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(CNN) --
Those who expected tanks donated by NATO allies to Ukraine to have an immediate impact on its war with Russia may have to adjust their expectations.
Having confirmed that it will receive deliveries of US M-1 Abrams, German Leopards and British Challengers, Kyiv is now faced with the logistical and operational realities of incorporating a variety of very different and complex heavy armor into effective combat units.
But first, Ukrainians need to take into account the delivery time.
Even the most optimistic estimates indicate that it will take months for tanks to enter the battlefield in sufficient numbers to make a big difference, while in the case of Abrams tanks it could take more than a year before Ukraine can deploy them.
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Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said Thursday that the United States will provide Ukraine with an advanced version of the Abrams, the M1A2.
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The US does not "have an excess of these tanks in its stock," he said, adding that it will take "months to transfer them" to Ukraine.
Many analysts say it would make things easier for Ukraine to stick with just one type of tank, and that's what makes Germany's decision to let Leopards into the fight so important.
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Modern battle tanks are complicated pieces of weaponry.
With a formidable and robust exterior, much of its effectiveness on the battlefield is due to the sophisticated electronic and computer systems at its core.
These systems locate targets and aim them with the tank's main gun.
Tank maintenance, repair and supply of necessary parts require meticulous training ranging from the crews of the vehicles to the logistics track that supports them, hundreds or perhaps thousands of kilometers from the front lines in eastern Ukraine.
"The tank they can most effectively operate and maintain will be the right choice, which probably means one available in large numbers with less complex systems, running on the most affordable fuels and using readily available ammunition, and that probably means the Leopard 2." said Blake Herzinger, a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Nicholas Drummond, a defense industry analyst specializing in ground warfare and a former British army officer, agrees.
Two Leopard 2 tanks before an event to mark the reception of the first units of the new main battle tank on September 15, 2021 in Bad Frankenhausen, Germany.
"I would say that the ability to train Ukrainian soldiers to be able to support whatever tank they are given is almost more important than what type of tank they use," he said.
According to Drummond, German tanks were designed to be maintained by conscript armies, such as the Ukrainian one, giving Leopards an advantage over Abrams and Challengers, which are used by professional volunteer forces in the US and British armies.
Since recruits have less time to learn during their uniform period, a simpler design like the Leopard's helps reduce the chances of maintenance errors, he said.
long logistic queue
Not getting every detail of that maintenance right could lead to disaster on the battlefield.
Mark Hertling, a CNN military analyst who once led the US Army's 1st Armored Division, is well versed in the Abrams and its capabilities and vulnerabilities.
Keeping tanks battle-ready means not only training their crews, but also all the people in the supply chain who support them, he said on Twitter.
"Those who say 'give them the damn tanks!'
They've probably never seen the choreography to make this work on the battlefield," Hertling said.
"In combat, if you get a couple of things wrong, it's disaster and failure. Lethal tanks become pillboxes that don't move or shoot," he added.
Since the Abrams is American-made, it has "a very long logistical tail that goes back to the US," said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
Key components that wear out or are damaged in combat would have to be replaced with American parts, which would have to be sent to a repair depot in the Ukraine or possibly Poland, which is in the process of acquiring its own fleet of Abrams.
Thompson said the Pentagon is good at solving difficult logistical problems, "but the risk is high for both the US and Ukraine."
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"Think of the propaganda victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin if images emerge of disabled American tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield. Being able to support the Leopards from a European logistics base is definitely preferable," Thompson said.
And that speaks to the number of Leopards available.
According to Drummond, who is an adviser to the manufacturer of the German tanks, there are more than 4,000 in service.
"Replacement parts are easily available from multiple sources," he said.
"Support ability trumps firepower."
The diversity of Leopards' supply sources was made clear on Thursday when Canada announced it would send four of the German-built main battle tanks to Ukraine and, perhaps more importantly, would also provide training and technical support.
Other NATO countries with Leopard in their arsenals include Poland, Greece, Spain, Turkey, Hungary, Denmark, Portugal, Norway, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Sweden and Finland, candidate countries for NATO membership, also have considerable numbers of Leopards.
Drummond also offers a historical perspective on why numbers matter so much since World War II, when American-made Sherman tanks faced off against German Tigers.
"The Tiger was quantitatively better than the Sherman in many ways. But the Sherman was good enough," he says.
"What really gave the Sherman an edge was that it was designed to be easy to produce. With 49,234 Shermans built versus 1,347 Tigers, quantity trumped quality. Today, support capability trumps firepower, protection and mobility," Drummond said.
In warfare, the Ukrainians have proven adept at handling new and often mismatched equipment, combining old Soviet-era tanks and those captured from Russia into what has so far been an effective force.
"As for 12 of one model, 30 of another and 100 of a third ... that's another Wednesday morning in the Ukrainian military," said Trent Telenko, a former quality control auditor for the Contract Management Agency. of Defense of the United States.
"Ukraine is dedicating smart people to its maintenance issues, along with true mechanized logistics and modern warehousing information technology to help track parts with modern 2D and 3D barcodes on its spare parts packaging" , he claimed.
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But the German promise of 14 Leopard tanks is only a fraction of the 300 Ukraine says it needs.
The main German government party said in a tweet on Wednesday that Kyiv's other partners would contribute more to put two Leopard battalions - some 80 tanks in all - in Ukrainian hands.
NATO ally Poland, which led efforts to get Germany to authorize the supply of this German-made material to Ukraine, is one of the potential Leopard donors.
The authorities say that the Ukrainian crews could start training with the tanks they will receive shortly.
But it's likely months away to see them in combat.
"Ukrainian military personnel need to be trained. The Leopards are a very advanced team, technologically, so it will take a few weeks, just the training process," Portuguese Foreign Minister João Gomes Cravinho told SIC broadcaster on Wednesday.
"After that there are logistical hurdles that need to be addressed with allies, so it will take two to three months."
Fighting an existential war
While Ukraine awaits modern tanks, Russia is unlikely to sit still.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Thursday that Moscow may be preparing for an offensive in the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, which will stress Russian conventional forces in place of the contract troops of the Wagner Group that have been operating there.
However, knowing that new tanks will arrive will give Ukrainian commanders more leeway in deploying their current reserves to counter any Russian offensive, according to ISW.
Hertling, the CNN military analyst, also said the Leopard tanks could be on the battlefield in about three months.
The Abrams could take eight or more, he wrote on Twitter.
"But that's lightning fast to deliver (and) prepare a force not trained in these vehicles," Hertling said.
And even if the Leopards and Abrams take time to arrive on the battlefield, experts say the Ukrainian military will need them for years.
"We are seeing the Ukrainian military modernize and Westernize while fighting an existential war," said Herzinger of the American Enterprise Institute.
"So there are decisions being made about what kind of tanks they will want in the future as well, which brings with it a lot of long-term choices in relation to security partners," he said.
Ukraine may not join NATO soon, but it will arm itself as a NATO country.
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Analysts point to the impressive arsenal of NATO-compliant hardware already on the battlefield or in preparation for Ukraine: US, UK and German infantry fighting vehicles, HIMARS rocket systems and other types of artillery. , and Patriot air defense batteries, among other systems.
"This will ensure not only the quantity but also the quality of the equipment at its disposal and will allow Ukraine to integrate more efficiently into NATO and other Western logistics and maintenance systems," Frank Ledwidge, a military expert at the NATO, wrote this month. University of Portsmouth, in The Conversation.
Ukraine will not only have the ability to defeat the increasingly outmatched Russian army this year and next, but its armed forces will be a deterrent to any further attacks by a revanchist, rearmed Russia in the future."
"It will guarantee the security of Ukraine, and therefore of Europe, well into the next decade."
CNN's Hayley Britzky contributed to this story.
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