The obsession, the central objective, is to win the province of Buenos Aires.
Cristina and Máximo Kirchner cling to that logic when they imagine their political future as of December.
That is why they commissioned a
new survey
in the district, with data
on voting intentions
.
And
Clarín
agreed to that study that, obviously, has already passed through the offices of the vice president and the former head of the bloc of deputies.
This is a survey by
Analogías
, the firm that officially measured in 2017 for the "Cristina senadora" campaign and became the favorite consultant of the Instituto Patria.
"Between January 17 and 19, we carried out a study of provincial scope in Buenos Aires territory with the objective of relieving political opinions, the evaluation of government efforts, economic expectations and the electoral scenario," the report explains at the outset.
There were
2,467 Buenos Aires cases
, with +/- 2% margin of error.
The last survey of Analogies in the Province.
electoral data.
Regarding the electoral scenario,
the Frente de Todos appears above
, with a considerable gap over Together for Change, which would be almost in a technical tie with the libertarians.
But all with numbers below 35% and a high number of undecideds,
which poses a fight that is still open.
"Which space do you think you would support in this year's general elections?", the survey specifically asks the people of Buenos Aires. And 33.6% choose the Front of All, 19.4% Together for Change, 16.6% to the "right of Espert and Milei" and 5% to the Front of the Left.
They complete 6.7% of "blank" and 18.8% of "don't know".
When the results are discriminated by different groups, a surprising piece of information: the "right of Milei and Espert" wins among young people between 16 and 29 years of age, with 27.3%.
Pass bills and disenchanted
The study also shows the division by political segmentation, between the ruling party and the opposition.
And he concludes that the Frente de Todos is better than after the 2021 legislature, but still far from its best performance:
"The
support base of the Frente de Todos
in its
National and Provincial versions
orbits around
45 provincial points
, 3 points above the level it had at the time of the PASO 2021 elections. It should be noted that in the period prior to those PASO elections support for the official coalition in the Province fell from almost 52 points in November 2020 to 42 in October 2021".
The last survey of Analogies in the Province.
How is the image of Alberto Fernández.
Then, in a clear internal message, he
blames the loss of purchasing power
as the central factor in the disenchantment of public opinion with the Government.
Without mentioning him by name and surname, he points to the former Minister of Labor Claudio Moroni.
"At the end of 2020, the post-pandemic recovery profile began to be discussed within the ruling coalition. On the one hand,
the warning from Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner regarding the distribution of growth was recorded
. On the other, the Ministry of Labor it set a pattern of parity negotiation that was ultimately equivalent to two thirds of the annual inflation of 2021. As a result, the real salary deteriorated during the recovery process in 2021, "he starts.
The last survey of Analogies in the Province.
How is the image of Axel Kicillof.
And he continues: "Although a determinism between support for the ruling party and the salary level does not operate linearly, there is a strong relationship and a difference with respect to the end of 2021 in which all of the referents of the Frente de Todos already recognize that it persists and/or the salary depression worsens with the need to solve it. At that time, and in open collision with the data,
the Ministry of Labor stated that there was a recovery of real wages
. A problem that existed could hardly be solved, but was not recognized."
The last survey of Analogies in the Province.
Pessimism with purchasing power.
Later, he
talks about recovering that moderate pro-government voter
: "The impact of the 2021 electoral result weakened the government coalition along the entire line, without there being a symmetrical expansion of the first opposition space as a counterpart. There was a withdrawal of the sectors moderates towards expectant and observation positions. We refer to the segments that we classify as Moderate Officialism, a range that in the case of the Province of Buenos Aires fluctuates between 15 and 20 provincial points that are generally Peronist voters".
look too
New electoral poll: without Cristina Kirchner, the most voted is Javier Milei and the internal ones burn
Corruption and elections: the report of a government pollster with very hard data for Cristina Kirchner