The freeze on security coordination announced today (Thursday) by the chairman of the Palestinian Authority is bad news for Israel. It could manifest itself in an increase in the scope of terrorism and oblige the IDF to engage larger forces in the near future.
Earlier today, an additional battalion was sent to the sector, following the operation of the IMM and Shin Bet in the Jenin refugee camp, in which nine Palestinians were killed.
The IDF made it clear that this is a one-off and temporary reinforcement, but if the cessation of coordination goes from statements to actions, more intensive activity on the ground will be required to cover up various actions carried out so far by the Palestinian security mechanisms - from the arrest of "soft" wanted persons, to the curbing of various civil actions, Such as demonstrations, which may develop into clashes with IDF forces.
Abu Mazen.
It will require an activity that until now has been backed up by the PA's mechanisms, photo: Reuters
In the past, Abu Mazen threatened many times to cancel the security coordination, but did so only once, after the declaration of the "deal of the century" by President Trump, which included American consent to the annexation of part of the West Bank territories by Israel. The freeze then lasted for several months, during which it was necessary Israel to intensify its activity in Yash.
The Palestinians agreed to return to the security coordination, among other things, out of fear that Hamas would take advantage of the created vacuum and strengthen in the West Bank.
It is likely that they will do so even now, with the understanding that the coordination serves the security and interests of both parties.
Abu Mazen's move stems from the fact that the Palestinian Authority is under severe internal criticism in view of the intense Israeli activity, which has claimed approximately 30 lives since the beginning of the month (following the approximately 150 Palestinian deaths last year).
The IDF does try to reduce the number of casualties as much as possible, but they are often required to act aggressively in the face of live fire resistance from the wanted, especially in northern Samaria.
Non-stop exchange of fire: documentation from the activity in Jenin // Photo: IDF spokesman
This was the case today in Jenin.
The target was valuable - an armed cell of the Islamic Jihad that had already carried out several attacks in the area and was planning to carry out additional attacks - although the fact that the activity was carried out in broad daylight, when the refugee camp was in full operation, certainly contributed to the strength of the resistance and the extent of casualties.
It is doubtful whether in the situation that developed in the field, this result could have been avoided.
However, it is requested that the security system examine in the internal investigations it will carry out, whether it was possible to plan the activity in a different manner or timing, so that the number of casualties would be smaller, with the understanding that a high casualty rate leads to unrest in the field and increases the risk of additional attacks and escalation.
The Islamic Jihad has already threatened to retaliate for the harm to its people.
In recent months, the organization has been putting a special effort into recruiting activists and carrying out terrorist attacks, directed and financed by Iranians.
However, he is now under heavy pressure to respond both from his field operatives and from the organization's leadership in Damascus.
The riots in Jenin, photo: AFP
The exchange of fire in Jenin.
The fact that the activity was carried out in broad daylight - contributed to the resistance of the residents, photo: AFP
The organization's immediate dilemma is whether to respond only with attacks in the West Bank, or also by firing rockets from Gaza. Last year, Islamic Jihad sought to tie the two sectors together, leading to the "Dawn" operation in which the organization's military commanders were eliminated in the Gaza Strip.
A similar dilemma is facing them even now, and the IDF has prepared for it, among other things, by reinforcing the Iron Dome batteries in the south. At the same time, diplomatic talks were also held today with the US, Egypt and Jordan, with the aim of calming the spirits and making it clear that firing from Gaza will be met with a harsh Israeli response.
However, even if the current event ends without escalation in the South or Samaria, the reality on the ground does not bode well.
In the past year, there has been a continuous increase in violence in the Palestinian Territories, which may worsen in the run-up to Ramadan this coming March. This requires Israel to tighten its security-political activities vis-à-vis all the parties in the Palestinian arena - not an easy task considering the composition and plans of the new government.
Iron Dome in the "Dawn" operation.
Another round is coming?, Photo: IDF spokesman
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