The impeachment of the Court has a price
The request for impeachment is the garment that the ruling party has put on the stage
to negotiate a reopening of Congress
.
As a project it is an unfeasible invention: you have to read it for what it does not say, rather than for its political functionality for a paralyzed government.
Raise the hatchet against the Court, inflame the opposition and businessmen.
What remains now, what usually happens: a call to sit down and exchange figures: we lower it, in exchange for what?
Today
the first to move chips at that table is Sergio Massa
.
They have stopped him from a bill to reform the money laundering law, which is dragging on dark money laundering, which can bring him closer to USD 3,000 million.
By the way, if the legislative operation is unblocked, he can try to recover the tool that until last November allowed him to be the strongest link in the presidential trifecta, with control of the Chamber of Deputies.
He is
the one who has the most to gain if a negotiating chapter is opened with the opposition
.
There is pressure and from businessmen on opposition legislators to carry out some of these initiatives.
The victim is Massa
The difficulty is that
a pact like that does not greatly benefit his partners
at the top, especially Cristina de Kirchner.
She has condemned Massa's program as heretic because it is based on the agreement with the IMF inherited from Martín Guzmán.
The explanatory offer attributes Cristina to being the one who fires the political trial, because she wants to discredit the Justice that has sentenced her.
Proof of this
is his Twitter incontinence
dealing with judicial issues in the middle of the fair.
A passion worthy of a better cause.
Nor does Alberto help him, who has not sent any of the Massista projects to Congress.
He only sent an annex to the decree calling extraordinary meetings that lists them.
But the text is missing.
A pretext to fight and negotiate
The opposition of Together for Change has plenty of energy to fight against that judgment.
It has allowed him to soften internal differences
.
The objective of disrupting what is today the main government project is a strategic gift.
As is the provisional nature of the arguments contained in that choclazo of more than 400 pages that the deputies signed.
Even if it achieves the majority opinion, it is an inexhaustible source of annulments.
Surely because what the project seeks is not to improve justice or change the Court.
It
's creating a fight that gives you a bargaining tool
.
Only in search of that pretext can they accuse the Court of declaring the unconstitutionality of laws -when it is their job- to challenge it for the content of their sentences;
going through summer blunders such as putting in the heading of the letter that they request the prosecution for "the reasons and causes that will be exposed
above
" (they should have put
ut infra
-too much copy-paste-) or citing as the main element the denunciation of the President and a dozen governors against the court.
This complaint is a newsletter that has not entered any ticket table and lacks formality.
He gave them to two Alberto deputies one afternoon in his office
From him.
All will be subjects of the first skirmish that will be fought in the Commission this Thursday, when the admissibility of the procedure is analyzed.
The president of the Commission will declare it admissible
because the regulations allow it.
The opposition will reject this attribution to Ana Gaillard
on the grounds that the Commission is a collegiate body and that its decisions are joint.
They will propose that an admissibility subcommittee be created, which is where the first and main battle will be fought.
A gift to the opposition
It will not be easy for the ruling party to obtain this opinion approval, because it has the majority that every government ensures in that commission, and that the opposition always grants so that it has the capacity to defend itself.
It is a matter of state.
The project must go through the sieve of criticism from the opposition, which has a reason for unity in rejecting the Court's trial.
It is
a mistake for the Frente de Todos, which has always prospered with initiatives that divide the opposition
.
Less than a year before the elections, it occurred to him to plant a banner with a project that has managed to overwhelm his adversaries.
The least indicated when you have to dispute at the polls.
The ruling party in Deputies is a band in dispersion,
since Maxi Kirchner launched the anti-personnel grenade at the end of last year
, when he resigned from the presidency in repudiation of the agreement with the IMF.
The drift to which the ruling party navigates from that moment has made them run aground.
They even
forget basic elements of the political experience
.
One of them is what is the nature of the Impeachment Commission.
It does not exist to attack anyone;
on the contrary, it is a bunker to protect those prosecutable from the ruling party at all times.
Alberto checked out
Until the Constitutional Reform of 1994, it was the court that judged the judges.
Since then it is
a defensive tool, not offensive
.
The presidents usually designate in the presidency of the Commission to a deputy of the extreme confidence and loyalty of him.
With Carlos Menem the keeper was César Arias;
with Mauricio Macri, Álvaro González.
It is usually integrated by the presidents of the blocks
, due to the importance of the matter they have to observe.
Its function is to guard the gates of hell, and an oversight can be the grave of a president.
The first mandate is that they never meet, and they haven't for years.
There is no institutional memory among the current deputies on how it should work, when and where.
Due to this lack of memory, Alberto Fernández did not appoint his own deputy to chair that commission
, to keep the keys for him.
The president of the Commission fulfills the same custody function as the federal judge of San Isidro, which is where cases that may affect Olivos' residence are heard.
Nor does Alberto – a stylist of weakness – have anyone there to take care of him.
It was tested in the minuet on the Olivos-gate, which made Alberto pay the most expensive birthday of his life.
And it was his wife's.
Everyone plays with what they have
Everyone plays with what they have, and it is difficult to overcome the limitations of origin.
He goes to the elections with assets and liabilities.
It's like sex, as a Philip Barantini character defines it: "You go there for what's there, not for what's not there" ("Boiling Point", film).
Together for Change is at the top of the vote intention polls
, due to the deterioration of the Government and because it has maintained a unity that Peronism did not have when it was in opposition between 2015 and 2019.
It shares with the Frente de Todos the weakness of being
a coalition without a single leadership
.
This weak flank does not impair the identification of the two stamps with the historical vote of Peronism and non-Peronism.
Whoever the Peronist candidate is, it will not go below 35%
.
It is foolish to say that the votes are for Cristina or Kicillof and that is why they are promoting clamoring operations for them to be candidates.
Any of the leaders of Peronism would retain that percentage of votes.
The same is true of the opposition, which identifies with Together for Change, which has grown in its percentage of votes since 2015, up to 42% in the 2021 legislative elections. It is
idle to speculate on a surprise result in the October elections
, which will be the same as that of 2015. In the final result, which is not set in stone, the one who best resists deterioration will benefit.
Whoever campaigns best will not have power.
The effort is in knowing not to lose.
No politician asks why
PvC's main asset for elections is unity, and this allows you to negotiate the same strategy.
For now it is winning, although someone like Macri qualified it with a brilliant but innocuous adjective for politicians: winning, but for what?
No politician considers that
.
Those who say they have access to his privacy affirm that he believes he has the ability to compete and win, but that he fears sitting in the office without allies that allow him to govern.
He does not help himself with the phobia he has of the Peronist governors, whom he stirred up in his rap in Bariloche.
Just to them, who were winners in their provinces of the 2015-2019 mandate, when
they made the best negotiations with the Macri administration
.
They ended that cycle with a fiscal surplus and the ability to re-elect and control their territories.
It was a triumph for those leaders but also for the Macri administration.
He now sees the meekness of some of his associates as a threat, whom he points out as stokers of a light populism.
summer flirts
Either Macri doubts being a candidate or plays with the spirit of others to secure positions of power.
In his appearances he admits
to flirting with Javier Milei
- whom he wants in a legislative agreement - according to what he said in Mar del Plata.
Something more modest than the request of Martín Tetaz, that he wants an electoral pact with the liberista in the province of Buenos Aires.
Tetaz's godparents look at these expressions as a spokesman for Macri.
Wasn't it from Lousteau?
, wondered in Mar del Plata the radicals who went to cheer on the launch of Maxi Abad and noticed the absence of video calls of adhesion of the two Martín -Lousteau and Tetaz-.
The boss of all of them, Emiliano Yacobitti, excused them: I have a video of Mariela Coletta, president of the UCR of CABA, she is an accountant, like us.
I have to take care of the others.
What does Macri take them from?
Well, send me Coletta.
Macri already designs roads
In the meeting in Bariloche with PRO legislators from all over the country and with speakers from Larretismo -Hernán Lacunza, Eugenio Burzaco, Waldo Wolf-
Macri spoke more about (not) shared dreams
.
He imagined giving orders from the dome: I have spoken with Guillo Dietrich to be Minister of Transport and take care of making pavements.
"I ask you to come back - he specified - and that quick access be made from Villa la Angostura and from the Airport to Bariloche. We are on the same road that Bustillo did more than 80 years ago.
I can't believe there isn't a highway
. In Bustillo you know when you leave, but not when you arrive, when there are alternatives with two-lane roads, dirt roads inside, connecting Bustillo with Lake Gutiérrez or Lake Moreno".
Put your batteries on, Guillo
.
The larretistas mentally wrote down those audacity of those who say they are not a candidate.
To give color to the moment, he joked with a legislator who asked him for one more selfie by the pool of the Hotel Cacique Inacayal.
"-Please, Presi, the last one..." "-If you say again that it's the last one – Macri laughed – I'll throw you into the water".
Mauricio, who is jolly and touchy, pretended to throw him dressed and with a watch.
look also
Massa's last letter
Máximo Kirchner, silent and furious, operates against Alberto Fernández, Kicillof and Massa
