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Russo-Ukraine War|American tanks are "covering the eyes" Will the next step be the F-16?

2023-01-26T10:52:32.691Z


As previously expected by the European and American media, German President Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden announced on January 25 that they would export their respective main battle tanks (MBT) to Ukraine.


As previously expected by the European and American media, German President Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden announced on January 25 that they would export their respective main battle tanks (MBT) to Ukraine, further reversing the "arms export to Ukraine". The original stance of putting defense first.

Scholz, who hesitated for a long time before making a decision, emphasized that his supply of the German-made "Leopard 2" (Leopard 2) was not an act of Germany alone, but the result of "close cooperation" with its allies, pointing to Biden's export of 31 American-made M1 tanks on the same day (M1 Abrams) decision.


Since the "Leopard 2" is in service in as many as 13 NATO countries, with a total of more than 2,300, Germany will not only take the lead in providing 14 more advanced "Leopard 2A6", but will also allow other countries to export their "Leopard 2" to Ukraine.

At present, Poland, Norway, and Portugal are expected to provide 14, 8, and 4 different models of "Leopard 2" respectively. Finland and Spain have already indicated their intention to supply this tank, and the Netherlands will export the tanks they leased from Germany. 18 "Leopard 2".

Overall, according to German officials, Germany's goal is to form two battalions of "Leopard 2" tanks with its allies as soon as possible, which is equivalent to more than 80 tanks, and the relevant training of Ukrainian soldiers will start soon.

New Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the aim was to deliver the tanks to Ukraine within three to four months.

Compared with the "Leopard 2", the 31 M1s in the United States are likely to stay on paper within this year and fail to be sent to the battlefield.

Even if Biden categorically denies it, his decision to lose the M1 to Ukraine seems to be just a political calculation for Scholz to agree to export main battle tanks "with the brigade".

In 2011, the Iraqi army demonstrated its M1 tank.

(Wikimedia Commons)

American M1 "drunkards don't want to drink"?

In fact, a week before Biden announced this decision, when European countries were pressuring Germany to export the "Leopard 2", the US Department of Defense has been publicly denying the practice of "M1 losing to Ukraine".

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl stated categorically at the time that "we should not supply the Ukrainians with a system that they cannot repair, cannot maintain, and cannot afford in the long run."

The M1 uses a jet engine, and it is estimated that its fuel consumption is nearly 50% higher than that of the "Leopard 2" in use on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Unlike the diesel engine of the "Leopard 2", the M1 engine uses aviation kerosene. Therefore, "M1 lost to Ukraine" may increase the complexity of the Ukrainian army's supply, making "help" become "a disservice".

Moreover, the maintenance of the jet engine is also more difficult. Even the supporters of "M1 lost to Ukraine" can only say that Poland next to Ukraine is also buying M1 anyway. Therefore, the use of M1 on the Ukrainian battlefield can help Poland build its M1 maintenance. Ability.

To send the M1 to the Ukrainian battlefield, the U.S. must provide additional equipment like the M88 armored rescue vehicle at the same time as the supply commitment at the moment to help the Ukrainian army repair or recover tanks on the battlefield. The large off-road oil tanker used to support the new fuel supply demand on the battlefield.

German Chancellor Scholz inspects a Bundeswehr base in Bergen and speaks in front of a Leopard 2 main battle tank.

According to the analysis, many Germans tend to believe that the policy of developing energy trade relations between West Germany and the Soviet Union was the main reason for the end of the Cold War. Therefore, even today, Scholz still has a tendency to disagree with Russia.

(Reuters)

Unlike the "Leopard 2" which is widely used on the European continent, its maintenance capabilities and related parts are not only sufficient but also have multiple sources, the main countries using M1 are Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and other countries with M1 in service include Kuwait, Morocco, Iraq, Australia, etc., are not European countries.

It became especially difficult to establish a reliable supply line to the M1 in Europe.

The route for European and American countries to export weapons to Ukraine has always been a real problem in aiding Ukraine. During the process, it may become the target of Russian attacks. If non-Ukrainian personnel are used to transport them, it is more likely to cause deaths of personnel from NATO countries and complicate the nature of the war.

Unlike man-portable weapons such as the Javelin anti-tank missile, heavy armor such as tanks can basically only be transported by rail or ship.

If these weapons are not on the European continent, the logistics behind them will be more cumbersome.

Moreover, according to military analysis, the armor of the M1 uses "depleted uranium" (depleted uranium), which is regarded as a US defense secret and cannot be exported to other countries at will.

According to the rules for the use of this "special armor", when the inner layer of the armor is exposed due to an attack or other reasons, it needs to be covered up immediately by inspected personnel, and maintenance operations are initiated, or the armor is transferred to the maintenance facility.

In fact, the M1 exported by the United States to other countries has not used this special armor.

In other words, if the U.S. M1 is to be supplied to Ukraine, it may not be "in stock", and new ones must be produced or old ones must be modified.

After seeing the many obstacles in the "M1 loss to Ukraine", anyone with a discerning eye knows that Biden's proposal to supply Ukraine with 31 M1 tanks in spite of the objections of the Ministry of Defense is purely a political "blindfold" to give German Chancellor Scholz a reason Export "Leopard 2" to Ukraine.

The biggest practical impact of "M1 losing to Ukraine" is that "Leopard 2" will appear on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The British Ministry of Defense tweeted photos of the British-made "Challenger 2" (Challenger 2) main battle tank and the "Leopard 2" that the UK decided to lose to Ukraine.

France is also currently considering supplying Ukraine with legal-made Leclerc main battle tanks.

(Twitter @DefenceHQ)

NATO decided to "quick fight and quick victory"?

The Leopard 2 is slightly better than the M1 in terms of speed and cannon range, its armor may be weaker, but it still outperforms the soviet tank designs in use in Ukraine and even Russia at the moment, with blast doors between the tank operator and the ammunition , reducing the risk of a devastating explosion caused by an opponent attacking from above.

At the same time, NATO standard tanks like the "Leopard 2" have a higher cannon stability than Soviet tanks, which helps to improve the accuracy of firing while walking.

Although the initial supply of "Leopard 2" at the moment is not as high as the figure of 300 main battle tanks proposed by Ukraine earlier, there is no shortage of "Leopard 2" in Europe.

Some analysts even pointed out that German military enterprises actually still have machines capable of producing one Leopard 2 per day.

In fact, it is not difficult to increase the supply in the future.

At the same time, according to the assessment of the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), if Ukraine has 100 "Leopard 2", it is enough to have an impact on the battlefield.

Of course, how much the supply of "Leopard 2" will help the Ukrainian army also depends on its future ability to combine arms operations.

At this moment, the U.S. military is providing targeted training to Ukrainian military personnel on its German base.

Although the "M1 tank" loss to Ukraine is just a blindfold, NATO as a whole has taken the action of "main battle tank loss to Ukraine", which has actually demonstrated its determination to help Ukraine start a "quick win" counterattack this year.

According to the analysis of the Institute of War Studies (ISW), a think tank in Washington DC, the Russian army, which has just changed its commander in chief against Ukraine, may give up the fight for Bakhmut, Donetsk and start in Lugansk instead. A new round of offensive against Ukraine.

The picture shows the deployment of Russian troops in Lugansk.

(Reuters)

The sound of "F-16 Losing Ukraine" reappeared

In addition to main battle tanks, Ukraine has been asking the West to provide fourth-generation fighter jets like the F-16.

After Germany and the United States announced their decision to export main battle tanks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg respectively. ) and Polish Foreign Minister Rau (Zbigniew Rau) talked about the issue of the export of fighter jets to Ukraine.

Recently, the discussion of "F-16 losing to Ukraine" has indeed begun to appear in the newspapers one after another, which has the momentum of "tank losing to Ukraine" from the previous one or two months.

Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra first said last week that he was "open" to supplying Ukraine with F-16s, before Prime Minister Mark Rutte clarified there was no such plan.

(The Netherlands is currently replacing its fleet of F-16s with F-35s.)

This week, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force also told the Ukrainian media that some Ukrainian pilots have gone to the United States, the funds for training pilots have been allocated, and the types of aircraft that may be supplied to Ukraine and related training terms have been decided.

He estimated that the training process could take six months.

However, the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force respectively stated that there is no relevant information released, and they are not aware of any Ukrainian pilots who are training in the United States.

On January 25, some British media quoted the chief operating officer of F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin as saying that the company would increase production.

An American F-16 fighter jet participating in multinational exercises in Brazil in 2018.

(Reuters)

Although German Chancellor Scholz announced the "Leopard 2 loss to Ukraine" on the 25th, he clearly stated that Germany will not export fighter jets to Ukraine, but Germany is not a country that uses F-16s.

Is "F-16 lost to Ukraine" the next step for Europe and the United States?

Judging from the track record of the Russia-Ukraine war that started nearly a year ago, there are too many examples of European and American weapons losing to Ukraine from "no" to "yes"—after all, the loss of NATO's main battle tanks to Ukraine half a year ago was still a fantasy.

Although the United States rejected Poland's proposal to send MiG-29 (MiG-29) Soviet fighters to Ukraine at the beginning of the war, and the United States would replace them with F-16s, the position of the Biden administration may have changed today.

Similarly, as the sophistication of weapons exported to Ukraine from Europe and the United States increases, new equipment such as the Patriot air defense missile system to Ukraine also requires longer training before it can be put into use.

Early preparations for the "F-16 Lost to Ukraine" will indeed allow European and American countries to influence the Russian-Ukrainian war situation more quickly and flexibly in the future.

It is still unclear whether European and American countries will step on the red line of the past, like a main battle tank losing to Ukraine.

But what is certain is that "F-16 lost to Ukraine" is no longer beyond the scope of people's imagination.

Ukraine's next goal after acquiring the tanks: American F-16 fighter jets, the United States and Germany successively announced the supply of Ukrainian main battle tanks.

Germany will provide Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks Russia denounces: increased tension

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2023-01-26

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