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Military expert explains Putin's war strategy in 7 steps - "Russia has proven to learn"


A military expert analyzes Russia's strategy in the Ukraine war. He thinks that 2023 will be the cornerstone of Vladimir Putin's war policy.

A military expert analyzes Russia's strategy in the Ukraine war.

He thinks that 2023 will be the cornerstone of Vladimir Putin's war policy.

Munich – German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has often repeated: "This is Vladimir Putin's war," said the Green politician.

Many Western politicians do not even remotely doubt that the Russian president is setting the direction in the illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.

Ukraine war: military expert analyzes Vladimir Putin's strategy for 2023

And so the Moscow ruler is helping to determine the strategy of the Russian military, which, according to Ukrainian information, recently conquered the Donbass fortress Soledar.

But: In the past eleven months, the Russian army has been pushed back far in the south, and in the north-east even beyond the country's borders.

So what is the strategy of Putin and his apparatus for the war year 2023?

The much-quoted military expert Mick Ryan from Australia has dealt with this question and identified seven steps for Moscow's further action.

The retired Australian Army Major General tweeted:

“Russia's strategy to subjugate Ukraine is expected to have seven components in the coming year.

These are information, command and control, military, diplomacy, national mobilization, economics and adaptability.”

In the video: Compact - The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war

Component 1: Information warfare:

"Russian narratives (...) to maintain domestic support for the war and to influence the foreign population were part of the Russian strategy even before the war," Ryan explains on Twitter: "They will be in 2023 continued.”

His assessment coincides with that of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Moscow is taking measures "to regain control over war reporting," writes the ISW in an assessment of a possible major Russian offensive in Ukraine in the spring.

It is probably a sign that more and more Russian military bloggers have had a say in public opinion.

The Kremlin is therefore intensifying its efforts to "establish relationships with prominent pro-war advocates," say the analysts at the think tank.

Vladimir Putin's war strategy: no competing visions in the Russian military

2nd component: command and leadership.

Ryan points out that Putin has appointed Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, a loyal military commander in chief of the troops in Ukraine.

In doing so, he resolved competing visions in the Russian military of how to win this war.

Now Gerasimov must "carry out offensives on the battlefield and force a more unified approach between the Russian military and private military companies like the Wagner Group," writes the Australian. "He must also oversee and integrate the alignment of strategic targets in Ukraine." According to the ISW, the Kremlin is trying to "fix deficiencies in the command structure."

3rd component: offensive military actions.

Gerasimov was not appointed "just to defend conquered land", analyzes ex-military Ryan further and expects an "offensive action by the Russian army".

Not only he: The Ukrainian general staff, Russian military bloggers like Igor Girkin, the ISW and Western politicians alike suspect such a major offensive.

Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn recently told ZDF's "heute journal" that he was expecting a large-scale spring offensive by Russia.

Then Europe and the West must be prepared to provide military equipment, including tanks, "so that Ukraine is not overrun" and hundreds of thousands of people do not die there, said the diplomat at the debate about the delivery of Leopard 2 Tanks to the Ukrainian Army.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's diplomatic efforts were a key element of Russia's strategy in the war.

Military expert Mick Ryan

Vladimir Putin's war strategy: Sergey Lavrov should seek support from China

4th Component: Diplomacy


"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's diplomatic efforts were a key element of Russia's strategy in this war," explains Ryan. "He has made several trips abroad as part of those efforts."

Belarus will probably continue to be a "focal point of Russian diplomacy," he says.

Putin wants to try to promote his own war of aggression not only with the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, but also with China, according to his assessment.

5th component: National mobilization.

An important element of the Russian strategy was the mobilization of the Russian people for the Ukraine war, Ryan explains.

As a result, at least 300,000 Russians were drafted into the Russian military, the Australian estimates from afar.

At the same time, Russia tried to mobilize its industry to support the war.

This will also continue in 2023.

In fact, Putin had repeatedly appeared at appointments with Russian armaments companies in the past few weeks.


Wants to strengthen the Russian armaments industry: Moscow ruler Vladimir Putin (center) in front of workers at the Obukhov plant of the Almaz-Antey Corporation in St. Petersburg.

© IMAGO/Ilya Pitalev

Vladimir Putin's war strategy: Russia wants to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure

6th component: economic warfare.


The military expert analyses, it is also a matter of restricting Ukraine, generating income and at the same time causing costs through civilian deaths and the destruction of the infrastructure.

Since autumn, Putin has had the energy infrastructure in particular bombed.

Ryan: "It's a crucial element of their strategy."

7th component: Adaptive strategy.

Put simply: learn from mistakes.

Russia has demonstrated its ability to learn and adapt its strategy when faced with battlefield setbacks and Western interventions, writes Ryan: "Adaptation will remain an important part of their strategy in 2023."


Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-01-27

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