Tonight's attack in Jerusalem is the type of attacks that have the potential to change reality. It is not only the high number of casualties and the fact that the attack was carried out in a synagogue in Jerusalem on the eve of Shabbat, but the fact that it establishes the fact that the Palestinian arena is in a particularly explosive escalation trend.
The Palestinian media reported this evening that the attack was revenge for the activities of the IDF and Shin Bet yesterday in the refugee camp in Jenin, in which 9 Palestinians were killed.
It is too early to link the events with certainty, and this will become clear during the investigation, when it will be known if the terrorist had any connection to the Islamic Jihad whose men were eliminated in Jenin.
If this turns out to be the case, Israel will have a significant dilemma, because the organization's headquarters are located in Gaza and Damascus, two arenas where any operational activity may have far-reaching consequences.
The scene of the attack in the Neve Yaakov neighborhood in Jerusalem, photo: Olivier Fitosi/Flash90
The security forces had no prior information about the terrorist who carried out the attack in the Neve Yaakov neighborhood.
As far as is known, this is a resident of East Jerusalem, meaning a holder of an Israeli identity card that allowed him to move freely within the Green Line.
This is a critical point, because it sharpens the problem for the Palestinians who live in the capital: on the one hand, Israel avoids dealing with their future in the name of the city's unity, and on the other hand, as a result, it keeps more than 300,000 Palestinians in its territory, many of whom openly support hostile elements.
will cause further friction
This matter will now surely be at the center of the security discussions.
It can be assumed that there will be demands from members of the Knesset on the right to take harsh measures, but assuming that the attack was not directed and financed from Gaza (or Syria), Israel will have difficulty producing a significant response, certainly if it turns out that it was indeed a single threat that acted independently and did not coordinate and cooperate with others.
The scene of the attack in the Neve Yaakov neighborhood in Jerusalem, photo: Olivier Fitosi/Flash90
However, beyond the immediate reaction, the attack raises concern about the serious escalation trend in the Palestinian arena.
The past year has been full of violence and terrorism in the West Bank - especially in northern Samaria - and Israel was required to significantly intensify its security activities.
As a result, in 2022, approximately 150 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank, and since the beginning of 2023, approximately 30 additional Palestinian deaths have already been recorded.
This provokes significant agitation in the Palestinian street and a demand from the Palestinian Authority to act, which led to its announcement the other day that it will stop security coordination with Israel.
The scene of the attack, photo: Jamel Awad/Flash90
The working assumption of the security forces should be that tonight's attack in Jerusalem will spur more terrorists to action, therefore a significant reinforcement of forces is expected in Jerusalem and possibly also in the West Bank (where the forces in the battalion will already be increased following yesterday's activity in Jenin).
This means more friction and as it appears more victims, resulting in the continuation of the trend of violence and escalation.
Obviously, there will now be various international factors that will act to calm the spirits, led by the United States (as well as the European Union, Jordan and Egypt).
Their ability to succeed is limited in light of the weakening of the regimes in the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority's hand is running out, a process that all intelligence agencies warn is expected to intensify in the near future.
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