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Ukraine wants its allies to go a step further in military aid against the Russian invasion.
In this case, more than a step, what kyiv is demanding is a leap forward that few are, for the moment, prepared to take.
Convincing Germany and the United States to authorize the export of their Leopard and Abrams heavy tanks has been a cumbersome and stressful process.
The Ukrainian authorities are now proposing to the White House that it dare to go down a path that many in Washington consider dangerous and technically too complex: supplying the Ukrainian air force with fighter jets.
Oleksiy Melnik, co-director of the Ukrainian Defense Analysis Center Razumkov, reminded EL PAÍS this Thursday that practically every type of weapon that kyiv has demanded has involved long negotiations and intense public debates before achieving it.
The case of the Leopards is paradigmatic, but so was the repeated US refusal since the start of the invasion, last February, to deliver Patriot anti-aircraft batteries: these have arrived in Ukraine this winter.
Even before this war, Melnik points out, in 2018, during the conflict in Donbas, there were already heated discussions about the advisability of handing over the Javelin anti-tank rocket launchers, with the same basic threat: that support with certain weapons will cause greater Russian backlash.
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Last hour of the war in Ukraine
The Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, named last week, at the meeting of Ukraine's allies held in Ramstein (Germany), to the desire of his Armed Forces: to be able to fight with the American F-16s.
In his daily intervention on Wednesday, Zelenski returned to it.
“We have to get the supply of aircraft to Ukraine.
This is a dream, it is a mission, a mission for all of us,” he said.
One of the most used fighters in the world
The F-16s are aircraft manufactured since the 1970s.
Its production is carried out by the American company Lockheed Martin.
There are eight evolutions of the F-16 and it is one of the most used fighters in Europe and in the world — fifty countries have them.
Like the Leopard, the F-16 is a successful war product, and like the Leopard, the government of the country where it is made has veto power over its export.
The White House has the last word.
And a fighter jet is a more powerful killing machine than a tank, as well as being more expensive.
According to estimates from various military publications, an F-16 costs on average more than twice as much as a Leopard 2.
Slovakia and the Netherlands have offered to transfer their older F-16s to Ukraine, pending upgrade to more modern aircraft.
Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Wednesday that his government was also willing to train the pilots.
The Congress of the United States approved last summer a game of 100 million dollars that the US Administration has reserved to train Ukrainian pilots in handling the F-16 and F-15.
The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed last November that it was selecting the military to be trained.
The president of the United States, Joe Biden, insisted last December that he does not want to supply Ukraine with weapons that could be used to bomb Russian territory, for fear of unleashing a world war.
kyiv's attempts to obtain US long-range missiles have been unsuccessful, primarily the ATACMS—with a range of 300 kilometers—but also the less powerful, albeit extremely accurate, GLSDB.
Because of their long-distance flight capabilities, the planes would also fall under the White House veto.
Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the Russian energy grid with its artillery in the border provinces, but has also managed to surprise military targets hundreds of kilometers from its territory with drone bombs.
In December alone, there were two drone strikes on Russian airbases.
“Mutual air denial”
There is another compelling reason that has discouraged Ukraine's NATO allies from agreeing to the demand for planes: the effectiveness of both armies' anti-aircraft batteries.
It is difficult to see planes flying over the airspace of the invaded country, both Ukrainian and Russian.
They are only detected in front areas, and in very short outings that are limited to shooting and quickly returning to their base.
In a seminar organized last September by the US research group the Atlantic Council, US Air Force General Philip Breedlone described the situation as one of "mutual air denial".
Air power is no longer determinative because each side's network of mobile anti-aircraft batteries has nullified the threat coming from the air.
The mutual denial situation benefits Ukraine because its fleet of planes and helicopters is far inferior to Russia's.
According to the 2023 analysis of air power by country carried out by one of the reference publications in the aeronautical sector,
Flight Global
, the Russian air forces have 4,182 units and the Ukrainians, 312. The most relevant to Kiev's credit are the MiG-29 —it has 43 units of this fighter that the Soviet Union developed precisely to deal with the F-16—;
the Su-27 —it has 26, according to
Flight Global—;
and the Mi-8 attack helicopter —it has 16 units of this vehicle designed in the 1960s.
None of this is comparable to the best Russian aircraft.
Melnik and other experts consulted in recent weeks assume that Western fighters will arrive in Ukraine, although they do not dare to bet that it will be in 2023. In fact, General James Hecker, commander of the United States Air Force for Europe and Africa, warned in a statement last September to
Politico
de
that it was technically and logistically impossible for Ukraine to have F-16s before 2025. Hecker extended these difficulties not just to F-16s, but to any Western fighter aircraft.
The Ukrainian military analysis publication
Defense Express
suggested last November that it would be more practical to reinforce the Ukrainian fleet with the MiG-29s that can still be found in countries of the former communist bloc.
The Polish government wanted to provide MiG-29 units last March, but officially withdrew when the White House asked that it not do so to avoid a war escalation.
The Polish newspaper
Dziennik
has published this Thursday that Warsaw did secretly send some MiG-29 last spring.
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