On the eve of the first day of national action against the pension reform, the executive is preparing for a very large mobilization, even if it may not take the magnitude of the surge triggered against the Juppé plan in December 1995. Between 550,000 and 750,000 demonstrators are expected on “
Black Thursday
”.
That is a figure lower than the million people in the street that the unions are hoping for.
“
The mobilization will take place in all the traditional sectors of the public service, the private sector, transport or even energy
”, confirms an informed source before adding: “
Many citizens, not always used to pounding the pavement, will join the movement
.
At the call of all professional organizations, between 220 and 250 processions should be formed across the country.
Marseille or Lyon could host the biggest parades in the regions, each capable of hosting up to 20,000 opponents of the reform.
At the same time between 50 and 80,000 people are expected in Paris.
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The "
yellow vests
" will indeed be there, but the intelligence services are not expecting a tidal wave.
During its recent mobilizations, the supporters of this citizen protest numbered 40,000 and analysts at Place Beauvau doubt that they can federate more this Thursday.
“
During this trade union day, they do not have the capacity to lead the movement and no one knows if they will be integrated or set aside in the processions
”, observes an informed source.
The ultra-left under close surveillance
10,000 police and gendarmes will be mobilized throughout the territory, including 3,500 in Paris.
“
The concern is obviously that it will degenerate on the ground
”, concedes a public order executive.
If there is nothing to fear on the side of the unions which will pull out their muscles by mobilizing and launching peaceful slogans, the ultra left is the subject of all attention.
In Paris, between 200 and 400 politicized thugs are expected, knowing that they could cross the 2,000 mark at the national level.
Even if they have not detected a general call for mobilization on social networks, the intelligence services monitor the traditional centers of the anarcho-autonomous movement such as Nantes, Grenoble, Rennes, Lyon,
Read alsoRetirements: demography, largely forgotten by the reform
These rioters could take advantage of the mass of demonstrators to slip into the processions, constitute "
black blocks
" with the capacity to deploy "
reinforced banners
".
"
This technique aims to install a large black flag, thick and rigid, in the front line to hide and protect oneself from the throwing of grenades
", blows a technician who also underlines the "
peripheral risk linked to possible attempts by groups of 'extreme right who would like to join the parades
'.
The unknown of young people and retirees
On the eve of a day that will be a test, the executive is faced with two well-identified unknowns.
Youth first: “
Even if there is no general call to strike, students and high school students risk being out as teachers go on strike
”.
The presence of teenagers and young adults in the parades is always a challenge for the police, still marked by the death of Malik Oussekine, in December 1986 in Paris.
“
Retirees then are the subject of all attention,
blows an informed source
.
It is difficult to estimate the level of anger and that could swell the ranks of the protesters
”.
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Finally, due to threats and possible malicious acts targeting elected officials in this context of social revolt, the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin issued a note to the prefects on Thursday asking for the implementation of "
protection measures
" specific.
In this document brought to the attention of
Le Figaro
, the first cop in France warns: “
No act of intimidation, and a fortiori no violence, against elected officials, in particular parliamentarians, is tolerable
”.
While the surroundings of the offices and the social networks will be monitored, each fact will be reported to the public prosecutor.
