fatal polarization
The panorama is ordered with parallel methodologies.
Together for Change
was born from an alliance where the territorial dominance of radicalism was operative, the prestige of
Elisa Carrió
in the bourgeoisie of the large districts, and the PRO project, which changed the appearance of the metropolitan area with the administrations of
Macri and Larreta
, a cycle that this year will celebrate 16 years of unbeatable hegemony – and that can continue forward because nobody overshadows them in CABA, even if they eat their backpack with the cut in funds.
The method could have been inspired by advice that José María Aznar would give Macri: do what we did in Spain with the PP,
put together everything that is to the right of the left
.
In the country of compulsory voting and with a 45-point ballot, it was the key to the 2015 triumph. It
consolidated a format of polarization in coalitions
, which adopts Peronism applying the same method:
let's put together everything that is to the left of the right
.
The application of the method explains why the Government seeks to identify Cambiemos with the banners of the right, the IMF, the United States, the anti-guaranteeism and the 2x1 of the Process.
And why does he make a
train with the dictators in CELAC
and defends the abuses of human rights in international organizations.
The system resists and contains even the outraged
It is not necessary to look for ideological content.
Neither JxC is the right nor the Front of All is the left.
But JxC is not disgusted by Milei, just as the FdT is not disgusted by what remains of communism, to say it brutally.
It's just a method: neither the government is the left, nor the opposition is the right.
Left and right are outdated slogans that do not deserve to be offended.
They cannot defend themselves
.
This polarization resists because it is protected by the solidity of the Argentine political system, which after 107 years of the Sáenz Peña Law, 80% of society syndicates support for the same two political families, today represented in the coalitions of the ruling party and the opposition .
The indignation that permeates systems around the world does not penetrate that polarization
.
Javier Milei on a tour of the Coast.
In 2001, in the midst of the biggest crisis of the system in history, Luis Zamora, standard-bearer of indignation, was elected deputy with 10.13% of the votes.
His strength managed to get two deputies in.
In 2021, Javier Milei, with the same call for outrage, got 17.04% and also won two deputies.
The two played within the democratic system and have represented sectors of the outraged that do not hurt the hegemony of the two great coalitions, and continue to maintain their ability to represent the majority of voters.
This participation is also a factor in consolidating the system, which is collapsing in the rest of the world.
The keyboard asks if this song will last forever (Charlie).
Nothing is eternal in politics.
The governors hope that the whirligig of Olivos will turn
The
ruling party shoots itself,
like old and neglected weapons, sometimes with disastrous results.
Jorge Capitanich, the most listened to of the leaders of the ruling Peronism, warned it when he said that it is
absurd that they go to a national STEP of the Frente de Todos
, the president, the vice president (if they let go of their braids for once) and two ministers .
Alberto, Cristina, Masa and Manzur, he understands, belong to the same political space and they have to agree
, in any case, who will represent them.
Lastly, let the four throw the whirligig in one piece and raffle off the charge.
Whoever wins, let him go to a STEP where he believes that a federal Peronism should be represented, and in which projects and leadership are disputed for national elections that are heading towards close parity, as in 2015.
Capitanich discussed this over the weekend, to dispel a misreading of his sayings.
They attributed support to Alberto as the only candidate that, if he presented himself to a STEP, the others should be deleted.
One can imagine
what would happen if Alberto goes to a STEP and loses.
His rule would end in August and he would not be able to rule until December
.
And if he won, he would drag the rest of Peronism down with his discredit.
Jorge Capitanich adds criticism for the harsh internal force in the Frente de Todos.
Before May, nobody advances the game
This debate is updated because Juan Manuel Olmos is trying to convene, from Olivos, the governors and leaders of the PJ in a meeting of Congress and the Council for February 24.
That day marks the 77th anniversary of Juan Perón's first triumph in 1946. The recount of wills is not over yet, because it implies committing assists that are only achieved if it is clear what he is going for.
If he leaves to cheer on a candidacy, there will be no meeting.
There are 12 governors who have advanced elections to decouple from the national ones
.
Only in May, when this process ends, will it be known in each province who was left with power in Peronism
.
And those caciques are going to play or not in the assembly of the national lists for the PASO that close in June.
They will evaluate whether the Peronism of the AMBA helped or harmed them in their elections and they will act accordingly.
Waiting for something before is illusory
.
An unwritten law says that, in any game,
the governors always move last and when they already know how the others played
.
It's understandable.
They are the front line of governance.
People do not live in Argentina, which is a pipe dream.
He lives in the provinces.
Cumelén is revived with Larreta and Pichetto
The two segments of the electoral schedule –decoupled and integrated to the national date (such as CABA, Córdoba and Buenos Aires, which will not advance)– also affect the opposition.
This Wednesday Cumelén is agitated because Miguel Pichetto arrives for an appointment with Macri
-
Ramón Puerta accompanies him
-.
Pichetto is among those who believe that Macri should define his presidential candidacy as soon as possible
.
He understands that he will be a computer for the opposition throughout the country to avoid dispersals.
Whether or not he is a candidate.
Furthermore, he believes that programs and casts must be brought forward to provide certainty, that product that the ruling party cannot produce.
Gate goes further
.
He believes that having the JxC formula(s) before March also orders the Peronism of the provinces.
They will know with whom they will have to govern or not from December.
They read the polls that show the opposition to be the winner.
Former President Puerta maintains that the candidates for president greatly influence provincial candidacies, and that it is something that is not usually taken into account.
Mauricio Macri received Patricia Bullrich in Villa La Angostura and this week Horacio Rodríguez Larreta will visit him.
The cumelén privet will move the appearance there of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
.
If he went to La Angostura it was to see Macri, and this Sunday he was already there.
Nothing strange:
if there is a firm pact on the political scene, it is the one that unites Macri with Larreta
.
Whoever believes otherwise is deceived.
Perotti has a turn with Schiaretti
No one was surprised when Monica Fein, the president of National Socialism, appeared with Schiaretti on Saturday.
As an emergency, because they don't work on Saturdays, except in Cosquín, the scene where they took the former mayor of Rosario.
In that appointment, Fein told the Gringo that she has to be a candidate for president.
"The time for the candidacies will come, now we have to set up and consolidate the space," the governor unmarked.
It was the advance of the
most notable gesture of this third way
, after the meek photo of Schiaretti with Juan Urtubey three weeks ago.
This Monday he will be shown together with Omar Perotti in the city of San Francisco, the birthplace of Domingo Cavallo
, but where the dolphin of Cordoba was mayor twice in 2023, Martín Llaryora.
They are going to launch a work that will carry water from the coast to Córdoba, in a peaceful agreement with political music.
It is the consolidation of the assembly of that road, which must be named for which Gustavo Bordet
, who governs Entre Ríos, counts as
a third partner .
That district belongs to the group of the Top Seven, the seven provinces with the largest number of voters;
the others are Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, CABA, Mendoza and Tucumán.
Schiaretti and Bordet claim to have collaborated so that Perotti is governor of Santa Fe. That gives them societal affection to broaden the base of this alternative that, they swear,
will show Schiaretti's name on a presidential candidate ballot
, outside of Juntos for Change and Frente de Todos.
Juan Schiaretti advances in the assembly of an "anti-crack" space and on Wednesday he will meet with Omar Perotti from Santa Fe.
Santa Fe: fire in the engine room of Peronism
The appointment is opportune and with signs and passwords for everyone.
It responds to the old project of a third way, which has skidded at various times in this cycle of polarized Argentina.
This time he is replying to
the summit that the so-called Front of Fronts made in Santa Fe
.
This project, which has been concocted by radicals, the PRO, the Civic Coalition and a sector of socialism in that province, is the threat to the continuity of Peronism.
Perotti suffers from the karma of not being re-elected and must make enormous efforts to generate a trusted successor.
Hence, look for friends among the members of the region who can help you, because Córdoba and Entre Ríos belong to the Top Seven club.
The FdF entente is a fine embroidery that if it closes completely is a triumph of agreement, because Santa Fe is, like other districts, several provinces in a North, South, interior.
It belongs to the normal country that does not share the political extravagances of the AMBA, and has wealth and prosperity
.
It generates generations of Florentine fine politicians to survive and compete.
In Together for Change they feel close to governing, something they almost achieved twice with Miguel del Sel as a candidate (he lost in 2011 with 38.74% to 35.17%, and in 2015 by 31.74% to 31.65 %, just 1,496 votes).
Not even with the Dibu.
Taking advantage of Cordoba uncertainties
As the policy is to walk with a walker, the Schiaretti group finds objective advantages and seeks to take advantage of them to advance.
In Córdoba he has in his favor that Mauricio Macri does not support Luis Juez in the race for governor
.
That is why this Monday's meeting is being held in the city of Llaryora.
It also gives them air that radicalism does not end up solving inscrutable enigmas, such as keeping Mario Negri, one of the best qualified leaders in the country, without a candidacy, as shown by the survey by the Solmoirago firm that this newspaper published this week.
In the net balance of image, Negri is the second best leader of all those surveyed, with a positive value of 6.2 points.
In image, he is the best qualified radical in the opposition, above Facundo Manes and Gerardo Morales.
He controls the party in his province and coordinates the opposition to Peronism from his office in the Chamber of Deputies.
But he is out of competition today, although what Macri and even Schiaretti would like at least to repeat his term as deputy.
He is a successful dinosaur:
at the age of 33 he was vice-governor of Córdoba.
The dissidents of his party intercept some plan for a major postulation, such as being in a national formula together with a PRO candidate.
They call it "province 25" because of Negri's ability to seat whoever is necessary to talk
, and he maintains relationships of trust with Macri and Larreta.
Santafesinos come out with a line of four
To consolidate the format of the Front of Fronts in Santa Fe, not only the ambition to win has contributed, or the managerial task of operators such as Álvaro González (lunga manu of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta but who represents the PRO in the Council of the Magistracy, with the consent of Macri and Carrió), or the effects of the death of Carlos Reutemann, who waged an irreconcilable war with the Socialists, who criminalized the last stage of his political career.
The role of Elisa Carrió also contributes, who finely negotiated her support, with the aim of recovering two legislative positions on the candidate lists, one national and the other provincial.
They will have to comply with her because she adds thickness to the army in a province where she gravitates, as in all large districts.
This release encourages behaviors.
Carolina Losada, the great white hope that won them the Santa Fe elections, is listed as the best candidate
, although she has to decide if she wants the life change that winning would imply.
"One afternoon, I sat Beauty on my knee. And I found her bitter", the poet Rimbaud complained, late ("A season in hell", poem).
Concerns for a national formula have also been raised
.
Too much, perhaps, for his brief political career, which is more than successful.
That is why
the FdF moves with a line of 4 for the governorship
: Carolina, Mario Barletta, Dionisio Escarpín (magical mayor who was from Avellaneda), and Pablo Javkin (mayor of Rosario).
They are going to appear together this Tuesday in Rosario to give the message that they compete, but well, and that there is something for everyone in the cast.
look too
The government seeks revenge against papal criticism
Gift to the opposition, Alberto Fernández unprotected and Mauricio Macri's flirtations with Javier Milei
