representatives of the army in Moscow about the expansion of the Russian armed forces.
© IMAGO/Vadim Savitskii
4th measure of Moscow: "revival of the defense industry".
Since December, Putin has "held several high-level meetings and visited defense contractors across the country."
The Russian President has also publicly admitted problems with the supply of armaments and called on his ministers to issue government procurement orders more quickly.
A nationalization of property is also under discussion.
Russia: Moscow wants to control propaganda about the Ukraine war again
5th measure taken by Moscow: Control propaganda on the Ukraine war.
Moscow is taking action "to regain control over war reporting," writes ISW.
It is a sign that more and more Russian military bloggers have recently been shaping public opinion.
For example, ex-Russian secret service agent Igor Girkin publicly warned of a civil war in Russia.
The Kremlin is therefore intensifying its efforts to "establish relationships with prominent war supporters".
Conversely, propagandists in the Kremlin would report consequences under international law "which await Russia if it does not win the war".
This should "stoke fears of defeat".
But where could a major Russian offensive take place?
The ISW also comments on this.
Ukraine war: Russian major offensive at Luhansk?
On Kyiv?
Or waiting for the counter-offensive?
1st Scenario: Major offensive near Luhansk:
An attack is therefore most likely in the Luhansk area, which is almost completely occupied.
"The complete conquest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remains the Kremlin's official war goal," writes the US think tank.
Logistically, conquests are the easiest to achieve here.
Russian armed forces have deployed additional forces to Luhansk Oblast since 2022, ISW reports.
Scenario 2: A Russian defensive operation to repel a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Ukrainian officials would signal their intention to launch counter-offensives in 2023, the paper said: "Russian forces may attempt to successfully thwart a Ukrainian counter-offensive and deprive Ukraine of the initiative by destroying a significant portion of Ukraine's mechanized forces."
This would in turn allow for a Russian counter-offensive.
3rd Scenario: Another Russian offensive on Kyiv.
The ISW observed the regrouping and training of conventional Russian units in Belarus.
The
Bild
writes of allegedly 12,000 soldiers .
However, a possible Russian offensive against northern Ukraine from Belarus remains "a worst-case scenario", which ISW estimates "as low and the risk of direct involvement by Belarus as very low".
(pm)