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Corruption and elections: the report of a government pollster with very hard data for Cristina Kirchner

2023-01-21T16:49:18.182Z


He asked about his judicial situation and electoral run. In La Rosada they affirm that they did not order it.


Guilty of corruption and zero influential for the election.

The

latest national survey

of

one of the three consultants closest to Alberto Fernández

brings those two on

Cristina Kirchner

.

It is not the opinion of the President, it is understood, but of the majority of those interviewed by this analyst.

But the mere mention refers to the

irreplaceable internal

 with which the formula mates of the Frente de Todos live.

Clarín

already anticipated part of this study, which had other suggestive questions about the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa,

determined to be a candidate if he manages to lower inflation

(until now he has not succeeded).

It is a survey of 1,000 cases, by telephone and in person, surveyed before the end of the year.

The results were published with +/- 3.16% margin of error.

The author of the report is

Hugo Haime

, an experienced and well-known consultant linked to Peronism and who, along with

Analía del Franco and Roberto Bacman

, became the

three analysts closest to Alberto Fernández

since Cristina nominated him as a candidate.

Haime

was also Massa's pollster in previous elections

.

The Minister of Economy assures that today he does not have a contractual relationship with him, but this newspaper is aware that reports from him reach him. 

Official government sources confirmed to Clarín this Saturday that Haime continues to do work for the Casa Rosada.

But they assured that this particular study was not commissioned by them.


Cristina without electoral influence?


The 36-page report begins with a comprehensive summary of results.

And there a paragraph stands out, highlighted in "bold" type, where 

the electoral impact of the vice president's displacement

due to alleged proscription is minimized.

Says so:

"This month's PASO result is the same as the previous month, without the exclusion of Cristina Kirchner from the stage modifying the electoral flow of the ruling party. The sum of the leaders of Juntos exceeds those of the Frente de Todos by 4 points, but should inflation drop substantially, the election result is reversed."


This conclusion

is contradicted by other reports that Clarín has been publishing

, where Cristina's influence on voting intentions is very high.

Not only is it the one that measures best for the inmate of the Frente de Todos (remains with two thirds of the pro-government votes): nominally it is usually the most elected (around 20 points) of all the candidates, with Javier Milei below.

The last national survey by Hugo Haime, one of the closest consultants to the Government, asked about the images of the leaders: Cristina was second to last.

As this newspaper also explained, his Achilles heel at the polls is his very high rejection, which would prevent him from winning a runoff against almost any candidate.

But

Haime's report introduces a new element and debate

: the departure of the vice would be innocuous for PASO.

In a table of images, he even places it next to last by differential between 12 leaders.

As electoral variants,

the consultant offers Fernández, Massa and Minister Wado de Pedro as pre-candidates

.

More takeaways:


- "A

STEP scenario

with multiple candidates shows that the sum of the leaders of Together for Change registers 36% of votes, while those of the Frente de todos reach 32%, which

marks stability compared to last month

. This continues to show a tie situation as in the two previous months, considering the margin of error of the sample and that there are still almost 10% of those interviewed who do not define their vote".

The latest national survey by Hugo Haime, one of the closest consultants to the Government.

He assures that Cristina's departure does not take votes away from the Frente de Todos.

- "The preferences of the intention to vote, this time

without the candidacy of Cristina Kirchner

, is headed by Javier Milei (20%) who remains stable. Seconds are: Rodríguez Larreta with 13%; Patricia Bullrich; Alberto Fernández and Sergio Massa, all with 12%, followed by: Mauricio Macri (6%), Manes (3%) and Wado De Pedro (3%)."

- "In the ruling party, in the absence of Cristina Kirchner, President Alberto Fernández and Sergio Massa manage to capture the majority of their votes, while Wado De Pedro reaches 3% and other leaders 5%.

The exclusion of Cristina Kirchner from electoral scenario does not modify the electoral flow of the ruling party

".


Cristina guilty of corruption

The other portion of the study is surely difficult for Cristina to digest is the one that messes with her legal situation.

Haime, in this case, asks about the 6-year sentence for corruption in public works against the vice at the beginning of December.

"The Court sentenced Cristina Kirchner for corruption. In your opinion, are you guilty or innocent of the charges brought against you by the Court?"

, raises the survey.

With hard results for the former president.

The latest national survey by Hugo Haime, one of the closest consultants to the Government, asked about the sentence against Cristina Kirchner.

"

Only 21% of those interviewed believe that Cristina Kirchner is innocent

regarding the charges of corruption for which she has been convicted, while seven out of ten believe in the guilt of the Vice President," Haime points out.

And he continues: "Among those who voted for Alberto Fernández in 2019, 46% consider Cristina Kirchner innocent, 41% believe her guilty and 13% do not know."

That is to say,

even the voters themselves, according to this survey, do not believe in the version of the vice. 

"When asking if the judges acted correctly or if there was a political persecution of the former president,

61% consider that they acted correctly

, while 33% believe that the sentence responds to political harassment."

Source: clarin

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