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New electoral poll: without Cristina Kirchner, the most voted is Javier Milei and the internal ones burn

2023-01-24T12:14:24.418Z


This is shown by an Aresco study. He evaluated STEP, first round and runoff scenarios.


While La Cámpora and other sectors of Kirchnerism do not resign themselves to its slide and rehearse an operational outcry, the pollsters are somewhat colder and began to measure the scenarios without it.

Cristina Kirchner

's announcement

that she would not be a candidate due to an alleged ban is already having a strong impact in the electoral polls.

Clarín

accessed this Tuesday the

latest study

by

Aresco

, one of the best-known consultants in the market and brings powerful data: without the vice president,

the most voted for a STEP is Javier Milei

;

and

the inmates

in Juntos por el Cambio and the Frente de Todos

burn

.

The firm created by

Julio Aurelio

and now run by his son

Federico

 has historical ties to Peronism and today measures on both sides of the crack.

Among its many clients are the national and city governments.

It is a national survey that, before entering the electoral field,

evaluates the efforts

of President

Alberto Fernández

, Governor

Axel Kicillof

and the head of Government

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

.

As in all surveys,

the best numbers in this area are taken by the City

, followed by the Province and last by the Nation.


STEP scenario: Milei the most voted and PvC above

The first table of voting intentions measures for the

presidential primaries

, with three candidates from Juntos por el Cambio, two from the Frente de Todos, two from non-Kirchnerist Peronism, plus Milei for the libertarians and Myriam Bregman for the left.

The most voted is the economist and representative of La Libertad Avanza, with 18.8%.

As space, he reaches him to be third.

First comes

Juntos por el Cambio

, where

Patricia Bullrich surpasses Larreta by three points

: 15.7% to 12.7%.

Complete, far, the radical Facundo Manes with 6.1%.

Total coalition: 34.5%.

Below is the

Frente de Todos

, with 30.2%, which is divided

very evenly between Sergio Massa (15.5%) and Alberto Fernández (14.7%)

.

Aresco's latest national survey.

How are the STEP for the presidential.

Juan Schiaretti and Juan Manuel Urtubey are measured together and they reach only 3.9%.

Barely better than Bregman (2.3%).

They close "other candidates" 3% and "would vote blank or do not know" 7.4%.

Then

Aresco

shows the

evolution of the sum

of the spaces since March 2022. Then the ruling party led, with 35%, against 33.2% of JxC.

But after that, almost every month he led the main opposition alliance, with a maximum gap of 7.4 points in July.

As for

La Libertad Avanza/Milei

, it shows few variations, but with a slight growth in the last month, which allows it to achieve

its best mark: 18.8%.


First round scenarios: the FdT, better with Massa than with Alberto


Later, the poll presents

two first-round scenarios

.

With a particular offer: in Together for Change, the only option is with Larreta and Bullrich together.

In the Frente de Todos, on the other hand, Massa or Alberto Fernández are offered, both "with the support of Cristina Kirchner."

Aresco's latest national survey.

A scenario for the first round, with Massa for the Front of All.

Aresco's latest national survey.

A stage for the first round, with Alberto Fernández for the Frente de Todos.

The Minister of Economy is doing better than the President

.

In

scenario 1

, it adds

29.8%

against

29.5%

of

Larreta + Bullrich

.

Technical tie, with Milei third with 18.8%.

And then Schiaretti + Urtubey with 5.3% and Bregman with 2.8%.

In

scenario 2

,

Larreta + Bullrich

have a slight advantage over

Fernández

:

28.6%

to

25.4%

.

And Milei grows to 22.3%.

Those who are still far behind are Schiaretti + Urtubey with 5.2% and Bregman with 4%.


Runoff scenarios: Larreta and Bullrich, above

Finally,

two runoff scenarios

are measured , with the same logic as the first round.

In Together for Change the offer is Larreta + Bullrich and in the Frente de Todos Massa and Fernández are evaluated separately.

In both cases

the opponents prevail

, but again the Minister of Economy is doing a little better than the President:

Aresco's latest national survey.

A stage for balloting, with Massa for the Front of All.

Aresco's latest national survey.

A stage for balloting, with Alberto Fernández for the Frente de Todos.

- In

scenario 1

,

Larreta + Bullrich beat Massa 41.4% to 35%

, with 13.1% "blank" and 10.5% "don't know".

- In

scenario 2

,

Larreta + Bullrich beat Fernández 41.9% to 33.4%

, with 13% "would vote blank" and 11.7% "don't know".

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-01-24

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