The Wall Street Journal, political news website POLITICO, Der Spiegel and other American and European media successively reported that the US and German governments may announce the supply of US-made M1 tanks (M1 Abrams) and German-made tanks to Ukraine on January 25. The Leopard 2 and other "Main Battle Tanks" (MBTs) that Uzbekistan has been longing for for a long time.
European and American countries seem to have made up their minds to fully support Uzbekistan's planned counteroffensive this year.
The turning point of the main battle tank
At the NATO Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ukraine Defense Contact Group) meeting on January 20, the new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Boris Pistorius) refused to confirm the loss of the "Leopard 2" to Ukraine, which attracted many Europeans. The country is dissatisfied.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki later stated that he would unite with other allies who own the German-made "Leopard 2" and directly re-export the main battle tanks to Ukraine without seeking German permission.
On the other hand, the Green Party, one of the three ruling parties in Germany, which has always "not hesitated" in providing military aid to Ukraine, also sent Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to publicly state that it would not prevent its allies from exporting tanks to Ukraine.
In addition, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), another political party in the coalition, is also a hard-line supporter of Ukraine. Public opinion in Germany is also inclined to export the "Leopard 2" change. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Olaf Scholz) seems to have reached the end Don't bow your head under domestic and foreign pressure.
What worries some leftists in Germany the most is that if the advanced main battle tanks on the Ukrainian battlefield are all "made in Germany", this is too similar to the history of the Nazi German army's invasion of the Soviet Union on the Ukrainian battlefield in World War II.
Therefore, the media rumored that Scholz has been lobbying US President Joe Biden (Joe Biden) behind his back, hoping that the United States can take the lead in supplying M1 tanks, so that Germany can play a supporting role in "following the big brother".
Ukraine has long requested the German-made Leopard tank.
(Wikimedia Commons)
However, the U.S. Department of Defense has always believed that the M1, which uses a jet engine, consumes a lot of fuel and is difficult to maintain, and is not suitable for the Ukrainian battlefield. Instead, the "Leopard 2" with a total of more than 2,000 aircraft in service in more than ten European countries and a diesel engine is even better. It can make the Ukrainian army come in handy quickly.
Therefore, on the 20th, the United States still refused to export M1 tanks to Ukraine at the meeting of Europe and the United States to aid Ukraine and defend against the United States.
Judging from the latest developments, in order to cater to Scholz's "World War II complex", the Biden administration seems to have suppressed the objections of the Ministry of Defense and decided to export M1 to Ukraine, paving the way for the German "Leopard 2" to lose to Ukraine. road.
According to the "Wall Street Journal" report, the United States will export about 30 M1s to Ukraine; while "Der Spiegel" said that Germany will export a team of "Leopard 2" to Ukraine, with a team of about 14. The number of "Challenger 2" (Challenger 2) main battle tanks is the same.
With Germany's "green light", other European countries are expected to quickly follow.
German Chancellor Scholz at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
(Reuters)
Fully equipped Ukrainian combat units
The latest round of European and American military aid to Ukraine is fundamentally different from the previous arms delivery.
During the nearly one-year war in the past, the weapons supplied to Ukraine by Europe and the United States were often only used to meet the specific needs of the battlefield at that time, and there was no overall plan for the construction of Ukrainian combat units.
For example, the Javelin (Javalin) anti-tank missile and the Stinger (Stinger) anti-aircraft missile at the beginning of the war were only used to prevent the Russian Army and Air Force from defeating Ukraine quickly; The 155mm NATO standard howitzer was used to deal with frontline ground artillery battles; later, the US-made "Hippocampus" multiple rocket launcher (HIMARS) increased the attack range of the Ukrainian army, destroyed the Russian artillery advantage, and enabled the Ukrainian army to block the supply of the Russian army's rear In the end, the Ukrainian army successfully recovered the entire territory of Kharkiv and the city of Kherson in the south; until recently, the air defense system represented by the "Patriot" was used to deal with Russia since last year. Missile and drone long-range attacks have been taken since October.
But stepping into 2023, European and American military aid to Ukraine has the intention of equipping complete combat units.
France exported AMX-10RC "light battlefield tank"; Germany exported 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles (Marder); Sweden exported 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles; the United States exported more than 100 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (M2 Bradley, During the Iraq war, it was known as the tank killer), 90 Stryker armored vehicles; different countries also increased the delivery of armored vehicles, howitzers and other weapons in large quantities.
At the same time, the United States also carried out joint arms combat training for the Ukrainian army.
The United States will also increase its production of 155mm ammunition by five times in the next two years, and European countries such as the Czech Republic have also made similar arrangements for increasing production.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently fired high-ranking officials on the grounds of anti-corruption, which seems to be responding to the concerns of European and American countries about the corruption of the Ukrainian government.
(Reuters)
Some military commentators pointed out that even if there were no M1, "Leopard 2" and other main battle tanks, the above-mentioned equipment, combined with the Soviet-made main battle tanks owned by Ukraine itself or supplied by the former Warsaw Pact countries, would be sufficient for two soldiers with 10,000 to 20,000 people. to the needs of the four combined arms regiments.
This time, after Germany and the United States decided to export the "Leopard 2" and M1 main battle tanks, this trend of orderly armed Ukrainian combat units became more obvious.
Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said in December last year that Ukraine needs 300 main battle tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 self-propelled guns to regain Russian-occupied land.
At the time, it seemed that such numbers seemed out of the blue.
But looking back today, a month later, this number is not far from reality.
The determination of Europe and the United States to aid Ukraine can be seen in a small detail: Denmark, which has been trying to build a heavy infantry regiment by 2032 to fulfill its NATO member responsibilities, decided to transfer its 19 Taiwan's legally-made "Caesar" self-propelled artillery (CAESAR) is fully supplied to Ukraine, and there is not one left.
Legal "Caesar" self-propelled gun (CAESAR).
(Wikimedia Commons)
Although the supply of main battle tanks from Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom is still limited according to public information, their supply potential is very impressive.
The U.S. inventory of M1 tanks has reached 3,500, and its Marine Corps has just transferred 450 M1s to the Army. The U.S. M88A1 armored rescue vehicle, which is used to repair tank parts on the battlefield and recover damaged chariots, is only in stock. There are thousands of them.
NATO decided to "quick fight and quick victory"?
Since Russia started the war, Russia has been packaging the Russia-Ukraine war as Russia's war against the West as a whole. Against "the entire Western collective".
In this regard, major countries in Europe and the United States have been trying their best to prevent the Russo-Ukraine War from turning into a "proxy war" between NATO and Russia—or a "half proxy war". To reduce the possibility of war escalation, and at the same time avoid fueling Russia's "NATO threat theory."
As a result, NATO countries’ aid to Ukraine is often done step by step. From the beginning of the war, the United States publicly denied the support for Poland’s Soviet-made military aircraft to aid Ukraine. Today, the United States still refuses to export long-range weapons of hundreds of kilometers. This can also be seen.
However, after nearly a year of war, European and American countries do not see any possibility that Russia and Ukraine can cease the war.
Under the premise that "Russia cannot win" and "Russia and Ukraine cannot make peace", the camp of "quick battle and quick victory" seems to be gaining the upper hand—the best way to reach peace is to help Ukraine defeat Russia as soon as possible.
Needless to say, this strategy is very risky. In addition to the issue of nuclear war, the West also faces the reputational risk of being defeated by the Russian army on the Ukrainian battlefield.
However, judging from the nature of this latest wave of military aid, "quick war and quick victory" has become the mainstream view of NATO countries, and they no longer care about the accusation of "proxy war" for this reason.
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