The classified documents crisis haunts Biden in the premiere of the second half of his term

A divided Congress.

A skyrocketing inflation.

Research perspectives.

And, since last week, a new crisis surrounding the discovery of classified documents from his time as vice president in his private residence and office.

The president of the United States, Joe Biden, celebrates two years in the White House this Friday with the prospect of great challenges for the second half of his term.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Biden was on a roll.

In the first half of his term he managed to pass more and far-reaching legislation than any of his predecessors since Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969) in the same term.

The midterm elections last November produced better results than expected for the Democrats, several of whom had avoided during the campaign a Biden who was going through his worst moments of unpopularity: that party expanded its control of the Senate and lost the House of Representatives, albeit only for a handful of seats.

Republicans appeared disoriented after a vote to choose House speaker that required 15 rounds of voting for Kevin McCarthy to win enough support.

In December, Biden tweeted: “I think it's going to be a great year.

Why?

Because we are going to start developing a lot of the things that we approved last year.”

But then the case of the classified papers broke out.

The White House revealed last week that confidential documents were found in November in the office of a

that Biden had maintained after his time as vice president and in his private residence in Wilmington, Delaware.

The head of the Justice Department, Merrick Garland, appointed Robert K. Hur as special prosecutor to investigate the case.

Republicans quickly launched an avalanche of criticism about Biden's team hiding the finding for two months.

The incident could complicate the president's management in the coming months and his campaign for re-election in 2024.

The challenges for this second half of the term have already begun.

With a new Republican majority in the House, it will be much more difficult for the Democratic Administration to pass bills in Congress.

Donald Trump's party is determined to launch investigations and impeachment trials into almost every aspect of government policy, from the withdrawal from Afghanistan to immigration strategy.

And, above all others, about the business dealings of the president's son, Hunter, which they consider dubious.

The federal debt will reach its definitive ceiling in about six months, and Republicans and Democrats must negotiate its increase so that the country can meet its payments.

Both sides remain locked in their positions.

“We are not going to negotiate with this,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre declared this week.

The debt limit must be approved "unconditionally", she added.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans insist that without major cuts in government spending they won't give the go-ahead.

The current tenant of the White House is not exactly the most charismatic of the presidents that the United States has had.

He has a reputation for being clumsy and for screwing up when speaking, amid accusations that his age, 80, weighs too much on him.

(Sleepy Joe) is one of the nicknames with which his predecessor and political rival, Donald Trump, describes him.

And the nickname has stuck.

But his age also brings experience.

His knowledge of how the system works after more than 40 years in the Senate has allowed him to obtain the approval of very ambitious measures, several of them with the support of congressmen from both parties.

Legislative measures

His $1.9 trillion post-pandemic rescue package went ahead in the first weeks after he was sworn in on January 20, 2021, with echoes of the assault on the Capitol still fresh in the ears of everyone.

Months later, Congress gave the go-ahead to his Billion Dollar Infrastructure Law, the largest in a generation and which allocates hundreds of millions of dollars for areas such as the electricity grid or airports.

After more than a year of tough negotiations with the Democrats closest to Republican positions, Biden achieved the approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), an ambitious economic and environmental program to reach the goal to cut emissions to 40% below 2006 levels by the end of this decade.

He also aspires to stimulate the national industry, promote research in Artificial Intelligence, biotechnology or quantum technology, among others.

Although some of the measures approved these two years could have fueled galloping inflation at first, they are beginning to bear fruit.

Unemployment remains at low levels and the price of gasoline has fallen from the highs it reached this summer.

Even inflation, Biden's great economic problem in the last two years and which reached 9.1% in June, seems to be coming under control: the wholesale index fell more than expected, 0.5% in December.

Foreign policy

The intense activity of these two years has also extended to foreign policy.

Biden's tenure began in this area with a step that is still controversial: the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years of war.

But White House Security Adviser Jake Sullivan insists that the exit "was the right decision from a strategic point of view" and has allowed the United States to focus on worse "threats more of the 21st century, not the ones that had in 2001 or 2002."

Strong US support for Ukraine has enabled the government of President Volodimir Zelensky to resist Russia's nearly year-long invasion and recapture some of the territory seized by Moscow.

Washington has strengthened old alliances and created new military ties, such as the Aukus (Australia, United Kingdom and United States) in Asia.

It closed an agreement with Mexico on immigration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela that has reduced the number of immigrants of those nationalities that cross the border irregularly.

It has, to some extent, repaired relations with European partners damaged during Trump's tenure, though these allies lament that the IRA legislation protects American domestic industry at their expense.

Zelensky and Biden meeting at the White House, last December. DPA via Europa Press

Not all have been successes.

After the conservative Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, which had protected abortion rights nationwide since 1973, Biden had promised legislation to guarantee it at the federal level if Democrats maintained their legislative majority in both chambers.

Something that is now ruled out.

Nor has there been any progress on the migration issue, eternally pending.

Popularity

But the presidential popularity, which has been in the doldrums for months, is rising.

From the lows below 40% it has risen to 44%, according to a survey published this week by the University of Massachusetts-Amherst.

The political climate for the announcement of his candidacy for re-election was favorable.

“While the president has enjoyed a rise in his approval ratings, especially among young, independent, working-class Americans, and college-educated people, a majority of the public (52%) continue to express negative views of his tenure.

As he considers running for the White House in 2024, Biden and his supporters hope that his rise in approval is a preview of what is to come, ”says Tatishe Nteta, professor of Political Science and co-director of the survey.

The survey is prior to the scandal of the documents.

Something that has given new wings to some demoralized Republicans and who demand to know all kinds of details about the case.

And that, according to what the investigation finds, if he ends up facing Trump in the next elections, as expected, he can neutralize one of the president's weapons: his image of honesty in front of a former president suspected of obstruction of Justice.

The real estate mogul amassed thousands of classified materials that had to be recovered from an FBI search at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence, after months of unanswered requests.

Despite the fact that both cases are very different - the documents in Biden's possession are much fewer, and the president and his team are collaborating with the investigation -, the Republicans already allege that the current president has been treated with a white glove and Trump, so unfair and overzealous.

From now on, new clashes between Democrats and Republicans can be expected.

The latter promise to open new investigations.

The Administration has hired additional legal counsel and communication experts to respond to these investigations.

For now, the White House is trying to contain the damage and wait out this storm.

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