Enlarge image
Worship service for Russian soldiers near Moscow in mid-January: “Actually, the army was on the right track”
Photo: YULIA MOROZOVA / REUTERS
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has presented ambitious plans to reform the Russian army after numerous mishaps and defeats in Ukraine.
The number of soldiers in the army is to increase by 150,000 to 1.5 million.
In addition, new motorized brigades and airborne divisions are to be created, and the training of soldiers is also to be improved.
Shoigu's predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, started out with similarly ambitious plans.
He wanted to streamline the officer corps, professionalize the army, including the generals, and combat corruption in the armaments industry.
Ironically, because of a corruption scandal on his own behalf, Serdyukov was fired by President Vladimir Putin in 2012.
The Russian armed forces were able to show progress at the time - but this was partially reversed by his successor Shoigu.
According to President Putin's directive, Defense Minister Shoigu is now to carry out "large-scale changes" in the armed forces over the next three years.
The "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) sees in it "the will to reform the military to enable conventional warfare, not only with regard to Ukraine".
However, like other experts, the institute has doubts as to whether Shoigu can really achieve this in the comparatively short period of time.
Not attractive as an employer
"It will be extremely difficult to let the army grow to such a size," explains Franz-Stefan Gady, a military expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
“There is a lack of logistics for that.
People will always refer back to the doctrine of the Soviet armed forces, which, however, has nothing to do with the warfare of the 21st century.« Gady sees major deficits in the ossified structure of the army and the quality of officer training, which will improve in the short term couldn't be fixed.
Russia would have to find better staff and raise more funds.
In addition, according to Gady, the Russian army is not attractive enough as an employer.
Due to its logistical problems, the Russian army was repeatedly conspicuous in the war against Ukraine by poorly treating and supplying its soldiers.
According to the experts, morale within the troops is not particularly good.
In addition, there are always rigid maneuvers in Ukraine, the troops are not flexible enough and cannot adapt well enough to the combat conditions in the field, which is partly due to the hierarchical structures in the military.
"Actually, the army was on the right track - until Shoigu became defense minister," says Gady.
"The really painful reforms will not be feasible under the current political leadership."
more on the subject
Fear of new mobilization: How many more men does Putin send to war?By Ann-Dorit Boy
Fighting for Bachmut: The brutal tactics of the Wagner troops in the DonbassBy Oliver Imhof
The One Man Church: How Russia's Clergy Makes Itself the Kremlin's Propaganda MachineA column by Mikhail Zygar
With the change in the Ministry of Defense from Serdyukov to Shoigu, Russia took a step backwards to the old days when political networks counted for more than achievement.
Despite the structural deficits, Moscow could still manage to increase its combat strength in the medium term - through mobilization and recruitment by the private mercenary group Wagner.
This would also have consequences for the war of aggression in Ukraine.
"The reform and increase in the armed forces will not substantially affect the war for a few months," is how the ISW assesses the situation.
“But it could change the composition of the troops in 2024.
And that would ensure that Russia poses a significantly higher military threat to its neighbors – including NATO.”
According to the ISW, if Ukraine continues to be supported by Western partners, there are still opportunities for larger offensives up to the summer.
Until then, the mobilization rather than the increase in the professional army will play a role on the Russian side.
As can already be observed: "At Bachmut, for example, the Russians can now rotate troops," says Gady.
The sheer mass of untrained soldiers there probably hold back further offensives by the Ukrainians.
If Russia activates more fighters, that could probably drag out the war for years.