Can Hong Kong stocks raise their eyebrows in the Year of the Rabbit? Stock commentators hope to challenge 25,000 points 4 Experts Pai Li Market Stocks｜Attached list

It is the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, and I would like to extend my New Year greetings to the readers, wishing everyone prosperity in the stock market and good health in the new year.

In fact, a complete family and good health are the most important wealth in life. If you have both, life will naturally be easier to feel comfortable.

At the end of last year, the phrase "tiger (suffering) has its sweetness and rabbit (spitting) raises its eyebrows" is passed down among friends from time to time.

This sentence is not only playing with words, but also expresses the aspirations of many people, and I believe investors feel the same.

The first 10 months of the Year of the Tiger have really made investors miserable, so in the new year, can they let go of last year's dark anger and raise their eyebrows?

Based on the opinions of the four experts, most of them believe that Hong Kong stocks will perform better in the Year of the Rabbit, and the first target is 22,500 points.

At the same time, it is also pointed out that the horoscope of the beginning of spring in the Year of the Rabbit belongs to "wood fire", and it is believed that the industry stocks belonging to "wood fire" will perform better during the year.

After 4 Years of the Rabbit, the Hang Seng Index rises and falls 2 times each

Can the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Rabbit jump high and far like a rabbit?

It is still unknown at present, because the market will not open until tomorrow (26th, the fifth day of the Lunar New Year).

Referring to the past 4 Years of the Rabbit, the number of ups and downs of the Hang Seng Index is divided equally, and the trend is indeed like a rabbit, quite lively and active, that is, quite volatile, but it does not necessarily leap forward!

If the market was in an uptrend that year, the increase would be at least 70% (99 years), and the increase in the Year of the Rabbit in 75 would be doubled.

If the market falls, the range will be about 10% (10% in 1987 and 15.9% in the Year of the Rabbit in 2011).

Will Hong Kong stocks rise or fall in the Year of the Rabbit?

Experts believe that Hong Kong stocks can beat the previous year this year, because the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Tiger is too bleak.

In the year of the Renyin Tiger, unfavorable financial market factors followed one after another. First, there was the war between Russia and Ukraine, and then many major central banks in Europe and the United States raised interest rates sharply due to high inflation, which led to tightening of market liquidity. There is a new round of outbreaks, and many regions in the mainland have announced the closure of the city.

As the situation in the mainland property market further deteriorates, the operating conditions of real estate companies are more challenging. Related factors have brought impacts on both the financial market and the real economy, and the Hong Kong stock market has also stepped down as a result.

In October last year, the Hang Seng Index hit a low of 14,597 points in October 2011, the lowest since April 2009. It also dropped 9,205 points or 38.9% from the last trading day of the Year of the Ox.

Under such market conditions, what is it other than "tiger (suffering) is unspeakable"?

Of course, as the mainland adjusted its anti-epidemic policy, it announced the switch to the outside world at the end of the Year of the Tiger, which led to a super rebound in Hong Kong stocks. Based on the closing price of 22,044 points on the last trading day of the Year of the Tiger, the market rebounded from the low level by 7,447 points or more. 51%.

If investors can grasp this wave of rebound, I believe they can recover a lot of lost ground.

With the opening ceremony of the Year of the Rabbit held by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow morning, Hong Kong stocks officially entered the new year.

Judging from the opinions of the four experts, it seems that the market will go further. Lian Jinghan, an investment strategist at Guotai Junan International, predicts that the market will continue to improve throughout the year and may challenge 25,000 points.

Lian Jinghan predicts that the market can challenge 25,000 points

Lian Jinghan predicts that the Hang Seng Index will continue to improve in the Year of the Rabbit.

During the Year of the Tiger, Hong Kong stocks were dragged down by factors such as the epidemic and the economic trend in the Mainland, which resulted in the lackluster performance of the market for two consecutive years.

Although the U.S. economy may experience a recession this year, it is expected to be moderate. Overall, the U.S. stock market is still relatively strong. On the other hand, the mainland economy is recovering, and capital flows into Greater China. Even if the U.S. stock market adjusts, it will have limited impact on Hong Kong stocks as a whole. Excluding this year, the market can climb to 25,000 points this year.

When asked which stocks should be paid attention to, he pointed out that except for shipping stocks, most of the other stocks have room for growth.

Among them, sports goods stocks can benefit from the gradual resumption of large-scale sports activities; he also pointed out that except for Anta (2020), other sports goods stocks such as Xtep (1368) will not rule out related industries as long as they complete the destocking action at the beginning of the year. Stock performance can outperform the market.

Cen Zhiyong predicts that the wood fire industry will perform better

Cen Zhiyong, a strategist at Baihui Securities, may not be suitable for investors to adopt a strategy of only buying and holding the Hang Seng Index throughout the year (January 1 to December 31).

He expects the Hang Seng Index to rise from March to May of the lunar calendar, with more fluctuations in July to August, and more general performance in other months.

Generally speaking, investors can enter the market in spring and make profits in summer, and they can stop in autumn and winter; it does not rule out that the performance of the entire market in the Year of the Rabbit will only be "stand still".

He also pointed out that the trend of the market in 2023 may be similar to that in 2022, and the annual high may be 23,000 points.

Since the horoscope of the Beginning of Spring in the Year of the Rabbit is "wood fire", he expects industries that belong to fire, such as the Internet, metaverse and energy, and industries that belong to wood, such as education, papermaking and agriculture, will perform better this year.

If it is an industry that belongs to water, such as shipping and water resources, the trend of the Year of the Rabbit will be more difficult.

He further pointed out that investors should be more careful about industries that are earth and gold, such as real estate and banking.

Even though the mainland government has loosened control measures on the real estate industry one after another, fundamental factors such as sales have not improved, which is not healthy.

Huang Minshuo is optimistic about medical equipment stocks and retail stocks

Huang Minshuo, director and chief investment officer of PC Securities, expects that Hong Kong stocks will perform better in the Year of the Rabbit than in the Year of the Tiger, and the performance in the first half of the year will be more prominent. This means that the strategy of many investors has changed from "reducing holdings" to "holding holdings". At the same time, the mainland economy is gradually returning to normal, and there is room for improvement in the profits of both old and new economy companies.

He said that the big bank had earlier raised the target of the Hang Seng Index under an optimistic scenario to 27,000 points.

When asked which industries should be paid attention to, he said that service industries such as retail and consumption, as well as industries that can benefit from customs clearance, such as insurance and medical care, can all be paid attention to, especially the medical and nursing industries. Gaining the trust of consumers will benefit after customs clearance. He also expressed his preference for two medical equipment stocks, Xintong (2160) and MicroPort (0853).

For the retail industry, you can pay attention to CDFG (1880), which is not only the industry leader, but also has a national layout.

In terms of new economic industries, he prefers companies engaged in e-commerce such as JD.com (9618) and Ali (9988), and companies engaged in video entertainment such as Kuaishou (1024) and Bilibili (9626). On the contrary, he prefers companies engaged in games With reservations.

Undoubtedly, the approval of the game version number has resumed, but there are still restrictions on the duration of some players.

He also pointed out that there are certain industries that investors should pay attention to, among which the shipping industry is one of them.

Because the hype has been quite strong in the early years, but the industry cycle has not yet picked up, it is expected to be sluggish in the first half of the year, and it is expected to bottom out in the second half of the year.

The mobile phone equipment industry should pay attention to when product demand will recover.

Zhang Zhiwei is optimistic about the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Zhang Zhiwei, director of Prudential Securities, pointed out that Hong Kong stocks have experienced many negative factors in the Year of the Tiger, such as the Russo-Ukraine war and the closure of cities and customs, all of which will appear in 2022. He believes that the worst time is over.

He said with a smile that the year of the tiger is like a year of hardship, but it is expected that "all hardships will be rewarded with happiness". Therefore, it is expected that the market trend in the year of the rabbit will be as lively as a rabbit, jumping up step by step.

His first target price for the market is 22,500 points, which is expected to be reached in the first quarter of this year.

When asked about the market-friendly stocks, he pointed out that since the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0388) has a high degree of correlation with the market trend, he will regard the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as a market-friendly stock to keep up with the overall upward trend.

Fortune for the Year of the Rabbit｜Mai Lingling: The stock market is not bad enough to speculate and make money, and the position is right in the south. The fortune for the Year of the Rabbit｜The "sick star" in the East is not good for home buyers!

Mai Lingling: Aim at two directions in the car