The pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to get Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is increasing by the day.
Also within Germany and, what is more worrying for the harmony of its Executive, from the Cabinet itself.
Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals differ on the type of military aid kyiv should receive almost from the start of the invasion.
Scholz's junior associates have been demanding the delivery of tanks for months.
Until now they had done so through their deputies in the Bundestag, but now it is the ministers who give their opinion in public on such a delicate issue, which threatens to break the unity of the tripartite.
As Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron dined together at the Elysée on Sunday evening, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the green, said in an interview that Germany would not oppose the re-export of the Leopards.
A striking statement because the decision is not in her hand, but in that of the Federal Security Council, and because the chancellor has not yet ruled on the issue.
A few days ago it was the Minister of Economy, the also green Robert Habeck, who gave his opinion on something in which he only has limited competence: "Germany should not interfere in the decisions of other countries to support Ukraine, regardless of the decision they take".
Scholz resists pressure, both external and internal, and seems determined to take his time.
"The government is not ruling out delivering Leopard tanks," his spokeswoman said on Monday: "It has simply not decided whether it will."
At least in public, the chancellor has the support of his party.
The Social Democrats defend him from the opposition's attacks and ask for understanding in the face of a decision of enormous depth, but according to reports by some media, criticism is beginning to surface due to his lack of communication.
Scholz's reservations are known, or rather intuited, but not because he has explained them himself.
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"Instead of publicizing the pros and cons, Scholz prefers to accept the image of a fearful chancellor, weak in leadership and cold-hearted towards Kiev that has been created abroad," says
Der Spiegel
.
The chancellor is concerned that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, finds in the German tanks the excuse for an escalation in the conflict.
"We must prevent it from becoming a war between Russia and NATO," he said last week at the economic forum in Davos (Switzerland).
01:01
Borrell assumes that Germany will allow the shipment of tanks to Ukraine to other EU countries
The High Representative of the foreign policy of the European Union, Josep Borrell, in an appearance before the press in Brussels on Monday.
Photo: REUTERS/Johanna Geron |
Video: EFE
His reluctance also weighs historical considerations.
In the memory of the Germans, the memory of the Nazi tanks devastating half of Europe during World War II is still present.
As a result, Berlin has refused for decades to send its weapons to conflict zones, even banning re-exports from third countries.
That taboo fell at the start of the war in Ukraine, when the government authorized the supply of 1,000 anti-tank missiles and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles from Bundeswehr (German army) stocks to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Little by little, Scholz has been agreeing to send weapons with greater offensive potential, until reaching heavy artillery or the Marder armored vehicles.
But the powerful and agile Leopard 2 tanks are the last red line, and the hardest to cross.
These are machines that can really turn the tables on the battlefield by allowing the Ukrainian Army to attack and retake positions currently held by Russian troops.
Scholz does not want to signify himself, which is why he insists on "not acting alone" and on always deciding in accordance with his allies.
In practice, that statement refers to the United States.
The latest example is still recent: Berlin did not give the go-ahead to the Marder armored vehicles until this January it agreed with President Joe Biden that Washington would send its Bradleys at the same time.
The insistence that other countries also send their tanks - the American Abrams, the British Challengers or the French Leclerc - responds to an attempt to diffuse the risk, to distribute it among other allies.
The chancellor fears that all Leopards, no matter what country they arrive from, will be seen by Moscow as German tanks, and that Putin will see only Germany as part of the war.
Scholz's critics point to another reason that goes beyond concern for security: that the chancellor is thinking about the end of the war, and that relations will have to be restored with what until a year ago was one of the Germany's main trading partners.
The defense minister, Boris Pistorius, recently arrived in office after the resignation of his predecessor, has also not elaborated on the reasons for Scholz's delay.
"It's about weighing the consequences of inaction, but also of action," he said in an interview with public television on Sunday night, visibly uncomfortable with the presenter's insistent questions.
“We have a special responsibility,” she added.
Most analysts take it for granted that Germany will eventually ship the Leopard 2, or at least give permission to countries that are willing to ship them.
The question now is when, and if, countries like Poland will end up losing patience and threatening to move their units across the border, even without German permission.
Pistorius has said the decision will be made "soon".
Warsaw, meanwhile, is raising its tone, saying it is willing to create a "small coalition" without Germany to send the tanks.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced Monday that his country will "soon" formally request permission from Berlin to re-export the tanks.
Despite his threatening rhetoric in recent weeks, he has not yet requested the required authorization.
Two Leopards of the German Army, during NATO military maneuvers in October in Pabrade (Lithuania).Getty Images
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