US political expert Davis on the battle tank debate: "If Putin wins, it will be dangerous"

The governments in Washington DC and Berlin continue to discuss the supply of main battle tanks.

US political expert James Davis sees strong tensions in the interview.

Munich – The dispute over the supply of main battle tanks in the Ukraine war is becoming a test for the traffic light coalition – and apparently also for German-American relations.

Prof. James Davis, political scientist at the University of St. Gallen, was born in the US and lives in Munich.

In an interview with our newspaper, he explains how the United States views Germany's hesitancy, how strong nuclear deterrence is in Europe today - and why Germany these days reminds him of a young adult who just doesn't want to leave home.

Interview with US political expert Davis: "Strong tensions between Washington and Berlin"

The federal government declares that Washington and Berlin are pulling together.

Is that also true when it comes to supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine?

There are currently strong tensions between Washington and Berlin - especially over the issue of tank deliveries.

The talks in the Chancellery with the US Secretary of Defense went badly, at least according to the reports I've heard.

How is the federal government's position on the Leopard shipments evaluated in the US media?

The US newspapers are full of criticism of the German attitude.

The Washington Post wrote that US President Joe Biden must finally assert himself against Olaf Scholz.

There is little sympathy for German hesitation in the US media.

The US government is also reluctant, at least on the issue of supplying Abrams main battle tanks.

Washington justifies this with excessive fuel consumption of the tank and logistical problems.

Are these advanced arguments?

I do not think so.

The Americans have so far spoken honestly about the weapon systems for Ukraine.

For example, they said about the Patriot missile defense system that it cannot be delivered quickly because it requires proper training.

This training is currently in progress, Ukrainian soldiers are practicing on these complex systems in the USA.

Similarly with the Abrams, weapons experts say it's a very complex tank.

It has jet propulsion, similar to a jet plane, and was built for rapid advance during the Cold War.

So it is a tank for offensive in large areas and therefore does not bring to Ukraine what the Leopard-2 could bring now.

It is the Germans who say on the one hand

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A Leopard 2 tank of the Polish army stands on the grounds of the Hohenfels military training area during the international military exercise "Allied Spirit 2022".

© Armin Weigel/dpa

Battle tanks in the war zone?

Germany has "historical responsibility" towards Poland and Ukraine

How dangerous is the escalation through the delivery of main battle tanks?

Will Germany go to war as a result?

Escalation is more likely if Ukraine does not have the necessary weapons to defend itself.

A Russia that incorporates Kyiv and stands on the borders with Poland is more dangerous than one that is stopped in Ukraine.

What is really behind the hesitant attitude of the federal government?

I believe that the SPD has drawn a historical lesson that was too simple: Never again German tanks on Russian soil!

But one forgets that Russia and Germany shared Eastern Europe in 1939.

Germany not only has a historical responsibility towards Russia, but also towards Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine.

One reason for Olaf Scholz's reluctance is that Germany - unlike France or Great Britain - does not have its own nuclear protective umbrella.

What if a Donald Trump becomes US President again and leaves the Germans out in the rain?

There are currently around 35,000 US soldiers on German soil.

This is a very clear sign that the US is living up to its promise to defend Germany.

There is nuclear sharing, there are still tactical US nuclear weapons on German soil: nuclear deterrence is just as strong today as it was ten or 20 years ago.

US expert Davis on Leopard deliveries: Scholz will pay a "significantly higher political price".

How does the Leopard dispute come to Putin?

Are the corks popping in the Kremlin?

Anything that leads to a dispute between Washington and Berlin pleases Putin.

In Germany and the United States, large sections of the population have concerns about military support for Kyiv.

Against this background, how effective are the revelations of corruption in Ukraine?

This long history of corruption in Ukrainian government circles is of course problematic.

However, it must be said again and again that Ukraine's struggle is also our struggle.

A Putin who wins in Ukraine will be an even more threatening figure on the international stage.

It is therefore in our own interest that Ukraine wins.

And it is therefore in our interest that we deliver everything that helps Ukraine in this.

The political leaders in Berlin, but also in Washington, do not make this self-interest of the population clear enough.

In the New York Times, British historian Timothy Garton Ash said: "The German position is extremely confused because the old thinking is dead but a new one has not yet emerged." Is he right?

Since 1990 we've been hearing that Germany needs time to find a new role.

But now we are in 2023!

Germany behaves like these young people who, at the age of 30, still don't want to move out of their parents' homes.

Will Scholz ultimately deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine?

Yes, Scholz will then only have to pay a much higher political price for it than would have been necessary with clever politics.

Interview: Klaus Rimpel

List of rubrics: © Armin Weigel/dpa