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Election in Lower Austria: why it is so exciting (and threatening)

2023-01-24T15:15:22.797Z


Despite the scandals, the right-wing FPÖ could triumph in the state elections in Lower Austria. What does this mean for the federal government in Vienna?


Next Sunday there will be state elections in Lower Austria, which will have political significance beyond the state.

Lower Austria is not only the largest federal state in terms of area, it also has the most eligible voters: around 1.3 million people can cast their votes on Sunday.

Lower Austria is characterized by several special features.

On the one hand, the ÖVP governs there with an absolute majority.

Except for Burgenland, where SPÖ governor Hans Peter Doskozil governs alone, there is no other federal state like this.

In Lower Austria, the ÖVP currently holds 49.63 percent of the votes, 29 of the 56 mandates in the state parliament, and in the government it has six of the nine government seats.

Which brings us to the second peculiarity: Lower Austria has a proportional government.

The seats are distributed according to the result of the election.

The outcome of the election will be particularly exciting for three parties.

ÖVP

According to polls, the ÖVP could lose a fifth of their votes on Sunday.

It would be an electoral defeat, although that is relative.

The party would still be around 40 percent – ​​ÖVP boss and Chancellor Karl Nehammer can only dream of that, who is currently tinkering around at 20 percent.

But whether there is a four or just a three in front of the election result in St. Pölten on Sunday is of fundamental importance.

Despite a clear minus, 41 percent would still be celebrated as a triumph because it was better than forecast.

If the ÖVP gets 39 percent, people will be very disappointed not only in Lower Austria but also in Vienna: The reason for the electoral defeat will not be sought in Lower Austria, but in the federal government.

Political pressure would increase on Nehammer, who himself is from Lower Austria.

Criticism of him could perhaps also come from other federal states.

That could also disrupt cooperation with the Greens if the guidelines from the federal states were presented more vehemently.

For state governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner, the decisive factor will be whether she loses not only the absolute majority but also the majority in the state government.

It is hardly conceivable that she will be dethroned by the SPÖ and FPÖ, but maybe she will no longer enjoy governing herself.

SPÖ

The SPÖ is not threatened with an election defeat, but even the slightest minus would be interpreted as a failure - and rightly so.

If the SPÖ cannot benefit from the weakness of the ÖVP, then they have done something wrong.

You can look for the mistakes in the state party and in the federal party, you will find something good in both.

The election campaign of the state SPÖ was too funny, the performance of the federal party was not helpful - and the eternal quarrel with Hans Peter Doskozil in Burgenland will have contributed to the minus.

Prognosis: If the red party leader and top candidate Franz Schnabl has to give up his chair as Deputy Governor in Lower Austria, the end of his political career is in sight.

Federal party leader Rendi-Wagner may hold out for a while, but it will be even less fun than it already is.

The impotence of the Reds in the face of the massive shift to the right that is looming is almost frightening.

FPÖ

The FPÖ will emerge from this election as the only winner.

Despite all the scandals, it will be a triumph.

The FPÖ received 15 percent of the votes in 2018, now 25 percent and more are forecast.

We will have to talk and think about this: How can it be that a party that is moving so radically to the right and wants to override human rights gets so much support from the electorate?

Udo Landbauer will not become governor in second place, but he will enjoy his victory.

And further increase the pressure in the country.

What does that mean for party leader Herbert Kickl at the federal level: would a free federal chancellor be conceivable at some point?

Not for most of us.

Apparently, for a relative majority of the population, yes.

We have to deal with that.

Denial is the wrong strategy.

Social media moment of the week

In a personal post on Twitter, the actress Verena Altenberger writes about abuse of power and sexual assaults - and calls for more solidarity in the cultural sector.

At the beginning of her career, according to Altenberger, she would have wished that experienced colleagues would have »taken her by the hand« and said: »I saw you are shooting a scene with xy tomorrow;

watch out, he can be bad if you need support, I'll be there.« The reactions to the post were mostly positive.

Altenberger is a film and theater actress.

In 2021 she embodied the paramour in »Jedermann«.

Because she wore very short hair at the time, she became the focus of a passionate debate.

At that time she defended herself on Twitter.

And how things are in the Altenberger family can also be read in their account with the news service.

Stories that we recommend to you today

  • Lower Austria survey: Only 28 percent would vote for Mikl-Leitner in a direct election 

  • In the sights of the opposition: who could overthrow Lower Austria's governor? 

  • State election: "I use 'terrorist' as a phrase," says Lower Austria's FPÖ leader Landbauer 

Sorry for disturbing the political comfort zone,

warm greetings from Vienna


Yours, Michael Völker

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2023-01-24

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