It is presumed that the study was commissioned primarily to assess the inmate herself.
But one of the strongest data came from the sidewalk across the street.
A
new survey
that Clarín accessed,
requested from Together for Change
, showed
Cristina Kirchner
with a consolidated floor of votes.
So much so that she finished
first in several frames
of the poll.
The survey is from
Solmoirago
, a firm that has been measuring radicals from different parts of the country for some time and also has clients in the PRO.
Between January 11 and 17, he conducted 2,200 interviews throughout the country and presented the results with +/- 2.09% margin of error.
But in addition to the electoral field, the report details some current data and images of the main leaders of the ruling party and opposition:
- "
Main problems
: Argentines consider that the main problems facing the country are inflation and the economy. Corruption, government and justice follow in the ranking of problems. As in previous months, it is inflation the question to be resolved by the national government".
- "
Image of leaders and credibility
: 69.6% of those surveyed consider the management of the national government as bad or very bad. This perception is transferred to the main leaders of the ruling party, since all of them have a negative image differential, with Máximo Kirchner in the lead with a net differential of -47.5 points.
- "It should be noted that in recent months, there has been a
recovery in terms of the positive image of the government
headed by Alberto Fernández, taking into account that in the month of October it had only 18% approval."
- "
Mauricio Macri presents the greatest negative image
among the
opposition leaders
, with 54.7%. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is the leader with the greatest positive image (50.4%), followed by Patricia Bullrich (46.3%) ".
Cristina, with the highest floor
As for the electoral measurements, Solmoirago initially consults for the potentiality of the vote, which is known as
the floors and ceilings of the candidates
.
He puts it like this: "From the following list of political leaders, how likely is it that I could get to vote for him/her if he/she presented himself as a candidate for President of the Nation in 2023?".
And the one with the highest secure vote is Cristina, with 24.2%. Patricia Bullrich, another leader who usually has consolidated support, also repeats good numbers in this item. Here her floor is 21.5%.
But what is
striking
is who intercedes between the two.
Mauricio Macri is second with 22.8%
.
Although he is also a reference with hard support, he does not appear in other studios with such a high floor.
Another
interesting sure vote
for president is
Axel Kicillof, with 16.1%
.
Is that why a sector of Buenos Aires Kirchnerism and Peronism proposes it for the national fight if Cristina definitely gets off?
Or do they push him because they want him not to run for re-election as governor and thus keep her place?
But both the provincial president and the former president, and actually
all the pro-government referents, have the problem of their very high rejection
.
Alberto Fernández leads with 63.3% of "I would never vote for him" and is followed by Kicillof with 62%, Cristina with 59.7% and Massa with 58.4%.
As for the
ceiling
, which adds the safe vote plus the probable vote,
the best is Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
.
With a relatively low floor (12.3%), the head of government adds a lot "could vote for him" (35.2%) and thus reaches a potential/ceiling of
47.5%
.
STEP scenarios, with Cristina and Macri, and without Cristina and Macri
The study then evaluates
two STEP scenarios
.
One with Cristina and Macri, and another without them.
In both cases, in the sum total, Together for Change quite clearly prevails and the libertarians come in an interesting third place.
In scenario 1, the former president is the most voted, with 17.1%, followed by Javier Milei (15.6%), Larreta (14.2%) and Macri (13.7%).
v1.7 0421
Intention to vote for the PASO with Cristina
Based on a national survey of 2,200 cases
SPACE
Source:
Solmoirago
Infographic:
Clarín
Regarding the
totals of the coalitions
,
JxC leads with 41.1%
(9.9% from Bullrich, 2% from Gerardo Morales and 1.7% from Facundo Manes are added).
The Frente de Todos reaches 29.3%
(in addition to the deputy, 4.8% of Kicillof, 3.7% of Massa and 3.6% of Alberto F. are added).
The libertarians remain at 18.1%
(15.6% for Milei and the rest for José Luis Espert).
v1.7 0421
Intention to vote for the PASO without Cristina or Macri
Based on a national survey of 2,200 cases
SPACE
Source:
Solmoirago
Infographic:
Clarín
In
scenario 2
, without Cristina or Macri,
Milei leads with 19.5%
, followed by Larreta (18.2%) and Bullrich (15.8%).
In the sum per space,
Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) drops a little (37.3%)
, the
Frente de Todos
hardly moves
(29.1%)
and the
libertarians
go up a little
(19.5%)
.
look also
What does the latest survey that came to Cristina Kirchner say with key data on the election in the Province
With his criticism, the Pope hits two of his enemies of the Government: an old one and a new one
