Here is a consistent pattern (correlation) in Israel-Jordan relations, which has been repeating itself for many years. The public in Israel is not always aware of it: Jordanian troubles at home give rise to an escalation in rhetoric and in Jordanian demands from Israel on the explosive issue of the Temple Mount. The mountain and its mosques - and not for the first time - are the refuge of the king, who this week hosted Prime Minister Netanyahu in his palace.
Now we are in another such round.
The worsening economic distress in Jordan, the protest against the royal house there and the strikes and riots in the south of the kingdom (where Jordanian policemen were also killed in an exchange of fire), are exacerbating the Jordanian conduct regarding the Temple Mount issue.
In recent weeks, the growing internal criticism from home and the undermining of the royal family's traditional support base among the Bedouin tribes have led to raising the bar for Jordanian demands from Israel in the mountain.
The incident of the Jordanian ambassador, who was (accidentally) detained last week at the gates of the mountain, is a small part of a much broader picture.
For years, the Jordanian status in the Mount and in Al-Aqsa has been perceived by the Jordanian royal family as a central religious and historical anchor for the stability of the government and its legitimacy.
Both Israel and the US recognize this. Jordan and the stability of its regime are critical to Israel and the US due to the whole, usually unknown, security, intelligence and economic cooperation we have woven with it.
The visit to Israel by the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, about a week ago, we find out here, also dealt with the internal situation in Jordan and the Temple Mount issue, and not only the Iran and Saudi issue. Sullivan met with Netanyahu, Herzog, Gallant and Foreign Minister Cohen and talked about the common interests between the countries. He asked that Israel help Jordan. The meeting between Netanyahu and King Abdullah last Tuesday is part of this process, which already began during Defense Minister Galant's visit to Abdullah over two weeks ago. At the meeting this week, the Prime Minister promised the King to preserve the status quo and the status of the Waqf on the Temple Mount.
These promises were given after the Jordanians asked Israel, and not for the first time, to moderate Jewish visibility on the Temple Mount and stop the silent prayers of Jews in the east of the Mount.
But this time Jordan was not satisfied with that.
Now a new-old Jordanian request is placed on the table, to authorize the kingdom to erect a fifth minaret on the Temple Mount, on its eastern wall.
Facing the troubles at home, Jordan is almost desperately looking for a resounding achievement "outside", on the Temple Mount.
There are currently four towers on the mountain, all of which were built in the Mamluk period: the chain tower built by the Mamluk emir Tankhuz;
Madrasa Fakhria tower built by the Mamluks in 1345, as a square tower with three floors;
Al Ruanma Tower in the northwestern corner of the Temple Mount, a four-story tower built at the end of the Mamluk period;
And the Shaar Shavatim tower, a round conical tower, the only one on the northern wall.
Jordan wants to build a fifth minaret to officially establish and perpetuate its position on the mountain (which is also enshrined in its peace treaty with Israel).
The last time Jordan managed to buy itself a similar symbolic influence was in the 80s of the last century, when King Abdullah's father, King Hussein, sold to the ruler of Oman, Sultan Qaboos, an expensive mansion he owned near London, and the proceeds, amounting to 8 million dollars, he transferred to the endowment in Jerusalem to replace the gold in the Dome of the Rock.
The day the dome's renovations were completed became a national holiday in Jordan, and the citizens celebrated in the streets.
Jordan would like to recreate those celebrations through the fifth minaret, especially after Turkey - one of its competitors for the Muslim hegemony on the mountain, financed the replacement of the golden crescent at the top of the Dome of the Rock several years ago;
The same dome, which Hussein renovated at the time.
But the sixth Netanyahu government is in this matter between a rock and a hard place.
On the one hand - its existence depends on Ben Gabir and his party, who want to deepen the Jewish grip and visibility on the mountain and expand the Jewish prayers there.
On the other hand - the special relations with Jordan and the Jordanian requests regarding Mt.
A long and complicated boundary line
For Israel, as mentioned, Jordan is a strategic, regional and security asset.
The peace with Jordan relieved Israel of the need to maintain a long and complicated border line, relatively close to its population centers.
Only a little of the Israeli-Jordanian cooperation along this border has been revealed to date.
If Jordan collapses, Israel could find itself in a dangerous reality on its eastern border and find itself dealing with irregular pro-ISIS militias or those identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
According to foreign publications, there is close cooperation at the security and intelligence level between the two countries, and both sides benefit from their cooperation.
More than once in the past, according to foreign publications, Israel has bothered to warn Jordan about subversive elements that endanger the stability of the Hashemite regime.
The composition of the Israeli delegation for this week's conversation with King Abdullah - the delegation also included the Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, the head of the Shin Bet, the head of the National Security Council and Netanyahu's military secretary - indicates the continuation of the discourse in these areas.
The Israeli ambassador during his visit to the Temple Mount,
In a statement published by the Prime Minister's Office after the meeting, it was stated that "the two leaders discussed regional issues with an emphasis on the strategic, security and economic cooperation between the two countries, which contributes to the stability of the region."
The USA also has direct interests in Jordan. According to foreign publications, in the recent past the Americans sent military advisers to Jordan to prepare the Jordanians for the possibility that the Assad regime in Syria would fall. The American magazine "Atlantic" published that the Israeli Mossad requested permission to bomb chemical weapons sites in Syria from within Jordan. It is also known that the Jordanian army conducted maneuvers in cooperation with France, Great Britain and the United States.
Even the possibility that Jordan would allow Israeli planes to pass through its territory to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran came up in the foreign media discourse.
"Newsweek", for example, published possible attack scenarios on its website, in which such a possibility was examined.
Israel is required to moderate the Temple Mount not only by Jordan.
In the last few weeks, it became clear to Netanyahu's people again that the Israeli attempt to upgrade the relationship with Saudi Arabia and establish open diplomatic relations with it also meets the issue of the Temple Mount.
The Saudis have made it clear to Israel and the US that when the time comes, Israel will be required, among other things, to see to it that the current situation on the mountain is frozen, and that the Jewish prayers there will remain in the shadows and reduced. Saudi Arabia, Israeli officials heard, may have come to terms with Jordanian hegemony and guardianship of Al-Aqsa, but cannot grant Legitimacy for the growing Jewish visibility there, in visits and prayers.
Until a few years ago, Jordan and Saudi Arabia competed for Muslim hegemony on the Temple Mount.
Former President Trump's "Plan of the Century" and the possibility of Saudi Arabia gaining a foothold on the Temple Mount threatened Jordan.
Prolonged efforts were required on the part of the US and Israel to reassure King Abdullah and assure him that Jordan's special status on the Mount would not be compromised. Jordan, it should be known, sees the special status and influence granted to it on the Temple Mount as a result not only of shared interests with Israel, and not only as a guarantee of stability The rule in the Hashemite kingdom, but also a derivative of historical rights: the Hashemite dynasty lost to the Saudis after the First World War the role of "guardian of the holy places for Islam" in Mecca and Medina, and took solace in the secondary guardianship of the holy places for Islam in Jerusalem.
Hussein bin Ali, who served as the sheriff and emir of Mecca, is a descendant of the Hashemite dynasty - whose ancestors consider themselves descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.
He died in 1931 and was buried on the Temple Mount.
His second son, Abdullah, succeeded him and became the first king of the kingdom, upon its establishment in 1946.
Abdullah I held talks with the heads of the Jewish community in Israel, and then with the Israeli government, about achieving a peace settlement.
He was assassinated in the midst of these negotiations, on July 20, 1951, in the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount.
His grandson Hussein, who succeeded him after a short time, was an eyewitness to the murder.
The assassin was one of the men of the Grand Mufti, Haj Amin al-Husseini.
A signed agreement with Abu Mazen
Until the Six Day War, Jordan ruled Judea and Samaria, Jerusalem and the Temple Mount.
It continued to hold Muslim guardianship over the mountain (alongside Israeli sovereignty) even after 1967, and after its announcement of disengagement from the West Bank in 1988.
In its peace agreement with Israel in 1994, this guardianship was given official status and it was stipulated that "Israel respects the existing special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in Muslim holy places in Jerusalem", and that "when negotiations are held on permanent status, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian role the history in these holy places".
The special relationship with Jordan has made it over the years Israel's silent partner in the management of the Temple Mount.
This is how the restoration of the Southern Wall and the Eastern Wall of the mountain, whose stability was undermined about 20 years ago, was handed over to Jordan.
This is how Israel acceded to Jordan's demand not to replace the temporary Mughal Bridge, which was placed at the entrance of the Mughal Gate - the only non-Muslim entry gate to the Temple Mount, and thus Israel shows consideration for Jordan's position in many other matters related to order, and even internal security, on the Mount and around the Mount.
In recent years, the Israeli-Jordanian partnership in matters of the mountain has given rise to negotiations regarding the possibility that the cotton and chain gates will be re-used for the entrance of tourists to the mountain, in addition to the Mughal Gate, as was customary after the Six Day War.
This possibility was torpedoed in the riots that took place in 2014, but in recent years, we discover here, it is again on the agenda.
The Waqf, as an arm of the Jordanian Ministry of Endowments, has a financial interest in this.
This is also desirable for Israel, in order to ease the congestion at the Mughreb gate and in the distant future perhaps allow Jews to enter the mountain, again, as was the case in the past, not only through the Mughreb gate but also through the chain and cotton gates.
King Abdullah is currently working in coordination with Abu Mazen and the Palestinian Authority in regards to the Temple Mount. Abdullah has a signed agreement with Abu Mazen from 2013, in which the Palestinians actually agree that Jordan will represent their interests on the Temple Mount and in Jerusalem, "until a Palestinian state is established with Jerusalem as its capital." .
Today, this agreement has products, which Israel is not always happy with, to say the least: Jordan is demanding today to increase the number of Waqf workers and guards on the Temple Mount to more than 1,000 people.
(Today there are only a few hundred, PS) and also to grant them more powers, including the authority to intervene in case of disturbances. In the eyes of Jordan, the Jordanian waqf should operate on the Temple Mount, somewhat similar to the way the Vatican operates in Rome vis-à-vis the Italian government. Israel rejects this , as it is currently also rejecting the request regarding the fifth minaret. The Vatican is a sovereign state, while Israel is the sovereign on the Temple Mount. Israel also insists on approving in advance the names of the new waqf workers and only a few dozen, and certainly not hundreds.
A few weeks ago, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority launched a new waqf in Rabat Ammon - the Mustafa Endowment for the signing of the Koran. Azzam Al-Khatib, the general director of the waqf, revealed that the goal of the project is to be present in the Mount Medi in every thousand women and men who will participate in Koran reading circles on the Temple Mount, as a counterweight to the growing Jewish presence there.
"Ready to be martyrs"
In Israel, they fear that the new formation will take the place of the previous formation, which took years to dismantle and remove from the Temple Mount - the formation of the Morabitat and Morabiton people, which was operated by the northern faction of the Israeli Islamic movement on the mountain.
Israel outlawed these two organizations, after their activists, who enjoyed a fixed daily salary, harassed and attacked Jews.
Their stated purpose was to disrupt and block Jewish visits to the mountain.
They even stirred up the spirits there more than once and caused riots.
The goal of "Wakf Mustafa", fears in Israel, is similar.
The matter has already come up in talks with Jordanian officials.
Another way that the Jordanian waqf has found to increase the Muslim presence on the mountain is to transfer the drafting of marriage contracts, which have been held for years in the Sharia court on Salah al-Din Street, to the waqf at Al-Aqsa Mosque.
The Waqf also encourages foreign tourism to the Temple Mount from countries such as Turkey and Indonesia, although visits by non-Palestinian Muslims to "occupied" Jerusalem and "captive Al-Aqsa" are subject to halachic Muslim controversy, and there are religious scholars who rule out such visits, fearing that they would be interpreted as a recognition of Israeli sovereignty there.
And if that's not enough - in recent months there have been very harsh statements by members of the Jordanian parliament about Israel and its position in Jerusalem and the Temple Mount.
Although the speakers do not represent the Jordanian royal house, the fact that Jordan allows this "letting off steam" indicates the need for the regime in Jordan to externalize the Temple Mount issue, even if in such an extreme way.
Several members of parliament called for the severance of relations with Israel and the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Jordan.
Some demanded to open the border and allow jihad against Israel, while expressing a willingness to be martyrs.
They even called for allowing the smuggling of weapons to the terrorist organizations in Israel - "Gov Aryot" and the Az ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
This is, for example, the words of Member of Parliament Yanel Frihat, who spoke sympathetically and warmly about the members of the northern faction of the Islamic movement in Israel and its leader Raad Salah, and about the faction's daughter movements, the Morabiton and the Morabitat.
Frihat also addressed the "monkeys and pigs" (a nickname for the Jews in Islam) and clarified that they "need to know that the response from the Jordanian and Palestinian people may now be only words, but the words are like a volcano, and the response will come with the help of bullets."
Perikhat is not alone.
Member of Parliament Khalil Atia also took part in Israel.
He called the Minister of National Security, Ben Gvir, a "pig" and a "coward" and asked to remind him that "Jordan has a border with Palestine of more than 300 km.
This is a time bomb," he clarified, "that will explode in your face and those like you.
You and your ilk only understand the language of resistance and fighting... Jerusalem is a red line, and we are ready to defend it with blood and spirit." Another member of parliament, Suleiman Abu Yaya, declared that "a day will come when we will 'wash' Tel Aviv.
This is a promise from Allah." His colleague, Muhammad al-Shatwani, said that the Jews are one of the most cowardly nations in the world and as soon as they see the Jordanian determination, they will flee to their forests. "We will sacrifice our lives for Jerusalem and its sanctuaries... We are ready to be martyrs and be the first to use sticks, bombs And in guns" (translations courtesy of Mari).
Against this complex background, Israel is trying to achieve cooperation with Jordan in the mountain, in preparation for the holy month of Ramadan.
This issue also came up in the Netanyahu-Abdullah meeting this week.
Last year, Jordan prevented the nightly entrenchment (the "Attaqaf") inside the al-Aqsa Mosque during some of the days of Ramadan, and succeeded in partially neutralizing extremist elements who were planning riots.
This year the Jordanians are again being asked to help, and it will be interesting to see if and to what extent they will be willing to do so.
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