China and an invasion of Taiwan: the battle is fought in the minds

A flag-lowering ceremony in Taipei's Freedom Square on August 9 during military exercises in response to Chinese maneuvers in waters close to those claimed by Taiwan. Annabelle Chih (Getty Images)

The image that the world has of Taiwan is usually that of its technological products or its cities, which combine modernity, Taoist temples and street food stalls.

But what really hits when you travel to the island are its mountains.

Taiwan is bisected by a gigantic, leafy mountain range.

There are no trains with which to cross from one side of the island to the other: one has to go around it.

For many, this landscape represents a great opportunity to do nature tourism.

In my case, however, I couldn't help but think that it would be a perfect setting for a guerrilla war.

These warlike musings are not uncommon on the island.

Beijing has been warning for decades that it does not rule out invading Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province that in the future must be reunified with the rest of China.

In conversations I had with a dozen Taiwanese citizens, the issue of the relationship with Beijing is, without a doubt, the one that worries them the most and conditions their vote in the national elections.

The subject of China and a possible invasion is not taboo: some of my interlocutors brought it up even before I mentioned the subject.

Although in Taiwanese cities you hardly see the military or symbols of war, the issue is on the minds of the majority of citizens, who try to integrate it into their daily lives as normally as possible.

Among the Taiwanese I spoke to, there is no unanimous position on whether Beijing will decide to invade Taiwan in the future.

Some consider it inevitable and others that it would be too costly for China.

There are those who consider that through pressures such as the economic one, Beijing can already influence.

There are also optimists who believe that China will end up democratizing as has already happened with Taiwan and that this will reduce tensions.

In the event of an invasion, many were wary of the Taiwanese military's ability to deal with it or the United States to come to its aid.

This fits with the polls: according to the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, only 29.6% believe that Taiwan would emerge victorious from a conflict with China.

Half of Taiwanese, according to National Chengchi University, believe the United States would come to their aid.

The option of a Chinese military invasion is a question mark, but it has become more plausible as Beijing has increased its military power and its tension with the United States has increased.

For now, there are no signs that China wants to invade Taiwan: Xi Jinping's rhetoric on the subject has changed little in substance from his predecessors.

In addition, an invasion would entail exorbitant costs for Beijing, both from the point of view of human lives and economics, as well as international ostracism and sanctions, as a recent report by the CSIS [Center for Strategic and International Studies] pointed out.

From a rational point of view, the costs of an invasion would put an end to the Chinese dream of developing the country economically at the level of the West.

However, in the United States there is a strong debate about whether to leave behind the "strategic ambiguity" regarding Taiwan and China, and officially declare that it would support Taipei in the event of an invasion.

Some analysts believe that this would embolden the Taiwanese government to take risky unilateral actions such as a declaration of independence or a change of the country's name.

Also that it would clearly position Washington on one side, leaving behind the role of stabilizer and mediator that "strategic ambiguity" seeks and increasing China's feeling of a United States that seeks to destroy its territorial integrity.

The most pessimistic analyzes argue that the economic rapprochement that Beijing attempted with Taiwan has failed, the island will never want to be part of China and sooner or later it will resort to military means.

Faced with this uncertain situation, the Taiwanese citizens I spoke to told me that the only way they could influence this conflict was their vote.

Although the two big parties in Taiwan, the KMT and the DPP, defend the

and do not support any drastic measures (unification or declaration of independence), for many Taiwanese voting for one or the other sends a symbolic message.

Those who vote for the DPP believe that this sends a signal to Beijing that the island wants to preserve its autonomy and reduce economic ties and dependencies on China.

KMT voters, on the other hand, see the DPP's tougher stance as increasing the chances of conflict, and the KMT, with better relations with Beijing, represents the best option for maintaining peace and

.

From an economic point of view, the DPP defends reducing ties with China, something that the KMT sees as unrealistic, since a large part of Taiwanese companies depend on the Chinese market.

The balance between political autonomy and economic growth is difficult to manage.

Beyond the role of politics in avoiding a war, there is a part of the Taiwanese who does not see it as realistic that the island can defend itself against an invasion.

Several of my interlocutors commented that during their months of military service they spent most of their time doing cleaning tasks and barely remember how to use a weapon.

The recent extension of military service from four months to one year attempts to remedy this situation.

On the other hand, some military analyzes consider that the Taiwanese armed forces have not made the necessary military transition from a conventional army to one based on the so-called “porcupine strategy”, based on prolonged asymmetric warfare (ironically, guerrilla-style). Maoist) that uses geography, mines,

mobility and small arms aimed at slowing down an amphibious operation and making an invasion unsustainable.

From an electoral and political point of view, it is easier to argue that the country's defense is being increased by large purchases of advanced tanks and fighters, although in practical terms they would surely be quickly destroyed during a Chinese attack.

For now, Beijing's offensive is far from this scenario.

After failed attempts to improve relations with the island during the past KMT government of Ma Ying-jeou, the Chinese Executive is now betting on hybrid pressure through military maneuvers, economic coercion, disinformation and cyberattacks against the most anti-Chinese Cabinet of Tsai Ing -wen.

The upcoming 2024 national elections will also be a battleground for Chinese influence.

For decades, the protracted war has already been fought in the minds of the Taiwanese.

Javier Borràs Arumí

is an international relations analyst and author of the book

(Alphabet).

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