The US is willing to help Ukraine in Crimea

WASHINGTON - For years, the United States has insisted that Crimea remain part of Ukraine.

However, the Biden administration has taken a hard line since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, refusing to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to attack the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has been using as a base for devastating attacks.

Now that line is

People rest on a beach as smoke and flames rise after explosions at a Russian military airbase, in Novofedorivka, Crimea, August 9, 2022. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

After months of talks with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is finally beginning to admit that Ukraine may need the power to attack the Russian sanctuary, even if such

of escalation, according to several US officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. to discuss the delicate debate.

Crimea, situated between the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, is home to tens of thousands of entrenched Russian troops and numerous Russian military bases.

White House officials insist

in position.

Crimea, they say, belongs to Ukraine.

"We have said throughout the war that Crimea is Ukraine, and Ukraine has the right to defend itself and its sovereign territory at its internationally recognized borders," said Adrienne Watson, spokeswoman for the National Security Council.

Privately, military and administration officials had questioned the usefulness of Ukraine focusing its attacks on Crimea, arguing that the Ukrainian military had

elsewhere on the battlefield.

But the Biden administration has come to believe that if the Ukrainian military can show Russia that its control of Crimea may be threatened, that would strengthen Ukraine's position in any future negotiations.

Also, fears that the Kremlin would retaliate using a tactical nuclear weapon

, US officials and experts said, though they warned the risk remained.

The new way of thinking about Crimea - illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 - shows how far Biden administration officials have come since the start of the war, when they were leery of even

that the US was supplying Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. to the Ukrainian troops.

But throughout the conflict, the United States and its NATO allies have loosened the manacles they put on themselves, shifting from supplying

to advanced missile systems,

air defense systems , armored fighting vehicles and even some western tanks to give Ukraine the ability to hit against the onslaught of Russia.

Now the Biden administration is considering what would be one of its boldest moves to date, helping Ukraine attack the peninsula that Russia's President

sees as an integral part of his quest to restore

.

US officials are discussing with their Ukrainian counterparts the use of US-supplied weapons, from

rocket systems to Bradley fighting vehicles, to possibly attack Putin's tight hold on a land bridge that serves as a critical supply route connecting Crimea with Russia through the Russian-

occupied cities of

However, President

is not yet ready to hand Ukraine the long-range missile systems it would need to attack Russian facilities on the peninsula.

Ukrainian officials have long insisted that Crimea is a major target of their attacks and that continuing military pressure on Russian bases there is a significant part of their strategy.

The Ukrainian military has also discussed with US officials the importance of increasing pressure on the

in Crimea, which supports military operations in other parts of Ukraine.

With the

a major Russian airbase, command posts and logistics centers supporting Russian operations in southern Ukraine, the peninsula represents a

in Ukraine's battle plans.

By deciding to hand over the Bradleys to Ukraine, the Biden administration has come close to providing Ukraine with something that top Ukrainian officials have been imploring the United States for months:

direct US aid to move Ukraine on the offensive, including attacking Crimea.

Bradleys are armored personnel carriers equipped with powerful 25mm guns and guided missiles that can take on Russian tanks.

Frederick Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former US Army high command in Europe, said Ukrainian troops could use the Bradleys to help cut the land bridge in the coming months.

Being able to count on military bases in Crimea as a base of operations was the main reason Russian forces were able to seize land in southern Ukraine last year, according to a US official.

Reducing the capacity of those forces is a key objective of the Ukrainians on the battlefield.

"Ukraine could use the Bradleys to move forces along major highways, such as the M14, which connects Kherson, Melitopol and Mariupol," added Seth Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Any Ukrainian infantry advancing through these areas would face significant fire from Russian positions, and the Bradleys offer useful firepower and protection for the troops."

The Bradleys, along with British tanks and armored fighting vehicles that France and Germany have agreed to send, could form the vanguard of an armored force Ukraine could use in a counteroffensive this winter or spring, government and independent analysts say.

"We believe that now is the right time to step up our support for Ukraine," British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said on Tuesday during a visit to Washington.

"

on and become some kind of

attrition-type stalemate ."

The British Ministry of Defense said in a Twitter message last week that in recent weeks,

Russia had reinforced defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia, a province in southern Ukraine close to the land bridge and where Russia maintains a large force.

If Ukraine focuses on retaking Zaporizhzhia, preliminary strikes could include hitting targets in nearby Crimea.

A Ukrainian breakthrough into Zaporizhzhia would seriously call into question the viability of the Russian "land bridge," the British assessment states.

Ukraine also has US-supplied HIMARS long-range rocket systems.

With last year's recapture of Kherson in the south, Ukrainian front lines can now use them to attack main supply routes out of Crimea, a US military official said in an interview.

This week, top US and Ukrainian commanders will hold a high-level planning meeting in Germany to finalize planning for the offensive, another senior US official said.

The drill, the official said, is intended to align Ukraine's battle plans with the types of weapons and supplies NATO allies are contributing.

Ukrainian authorities fear their country will not be able to survive years of stalemate conflict as Russia continues to pound cities and towns.

So they see no choice but to target Crimea and endanger it, a senior US official said, noting that the issue has come up in recent high-level meetings at the White House.

Yet despite the additional weaponry, the Biden administration does not believe that Ukraine can take over Crimea militarily – and indeed, there are still concerns that such a move could prompt Putin to

with an escalated response.

But, according to the officials, their assessment now is that Russia needs to believe that Crimea is in danger, in part to bolster Ukraine's position in any future negotiations.

By demonstrating the ability to strike in Crimea, US officials say, Ukraine could show that Russian control is not established.

The Biden administration also increasingly believes that hitting Russia's rear lines by exiting Crimea could seriously damage Moscow's ability to push its front lines further, officials say.

"Without Crimea, the whole thing

," said Evelyn Farkas, the Pentagon's top Ukraine official during the Obama administration.

Contributing to this change in mindset, officials say, were the alleviation of fears that attacking Crimea would lead Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon.

"It seems to me that, more and more, the Administration is recognizing that the threat of a Russian escalation may not be what they thought it was before," Hodges said.

Change?

While Ukrainian attacks inside Russia continue to raise concern among US officials, Moscow's reaction to regular Ukrainian special operations or covert attacks in Crimea - including against Russian air bases, command posts and ships of the Russian fleet Black Sea- has

"There's more clarity around their tolerance for damage and attacks," said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corp.

"Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation by the Kremlin."

Even so, Putin and the Russian public view Crimea as part of Russia, so attacks there

Russian support for the war.

For their part, US officials say they do not know how Putin will react if Ukraine attacks Crimea using US-supplied weapons.

Massicot said none of Ukraine's handful of attacks on Crimea so far have threatened Russia's ability to maintain its claim to the peninsula.

"So they may not be an accurate test of Russia's resolve on this point," he said.

Last month, Secretary of State

reiterated the permanent US policy on Ukraine:

that the Biden administration was trying to help the country reclaim territory taken

last year's Russian invasion.

"Our goal is to continue to do what we've been doing, which is to make sure that Ukraine has in its hands what it needs to defend itself, what it needs to deal with Russian aggression, to take back the territory that has been taken from it

," Blinken said at The Wall Street Journal's Council of CEOs summit.

By Blinken's definition, that territory does not include Crimea.

This stance, according to critics, has given the Russian military an untouchable sanctuary from which to attack Ukraine.

"In essence, we have put limits on Ukraine, saying that this war is going to be fought on their soil and not on Russian soil," said Philip Breedlove, a retired four-star Air Force general who was NATO's Supreme Allied Commander. for Europe when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014.

"Giving Russia a sanctuary from which to fight, without fear of reproach, is absolutely absurd. It makes no military sense."

c.2023 The New York Times Company

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