The German Economic Institute has examined what the labor market will look like in 2026.
Where is there a shortage of skilled workers?
Which jobs are no longer in demand?
Munich/Cologne - The shortage of skilled workers is not getting any smaller - it will even increase when a large proportion of baby boomers retire in the next few years.
Immigration will only be able to close this gap by 70 percent, according to study author Alexander Burstedde from the German Economic Institute (IW).
Germany is struggling with a shortage of skilled workers: Older people have to do it
"We have to make older people in particular attractive offers so that they voluntarily work longer," he says.
“Otherwise, work will be left undone more and more in the future.” Keeping older people in work is by far the most important lever against the shortage of skilled workers, said Burstedde.
"Roughly speaking, about three times as important as immigration." It is necessary to make the right offers for older people - such as working part-time.
The study shows where the biggest gaps will be in a few years - and where applicants have the largest selection of positions.
There are surprise candidates - because the shortage of skilled workers is spreading.
A good 400 occupations are currently considered to be bottleneck occupations in which the demand for work exceeds the supply.
According to the study, this number will rise to 557 by 2026.
Employees will be sought in these jobs in the future: These are the "winners"
One occupation that was not yet considered a shortage occupation in the comparative year 2021 is that of sales specialist.
Around 834,000 people were employed in this profession in 2021, with around 44,000 there were many vacancies, but also many unemployed in this area (55,770).
When updating the demographic and other known data, the IW study comes to the conclusion that there will be a shortage of around 26,200 skilled workers in sales professions in 2026.
Among other things, the need for cashiers is growing.
However, the sales area is subject to major fluctuations, as the study emphasizes.
The emerging shortage is more clearly recognizable, for example, for painters and varnishers from the trade.
There are currently no major bottlenecks in this area.
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Skilled workers will be desperately needed in many areas in the future.
© IMAGO / Shot Shop
Not surprisingly, the shortage of staff will increase significantly in childcare, social work and care for the elderly and the sick.
But electronics specialists in various areas will also be in much greater demand than today.
Labor market in Germany: These professions are losing
On the other hand, there are also losers in the professions.
Above all, these are the trained bank clerks.
The money houses are closing more and more of their branches, the structures continue to change fundamentally, which means that the classic banking professions are less promising.
There will be around 74,000 fewer employees here by 2026, but this will not lead to a shortage of skilled workers, as the need for bank clerks will decrease accordingly.
In other areas, the number of employees is increasing, but at the same time the gap in skilled workers is growing.
This is the case, for example, with experts in software development: According to the study, their number will increase by 84,500 – i.e. by almost 50 percent.
Nevertheless, there is still a lack of 7,000 experts.
The situation is similar for educators and in the care of the elderly and sick: the number of employees will increase sharply, but not sharply enough.
There will be a gap of 23,000 skilled workers by 2026 for educators alone.
"People continue to opt for jobs where there is no shortage, while jobs where there is a shortage are chosen too seldom," Burstedde regrets.
Many challenges can only be overcome if there are enough skilled workers.
"Otherwise too few wind turbines will be built, people cared for,
List of rubrics: © IMAGO / Shotshop
